Kungani Abatshalizimali Bengalihloniphi Igolide Nezimpahla?
Emlandweni omningi orekhodiwe igolide laliyimpahla konke okunye okwakalwa ngakho. Phakathi nesikhathi sokusebenza esisodwa kwaba ukucatshangelwa kamuva kumaphothifoliyo ochwepheshe. Izizathu zisho okuningi mayelana nendlela imboni yezeluleko ezihola ngayo kunezindawo zegolide. Baphinde bachaze okuningi mayelana nokuthi i-Bitcoin iphathwa kanjani namuhla.
Ukhiye wokuthatha
Igolide alizange libekwe eceleni ngenxa yokuthi izakhiwo zalo zemali zehlulekile. Ayikhokhi sivuno futhi ayitholi imali yomeluleki, okunikeze imboni eyakhelwe phezu kwesivuno kanye nezindleko zesizathu esincane kakhulu sokuyinyusa nanoma ubani. Lapho nalo lilahlekelwa umsebenzi walo osemthethweni ngo-August 1971, inkulumo yanqamuka ngokuphelele. I-Bitcoin manje idonsela ukuphikisa okufanayo ohlakeni olufanayo ngenkathi igcina ukushoda kwegolide futhi ilungisa ukugcinwa kwayo kanye nezinkinga zokudlulisa.
Ukuthatheka kwesivuno okubeke eceleni igolide
Ukuphathwa kwephothifoliyo yesimanje kukhule mayelana nemodeli yemali engenayo enesaphulelo. Faka imali engenayo yesikhathi esizayo yempahla, yehliselwe kuze kube namuhla futhi inombolo ephumayo yinani. Izabelo zikhiqiza imali engenayo. Amabhondi akhokha amakhuphoni. Impahla iqoqa irenti.
Igolide alikhiqizi lutho. Ihlala endaweni eyinqaba ngenxa yendlala, okuyiphuzu lonke.
Imodeli ayinayo iseli yalokho.
Ngakho isizukulwane sabahlaziyi sabhekana nokukhetha okunzima. Impahla ebinamandla okuthenga iminyaka eyizinkulungwane ezintathu ayilingani nespredishithi, okusho ukuthi isipredishithi asiphelele noma impahla ayisebenzi. Iningi lomkhakha likhethe impendulo egcine ispredishithi.
Izimpahla zithole ukwelashwa okufanayo. Ummbila, iplatinum kanye nodizili kushukumisa umnotho wangempela futhi amanani akho aphethe ulwazi lwangempela. Kodwa ukuchayeka kwempahla akukhokhi mali engenayo futhi kwenza ukubika kube nzima, ngakho kukhishwe kumaphothifoliyo angamamodeli avuna izimpahla eziziphatha kangcono.
Izazi zezomnotho kudala zinegama lalokho okungakwazi ukubonwa yi-spreadsheet. U-Carl Menger, ebhala ngemvelaphi yemali ngo-1892, wachaza ukuthi inzuzo yemali ithwala inani elingaphezulu nangaphezulu kokusetshenziswa kwayo noma inani elisetshenziswayo. Lelo nani elengeziwe liyi-premium yemali futhi iprimiyamu iyonke iphuzu. Imodeli ye-cash flow enesaphulelo ibiza yonke into ngempahla ngaphandle kwesizathu sokuthi abantu babambe imali.
Lokho okwashintsha ngempela ngo-1971
Kuze kube ngu-August 1971 igolide lalinomsebenzi osemthethweni. I-Bretton Woods yafaka izimali ezinkulu edoleni lase-US futhi idola lalithengeka ngegolide ngo-$35 iounce, ngakho irandi ngalinye elisetshenziswayo lalimi ebangeni elingaguquki, uma elingaqondile, ukusuka ensimbi ku-vault. U-Nixon wabe esevala iwindi legolide ekhelini likamabonakude langeSonto ebusuku elalidume kakhulu ngesiqephu seBonanza. Kusukela ngalobo busuku amabhange amaphakathi akwazi ukwandisa imali ngaphandle kokubhekisela kunoma yini ebonakalayo. Izikhungo eziphethe uhlelo olusha lwamaphepha zazidinga amakhasimende azo indaba futhi indaba yazibhalela yona: isikhathi semali yegolide sase siphelile futhi ikusasa lalingelamasheya namabhondi. Kwakuyindaba elula kakhulu kubantu abathengisa ama-equity namabhondi.
Indaba yanamathela.
Insimbi ayizange ibambisane nayo. Phakathi neminyaka eyisishiyagalolunye kuvalwe iwindi, igolide lase ligijime lisuka ku-$35 laya ngaphezu kuka-$800 iwunsi. Abantu abamemezele ukuthi isikhathi sayo semali sesiphelile babukele inyakaza izikhathi ezingamashumi amabili iphikisana nohlobo lwemali abaluphethe.
Okwalandela ukususwa kwesikhonkwane akubanga wuzinzo. Phakathi kuka-1975 no-2007 umhlaba waqopha izinkinga zemali ezihlukene ezingu-201, ezingcono kunezinhlanu ngonyaka, ngokocwaningo oluvela ku-Federal Reserve Bank yaseSan Francisco. Abantu baseNingizimu Afrika abazange bafunde ngalabo abasezincwadini zokufunda. Irandi lalibiza u-$1.40 ngenkathi yethulwa ngo-1961. Amashumi eminyaka selokhu kwamiswa i-anchor asinika ukuma kwesikweletu sango-1985, isibalo eside sangeminyaka yamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye, u-R14 edola ngo-2019 saba ngu-R18.70 ngo-2024. UHayek wabona isimo saso kusenesikhathi. Ngo-1984 wayetshela izethameli ukuthi umhlaba ngeke uphinde ube nemali enhle kuze kube ikhishwa ezandleni zikahulumeni. Ayikwazanga ukuthathwa ngobudlova, esho. Kuzofanele ifike ngendlela ewubuqili, ezungezayo uhulumeni angeke akwazi ukuyimisa. Eminyakeni engamashumi amabili nanhlanu kamuva umhleli ongaziwa wamba ibhulokhi yokuqala ye-Bitcoin futhi wagxiviza isihloko sephephandaba mayelana nokutakulwa kwebhange kuso, cishe esiwubuqili futhi esizungeza njengoba umlando wezezimali uthola.
Izwe elamba igolide emhlabeni
Akekho umfundi onesikhumba esingaphezu kowaseNingizimu Afrika kule ndaba. Ngo-1970 izimayini zethu zakhiqiza amathani egolide angaphezudlwana nje kwe-1,000, cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezintathu zayo yonke into eyakhishwa emhlabathini ngalowo nyaka. I-Krugerrand, eyasungulwa ngo-1967, yasungula uhlamvu lwemali lwesimanje lwenkunzi futhi ekuphakameni kwayo kwabamba cishe u-90% wemakethe yomhlaba wonke yezinhlamvu zemali zegolide. IGoli likhona ngenxa yensimbi. Kanjalo neJohannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), eyachitha ikhulu layo lokuqala ikakhulukazi njengomshini wokuxhasa ngezimali amashafti. I-China yadlula iNingizimu Afrika kuphela njengomkhiqizi omkhulu kunabo bonke ngo-2007, yaqeda iminyaka engaphezu kwekhulu endaweni yokuqala.
Namuhla ukukhiqizwa cishe kuyingxenye yeshumi yenani eliphakeme.
Umbuso usahlezi phezu kwensimbi nokho. Kusukela ngo-Okthoba 2025 iBhange Lombuso laliphethe igolide elilinganiselwa ku-R281 bhiliyoni, cishe ingxenye yesihlanu ye-balance sheet yalo, elaligcinwe njengomgcini ngoba igolide elingelikahulumeni ngokusemthethweni. Futhi ama-akhawunti kazwelonke aphethe isivumo esithulile mayelana nerandi. I-GFECRA, i-akhawunti erekhoda izinzuzo zokuvuselelwa kabusha kwegolide nezindawo ezigciniwe zezwe zangaphandle, yayimi ku-R28 billion ngo-2003. Ngonyaka wezi-2024 yabe isivuvuke yafinyelela ku-R500 billion kanti uMgcinimafa wahlela ukudonsa amabhiliyoni ayi-R150 ukuze asekele isabelomali. Leyo ngxenye yesigidi sesigidi samarandi ayizange itholwe ngokuhweba ngobuhlakani. Yindlela okubukeka ngayo ukwehla kwerandi ngeminyaka engamashumi amabili uma lifika eshidini lebhalansi likahulumeni.
Kukhona umbhalo waphansi wenkathi yezigwegwe okufanele ugcinwe. I-Washington yavala ukuthengwa kwe-Krugerrand ngo-1985 njengoba ingcindezi yobandlululo yaqina, isikhumbuzo sokuthi impahla ephethe iphatheka kalula njengoba ipolitiki ivuma. Leso sifundo sinempendulo efana ne-Bitcoin.
Ngisho nokwehla kwemisebenzi yakudala ye-reflex: ukuthengiswa kwegolide kuphelele kweqe ngo-29.5% engxenyeni yesine ka-2025 ngamanani aphezulu kanye nesidingo sokuphephela. Igolide lakha leli zwe futhi insimbi ilokhu igcina amaphuzu erandi kusukela ngaleso sikhathi. Lokho kubalulekile ukukhumbula lapho othile ekutshela ukuthi izimpahla eziyivelakancane ezingenasivuno azinamsebenzi.
Kungani abeluleki bengalokothi balethe igolide phezulu
Kunesizathu sesakhiwo sokuthi igolide linyamalale ezelulekweni ezijwayelekile futhi akulona uzungu. Akuzuzi lutho umeluleki. Izabelo kanye nemali engenayo engaguquki ingasongwa ngesendlalelo ngemva kohlaka lomkhiqizo, ngayinye ingenisela othile imali. Igolide lihlezi nje.
Amaphothifoliyo angamamodeli ahlanganiswa kusukela kumabhulokhi wokwakha inkundla engawagcina, abike ngawo futhi akhokhise ngokumelene nawo. I-unit trust iyalingana. Inothi elihlelekile liyalingana. Ibha yegolide kusisefo sasekhaya ayilingani ndawo kuleso sitaki, ngakho-ke ingxoxo ayilokothi iqale futhi inketho ayilokothi ifike esikrinini phambi komeluleki. Umeluleki akakuqambi amanga. Imenyu yaqamba amanga ngaphambi kokuba kukhulume noma ubani.
ULyn Alden ubhale leli phethini kanye nanoma ubani. Izimpahla eziyimali eziyivelakancane ziheha imali ngaphandle kokukhokha isivuno, inqobo nje uma imakethe ibona inkokhelo yemali. Ucwaningo oluningi lwezikhungo alufinyeleli kulowo mbuzo. Uhlaka lwahlunga impahla kuqala.
Ingabe igolide lisewutshalomali oluhle? Ukufunda okuqotho
Ukunikeza udumo lapho kufanele khona, igolide seliyimali efile muva nje. Ucwaningo lwezimpahla zedijithali ze-Fidelity luphawula ukuthi ukubuyiselwa kwegolide kule minyaka eyishumi edlule bekuqine ngokwanele ukuthi izindlela zakhona ezilungiswe ubungozi zehlula ukulingana. Amabhange amaphakathi, ngemva kwesizukulwane sokuphatha insimbi njengengcezu yasemnyuziyamu, abelokhu ethenga kancane kancane. Abanye baye badlulela phambili futhi babuyisela imigoqo ephuma eLondon naseNew York baya ezindlini zasendlini, lapho insimbi isheshe ingabi namandla. Lapho abantu abaphethe uhlelo beqala ukukhipha igolide labo kulo, lokho kuwuhlobo lwayo lwesignali. Ngenkathi kuqubuka impi eMpumalanga Ephakathi ngoFebhuwari 2026 futhi irandi lathengiswa ngayo yonke enye imali ezimakethe ezisafufusa, igolide lenza elikwenzile kuzo zonke izinkinga kusukela ngaphambi kwamaRoma.
Ngakho-ke ingxabano lapha akukhona ukuthi igolide lihlulekile. Ingxabano iwukuthi izikhungo eziyichithile iminyaka engamashumi amahlanu zazinephutha mayelana nempahla futhi zithembekile kuphela mayelana nezinzuzo zazo. Lokho kufanele kukwenze ube nelukuluku lokwazi ukuthi yiluphi uhlobo lokukhuthaza oluhlungayo njengamanje.
Umsebenzi ofanayo we-Fidelity wenza iphuzu elithule engithola liwusizo kakhulu ekusebenzeni. I-Bitcoin negolide zibonisa ukuhlobana okuphansi kuma-horizons amade futhi kuvame ukushintshana ngokusebenza kahle ngaphezu kwezikhathi zezinsuku ezingama-90. Abazona izimbangi kwiphothifoliyo kakhulu njengamathuluzi ahlukene. Ngichaze ukuthi izingcezu zihlangana kanjani Indawo yeBitcoin kuphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene.
Ukuphikisa okufanayo, manje okuhloswe ku-Bitcoin
I-Bitcoin ibhekene neshidi lokushaja elifanayo. Akukho sivuno, akukho ukuhamba kwemali, akukho okuzomodela.
Yonke into ekuyo iyiqiniso futhi yonke into ichaza imikhawulo yemodeli kunokufaneleka kwempahla, njengoba nje yenza ngegolide iminyaka engamashumi amahlanu. Ukusebenzisa ukuphikisa okufanayo enguqulweni eqinile yempahla kukutshela ukuthi ukuphikisa bekungakaze kube mayelana nempahla.
Cabanga ngalokho i-Bitcoin ekulungisa ngempela. Igolide elibonakalayo lidinga ama-vaults nama-assay namaloli ahlomile. Ukweqa umngcele obucayi kuthatha amasonto. I-Bitcoin ihlala noma yikuphi emhlabeni ngaphansi kwehora futhi ihlukaniseka ezindaweni eziyisishiyagalombili zamadesimali. Ungaqinisekisa okwakho ukubamba ngaphandle kwemvume yanoma ubani. Esikhungweni igebe likhulu kakhulu. Ukubamba igolide kusho ukuthemba abanakekeli, imibiko yezimpahla nezinhlelo zokulethwa, ungqimba phezu kongqimba lwezithembiso zabanye. Ukubanjwa kwe-Bitcoin kungacwaningwa ku-Iketanga ngesikhathi sangempela futhi kugcinwe endlini nge-hardware kanye nokusethwa kwesiginesha eminingi, akukho okuza naye okubonakalayo. Ngihlanganise uhlangothi lwemali lwalokho kuqhathanisa I-Bitcoin njengemali ezwakalayo.
Ukushoda yilapho isiqhathaniso siyeka khona ukuba seduze. Ukunikezwa kwegolide okungaphezulu komhlaba kukhula cishe ngo-1.7% ngonyaka futhi lelo zinga liyanwebeka, ngoba uma intengo ihamba abavukuzi bamba bajule futhi bavule kabusha imigodi engaseceleni. Amanani aphezulu abiza ukunikezwa okusha. Noma ubani oke wabuka i-West Rand ngokusebenzisa imakethe yezinkunzi uyayazi iphethini. Izimpendulo zokuhlinzeka nge-Bitcoin kumuntu. Kuyoke kube nezinhlamvu zemali eziyizigidi ezingu-21 kuphela kanye nohhafu wokukhishwa njalo eminyakeni emine ohlelweni oluphoqelelwa ngekhodi. Esilinganisweni sesilinganiso sokugeleza kwesitoko esisetshenziswa abahlaziyi bezimali ngenxa yokushoda kwezimali, uhhafu uphusha i-Bitcoin idlule igolide ukuze ibe yimpahla eyimali eyivelakancane esakaliwe. I-premium kaMenger ekugcineni inomkhumbi i-drill bit engakwazi ukuyihlanza.
Abantu baseNingizimu Afrika bazizwa bethinteka kakhulu kunabaningi. Irandi selilahlekelwe cishe ngo-70% uma liqhathaniswa nedola eminyakeni engamashumi amabili, ukuvuza kancane engikubeke kahle. ukuthi kusho ukuthini ubuthakathaka berandi ngeBitcoin. Impendulo kamkhulu wakho kwaba uKrugerrands ophahleni. Umzwelo wemvelo wawuzwakala futhi insimbi isithuthuke kusukela ngaleso sikhathi.
Abantu abasondelene kakhulu nensimbi baye baqaphela. Ngo-2024 ngahlala phansi nomthengisi wegolide namadayimane eKapa owayedayisa ibhizinisi lakhe ngaphambi kokuthatha umhlalaphansi. Ebuzwa ngeBitcoin, akazange anginike impendulo yokungabaza engangiyilindele. Amakhasimende akhe egolide ayechithe iminyaka emithathu noma emine edlule buthule evala izinhlamvu zemali namabha ukuze athenge i-Bitcoin. Wayebuke ukugeleza isikhathi eside ngokwanele ukuze akulandele yena futhi wayesehlala edolobhaneni lakubo e-Italy indoda ecebile. Wayengavezi iphuzu elingokwengqondo. Wayezifundela i-oda lakhe.
Umbono wami userekhodini. Enye ingxenye yengcebo ingeyangaphandle kwesistimu yezimali yasekhaya, empahleni eyivelakancane ungakwazi ukuzibamba futhi uhambe ngaphandle kwemvume. Igolide lenze lowo msebenzi ezizukulwaneni ezedlule futhi lisafanelana nabantu abafuna ubungozi bezobuchwepheshe obungekho; Ngisho uma sekungena. Kuwo wonke umuntu ukuhwebelana kuqhubeke. Ibanjwe ukuzibamba okufanele, i-Bitcoin imvelo yakudala ethuluzini elakhelwe leli khulu leminyaka, ngaphandle kokusabalalisa komthengisi noma ibhokisi lediphozi eliphephile.
Futhi uma imvelo yensimbi isebenza emndenini wakho, gcina izinhlamvu zemali. Vele ucace ngomsebenzi abasangakwazi ukuwenza kanye nomsebenzi abangakwazi. Ngomsebenzi wesibili, amathuluzi ashintshile.
Imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Kungani abeluleki abaningi bezezimali bengalincomi igolide?
Ngoba ayibakhokheli lutho. Ukulingana okulawulwayo kanye nemikhiqizo engenayo engaguquki kungenisa imali ephindaphindayo kumeluleki, kuyilapho igolide elisendaweni engaphansi alikhiqizi lutho. Amamodeli ezeluleko atusa ukuthi yini ebasekelayo, ngakho igolide alivamile ukwenza uhlu.
Kwenzekani endimeni yegolide yemali ngemva kuka-1971?
Abaphathi bakwaNixon bavala iwindi legolide ngo-Agasti 1971, baqeda ilungiselelo leBretton Woods. Idola laseMelika layeka ukushintshwa libe yigolide ngenani elinqunyiwe futhi igolide laba yimpahla evamile emehlweni ohlelo lwezezimali, okwashintsha indlela izikhungo ezihlukanisa ngayo futhi zazisa ngayo.
Ngabe igolide lisewutshalomali oluhle eNingizimu Afrika?
Igolide liye lagcina inani lalo futhi lisasabela ezinkingeni, njengoba iminyaka yamuva iqhubeka ifakazela. Izinkinga ezingokoqobo ukugcinwa, ukusabalala komthengisi kanye neqiniso lokuthi insimbi ayikwazi ukunyakaza uma uyidinga. Ngiphatha igolide njengempendulo ehloniphekile yombuzo olungile kanye ne-Bitcoin njengethuluzi elingcono lomsebenzi ofanayo.
Ingabe i-Bitcoin igolide ledijithali nje?
Igcina lokho okwenze igolide laba yimali, into engaguquki okungekho uhulumeni ongakwazi ukukuvuthela, kuyilapho wengeza lokho igolide elishodayo: ukudlulisa ngokushesha nokuqinisekisa ongazenzela wena. Ngokusebenza igcwalisa indima efanayo yephothifoliyo futhi ixazulule izinkinga zokugcinwa kwempahla eziza nensimbi.
Iyini i-stock-to-flow futhi kungani ibalulekile?
I-stock-to-flow iqhathanisa ukunikezwa kwempahla okukhona nokutholakalayo okusha okukhiqizwa unyaka ngamunye. Isilinganiso esiphezulu sisho ukushoda. Igolide lithola amaphuzu kahle kodwa ukunikezwa kwalo kuyanwebeka ngoba izimayini ziphendula amanani. Ukukhishwa kwe-Bitcoin kuhhafu njalo ngemva kweminyaka emine ngekhodi, ngakho isilinganiso sakhona silokhu sikhuphuka sidlula igolide, iphrofayili yokushoda enamandla kakhulu esakaliwe.
Ithini i-premium yemali uLyn Alden abhala ngayo?
Inani elengeziwe liyashoda ngenxa yokuthi abantu bayibamba njengesitolo senani elingaphezu kwanoma yikuphi ukusetshenziswa kwezimboni. Kuhwebelana ngegolide ngaphezu kwalokho okufunwa ubucwebe nezinto zikagesi. U-Alden uphikisa ukuthi i-premium yemali ye-Bitcoin isatholwa njengoba iningi lemakethe libona izakhiwo zayo.
Yiba ngumnikazi wempahla, yeqa iloli elihlomile
I-SimplB isiza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuthi bathenge, bavikele futhi bahlele i-Bitcoin ngendlela ehambisanayo, njengoMmeleli Wezomthetho we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha ikholi yokutholwa