IRandi Lilahlekelwe Ngo-70% Uma Liqhathaniswa Nedola Eminyakeni Engu-20: Lisho Ukuthini NgeBitcoin
Ukushibilika kwerandi uma kuqhathaniswa nedola akuyona inkinga. Isimo sezulu. Idola elilodwa lalibiza cishe u-R6 maphakathi nawo-2000, u-R14 ekupheleni kuka-2019 kanye no-R18.70 ekupheleni kuka-2024, futhi ngisho nomhlangano onamandla ka-2025 wawubuyisela emuva eduze kuka-R16.50. Lokho cishe u-70% wamandla okuthenga angaphandle angasekho eminyakeni engamashumi amabili, aqoshwa buthule ngenkathi abalondolozi bebuka izitatimende zabo futhi bengezwa lutho inyanga nenyanga. Inemiphumela eqondile kunoma ubani oholayo, oyongayo noma otshala erandini, futhi ishintsha indlela engicabanga ngayo ngendawo okufanele ihlale kuyo imali enqwabelene yomlondolozi.
Ukhiye wokuthatha
Ukonga okwenziwa ngamarandi kungakhula ngokwezinga elithile futhi kusamile ngokweqiniso, ngenxa yokuthi imali ilahlekelwa amandla uma iqhathaniswa nedola kanye nezimpahla eziqinile unyaka nonyaka. Ukwehla kwenani lesakhiwo kusebenza njengokuphindaphinda okuqondile kunoma yini irandi elingenakuyincibilikisa. I-Bitcoin, enenani elilinganiselwa ezigidini ezingama-21 futhi ethengwe kuleli ngamarandi ngaphandle kwemvume ye-SARB, iwuhlobo oluhluke ngempela lothango lwerandi, oluneziqu ezithembekile zokuthi ithwala okwayo ukuntengantenga kwesikhashana. Ifanela ukonga komkhathizwe omude, akukaze kube yimali oyidinga maduzane.
Ngiwubukele lo mdlalo nabahlengikazi baseNingizimu Afrika kusukela ngo-2016, futhi iphethini cishe ayikaze izimemezele. Akekho ozizwa egetshengwa kunoma iyiphi inyanga eyodwa. Ukweba kuhamba kancane, kunesakhiwo futhi kusabalale iminyaka engamashumi amabili, okuyikhona kanye okwenza kube lula ukungaziba uze ume wenze izibalo.
I-arithmetic yohlobo lwemali oluvuzayo
Thatha umlondolozi owafaka u-R1 million e-akhawuntini yokonga maphakathi nawo-2000, wazuza okuthile okusondelene nenani elivamile elivamile. Uma kuhlanganiswe iminyaka engamashumi amabili, leso sigidi sikhula sibe izigidi zamarandi. Ngamagama ajwayelekile kubukeka sengathi uwinile. Isitatimende sibonisa inombolo enkulu ngokuphindwe kane noma kahlanu kunaleyo abaqale ngayo, futhi abantu abaningi bayayeka ukufunda lapho.
Bese ubiza imali efanayo ngamadola, futhi indaba iyashintsha.
Irandi lathenga cishe ingxenye yesithupha yedola maphakathi nawo-2000. Namuhla ithenga cishe okweshumi nesikhombisa. Ngakho-ke inani ledola laleyo bhalansi ekhulile liphezulu nje ngokuzithoba kunalokhu eqale ngakho, futhi uma usususe iminyaka engamashumi amabili yokukhuphuka kwamandla emali yasendaweni inzuzo yangempela yamandla okuthenga ngokwemibandela yaseNingizimu Afrika icishe ibe yize. Isilondolozi sisebenzile, songa ngokungaguquki, sazuza inzalo futhi sagcina cishe indawo yaso yokuqala. Abazange bakhe phezu kwayo. Lokho akuwona umphumela ongavamile noma ukugijima kweshwa. Kungumphumela ojwayelekile wokugcina ingcebo ngohlobo lwemali oluncipha ngokushesha kunalokho inzalo engakwazi ukunxephezela, futhi ngibeke indlela yokwenza lokho ku- empeleni kwenzekani ekongeni kwakho.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali eNingizimu Afrika kufinyelele ku-8.47% ngonyaka kusukela ngo-1968. Ngisho neminyaka eyishumi esanda kuziphatha kahle yenze umonakalo othulile, amanani abathengi enyuke ngo-65% phakathi kuka-2010 no-2020 ngesilinganiso sika-5.2% kuphela ngonyaka. Akekho omashe emigwaqweni engaphezu kuka-5.2%. Noma ubani ogcine imali yesikhathi eside kuleyo minyaka eyishumi usalahlekelwe ngaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yalokho okungathengwa yilawo marandi, futhi akakaze asithole isikweletu.
Iklayenti eselathatha umhlalaphansi e-George langibeka ngokucacile eminyakeni embalwa edlule. Imali yakhe ebekiwe yayenze konke okwakuthenjiswe yibhange, inzalo yafika ngesikhathi njalo ngekota, nokho uhambo olufanayo lokudoba lokuya eMozambique olwabiza inani elithile lamarandi eminyakeni eyishumi edlule manje selubiza cishe kabili. I-akhawunti ayizange imhluleke. Irandi belinayo. Wayengakaze abize imali ayeyongile nganoma yini enye ngaphandle kwamarandi, ngakho ukuguguleka komhlabathi akuzange kubonakale esitatimendeni.
Lolo wugibe emushweni owodwa.
I-Bitcoin ibukeka kanjani ngokumelene nokwasemuva okufanayo
Intengo yeRandi yeBitcoin ithwala amandla amabili ngesikhathi esisodwa. Kukhona ukwazisa kweBitcoin uqobo ezimakethe zomhlaba, futhi kukhona irandi elehlayo uma liqhathaniswa nedola elingaphansi kwalo. Kumuntu ophethe iNingizimu Afrika lawo mabutho amabili awakhanseli. Bayanqwabelana.
Lokho kunqwabelanisa yingakho ukubuyiswa kwerandi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule kubukeka kukhulu kakhulu kunenzuzo yedola eselivele lilikhulu. Inzuzo yedola ilinganisa i-Bitcoin ngokumelene nohlobo lwemali eyayibambe iqhaza kakhulu. Inzuzo yerandi ilinganisa nemali engazange. Igebe phakathi kwalokhu kokubili, cishe ncamashi, ukwehla kwerandi ngokwalo ngalesi sikhathi, lifika njengebhonasi kumniniyo kunentela. Ubuthakathaka obucekela phansi i-akhawunti yokonga irandi yibo ubuthakathaka obufanayo obukhulisa inani lerandi lempahla eqinile ephethwe eduze kwayo.
Ukwehla kwesakhiwo serandi akuwona umsindo wangemuva wesilondolozi lapha. Iphindaphinda ecaleni lokuba ngumnikazi wanoma yini enokunikezwa komhlaba okugxilile noma okulinganiselwe, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi lokho kusho ukulingana kwe-offshore, imali yedola noma i-Bitcoin ngokwayo. Ngiqhathanise leyo mizila emithathu eyodwa ngayinye phakathi I-Bitcoin iqhathaniswa ne-offshore equity iqhathaniswa ne-USD cash.
Isexwayiso silapha ngaphambi kokuba noma ubani afunde lokho njengesithembiso. Intengo yedola le-Bitcoin ishintshe ngamandla endleleni, kanti umuntu waseNingizimu Afrika othenge endaweni engafanele ngomjikelezo usechithe isikhathi eside ngaphansi kwamanzi ngokwerandi. I-stacking isebenza iminyaka, hhayi izinyanga. Iklomelisa umlondolozi owayesabambe ama-drawdowns, okuyinto ehluke kakhulu kunembuyiselo ephrintwe eshadini ngemva kweqiniso.
Ingxenye yendaba cishe akekho oyifundayo
Irandi alincipha ngephutha, kanti nemishini engemuva kwalo yenziwa ngamabomu kakhulu kunalokho okucatshangwa ngabawonga abaningi. NgoMashi 2020, lapho imakethe yendawo yamabhondi imile, i-Reserve Bank yangenela futhi, ngamazwi ayo, yakha imali yokuthenga izimpahla. Ngo-Okthoba 2020 yayisithenge u-R38.8 billion wamabhondi kahulumeni, ixhaswe ngemali hhayi ngokudayisa lutho kodwa ngokunweba ibhalansi yayo. IBhangengodla belilokhu ligcizelela ukuthi lokhu akukhona ukuncishiswa kwenani, futhi ngokobuchwepheshe kungase kube kulungile, kodwa amasu okudala imali emisha yokudonsa izikweletu zikahulumeni abukeka afana nanoma yiliphi igama elibhajwe kuzo. Kwathi ngo-2024 kwavela uhlelo lwe-GFECRA, i-akhawunti erekhoda izinzuzo zokuvuselelwa kwegolide nezindawo zangaphandle zezwe. Yahlala ku-R28 billion ngo-2003. Iminyaka engamashumi amabili yobuthakathaka bamarandi yenze yadlula izigidigidi ezingama-R500, kanti u-R150 wezigidigidi zayo manje isikhokhelwa uMgcinimafa phakathi neminyaka emithathu, ixhaswe ngokudala izikweletu ezintsha zebhange lombuso kunokuba kudayiswe isikhwama esisodwa. Inzuzo yokuhlaziya leyo sayizi akuyona inzuzo yokuhweba. Iminyaka engamashumi amabili yokwehla kwerandi, ihlanganiswe ngobunono ngababali bakahulumeni uqobo.
Akukho kulokhu okwenza iNingizimu Afrika ibe yisikhohlakali. Kwenza kube okujwayelekile.
Izikweletu zomphakathi seziphindeke kathathu kusukela ngo-2008, ukusikhokhela manje kugwinya ingxenye enkulu yemali engenayo kahulumeni, futhi uhulumeni ongaphansi kwalolo hlobo lwengcindezi uncika emalini yakhe ekugcineni ngoba ezinye izindlela zibiza amavoti. Irandi aliphathwa ngendlela engafanele. Cishe yonke imali ye-fiat ilahlekelwe amandla okuthenga ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ngoba cishe wonke amabhange amaphakathi andisa imali yawo ngaphansi kwengcindezi. Irandi livele lalahlekelwa ngaphezu kokuningi, ngenxa yezizathu ezigxile ku-akhawunti yamanje, isimo sezimali kanye nomlando omude wezepolitiki. Nokho, isiqondiso siyefana yonke indawo.
Ukunikezwa okugxilile ngakolunye uhlangothi lokuhweba
Ukunikezwa kweBitcoin kufakwe ezinhlamvu zemali eziyizigidi ezingama-21, futhi leyo cap ayiwona umugqa wokumaketha. Kungumthetho ophoqelelwa yiwo wonke amanodi agcwele asebenzisa isofthiwe, futhi noma yimuphi umzamo wokuyishintsha wenqatshwa ngokuzenzakalelayo, ngaphandle kwesikhalazo. Alikho ibhange elikhulu, umgcinimafa noma ikomiti elingavota ukuthi libe khona. Izinhlamvu zemali ezintsha zifika kushejuli eyabhalwa ngo-2009 futhi azikaze zishintshwe kusukela lapho, zehla cishe ngohhafu njalo eminyakeni emine kuze kube yilapho ukukhishwa kuma ngokuphelele cishe ngo-2140. Abavukuzi bathole izinhlamvu zemali ezingu-50 ibhulokhi ngayinye ekuqaleni. Kusukela ngo-2024 bathola ama-3.125. Ngaphezu kuka-90% wayo yonke i-bitcoin eyoke ibe khona isikhishiwe, ngakho-ke umbuzo we-dilution uxazululwa kakhulu kusengaphambili, okuphambene ncamashi ne-akhawunti engakhula nge-R150 billion ngoba izikhulu zivumile ukuthi kufanele. Impahla okunikezwayo kwayo kungeke kukhuliswe ayikwazi ukusetshenziswa njengentela ethule kubantu abayiphethe. Ngibeke uhlangothi lwemali lwalokho ngokugcwele i-fiat Ukwehla kwamandla emali ngokumelene ne-fixed supply ye-Bitcoin.
Lokhu kusebenza kanjani ngempela njengothango lwerandi
Uthango lwerandi lumane luyinoma iyiphi impahla ejwayele ukubamba noma izuze inani uma irandi liwa. Izabelo zase-Offshore, amabhondi edola, igolide kanye nempahla yangaphandle amagama endabuko kulolo hlu, futhi i-Bitcoin ikulo futhi, ngeziqu ezisobala ukuthi iletha ukuguquguquka kwayo phezu komphumela wemali. Umbuzo wangempela wesilondolozi ukuthi ingabe lokho kuguquguquka okwengeziwe kuyinani elifanelekile lalokho i-Bitcoin ekunikeza abanye abakwazi ukufana nayo, okuwukufinyelela okulula okuhlangene nokunikezwa okunzima kakhulu kwenkatho. Ngibeka inguqulo ethembekile yengxabano ye-hedge in ukuthi ingxabano yothango empeleni iyini.
Lapha imininingwane yendawo ibala ngaphezu kwethiyori. Ukuvimbela indlela yendabuko kusho ukuhambisa imali kude nolwandle, okukudonsela ekulawuleni ukushintshanisa, ama-akhawunti angaphandle kanye nezibonelelo zonyaka ezihlanganisa ukuthi yimalini engashiya ngonyaka. I-Bitcoin ethengwe ngerandi ngomhlinzeki onelayisense yakuleli iwumsebenzi werandi ongadingi imvume ye-SARB futhi engenayo i-akhawunti yemali yangaphandle, futhi egcinwe endaweni ngendlela elawulwayo ayibalwa ngokumelene nesibonelelo sakho sokutshala imali kwamanye amazwe.
Kukunikeza ukuchayeka oziphatha phesheya kolwandle ngenkathi impahla isala ngokusemthethweni lapha. Ithumele emakethe yaphesheya kwezilwandle ngaphandle kwemvume bese uwelela ekusetshenzisweni kwangaphandle okungagunyaziwe, ngakho isiyalo sisasebenza, kodwa indlela evamile yokuthenga nokubamba ilula kakhulu kunanoma yimuphi omunye umzila ophuma erandini.
Lokhu akusho ukuthini
Akukho kulokhu okwenza i-Bitcoin ibe yindawo ephephile yemali yenyanga ezayo.
Akusona isitolo esizinzile senani esikhathini esifushane, futhi intengo yayo kokubili ngokwemibandela yerandi nedola yehle ngaphezu kwengxenye izikhathi eziningana. Imali ongayidinga phakathi nonyaka ayinalo ibhizinisi lapha. Impikiswano yothango lwerandi iyasebenza ekongeni isikhathi eside, imali ongayishiya yodwa iminyaka emihlanu kuya kweyishumi, lapho umkhathizwe yinde ngokwanele ukumunca ukuntengantenga okufika nempahla engaguquki ehlanganiswe nayo. Kunoma isiphi isikhathi sokubamba iminyaka eminingi emlandweni we-Bitcoin, ukubamba irandi ku-akhawunti enenzalo akuzange kuwalondoloze amandla okuthenga ezimpahleni ezinzima. Lelo rekhodi lifushane kunegolide noma impahla noma iJohannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). Kuseyirekhodi elikhona, futhi likhomba indlela eyodwa.
Ingakanani iphothifoliyo okufanele ihlale ku-Bitcoin kuwumbuzo ohlukile kokuthi ingabe umkhondo werandi uyakufanelekela ukuba nempahla ethile eqinile nhlobo. Impendulo yokuqala iphoqa izinombolo. Okwesibili kuncike emalini oyitholayo, ekubekezeleleni kwakho ubungozi, umkhathizwe kanye nalokho osuvele unakho, okuyingxoxo esikhundleni sefomula. Empeleni ngikwenza kube yimali eqongelelayo esukela ku-R1,000 ngenyanga, ngizakhela ekuzigcineni ngendlela eqondile njengoba isikhundla sikhula, ngakho irandi olibeke eceleni iminyaka lenza umsebenzi ohlukile kunerandi olisebenzisa kuleli sonto.
Imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Kungani irandi lilahlekelwe inani elingaka uma liqhathaniswa nedola eminyakeni engu-20?
Ukwehla kwerandi kukhombisa isimo se-akhawunti yeNingizimu Afrika njengamanje, ukwehla kwamandla emali okudlule kwalabo ababambisene nabo abakhulu abahwebayo, kanye nokungaqiniseki kwezombusazwe kanye nezezimali okuphindelelayo. Lawa amandla esakhiwo aphikelele emijikelezweni eminingana nokuphatha, hhayi ukuthuthumela okukodwa. Kuwonga wesikhathi eside incazelo ayicacile: ukongiwa kwerandi, ngisho nalabo abathola inzalo evumayo, babhekana nomoya ophikelelayo wamandla okuthenga ahlangana buthule unyaka nonyaka.
I-Bitcoin yamarandi ihluke kanjani ekubuyeni kwayo kwedola?
Umnikazi werandi uthola amandla amabili ngesikhathi esisodwa, ukwehla kweBitcoin uqobo ezimakethe zomhlaba kanye nerandi liwela phezu kwedola elingaphansi kwalo, futhi ayanqwabelana kunokuba akhansele. Yingakho irandi elibuyayo esikhathini esithile liphuma lilikhulu kunombuyiselo wedola. Igebe phakathi kwalokhu kokubili, cishe ncamashi, ukwehla kwerandi ngokwalo ngaleso sikhathi. Ubuthakathaka obucekela phansi i-akhawunti yokonga irandi yibo ubuthakathaka obuphakamisa inani lerandi lempahla eqinile ephethwe eduze kwayo.
Ingabe i-Bitcoin iwuthango lwamarandi olungcono kunezabelo zasolwandle noma igolide?
Ngamunye wenza umsebenzi ngendlela ehlukile. Izabelo ze-Offshore zikudonsela ekulawuleni ukushintshanisa kanye nemikhawulo yezibonelelo zonyaka. Igolide linerekhodi elide kakhulu kanye nokuguquguquka okuphansi kwesikhathi esifushane. I-Bitcoin inikeza ukufinyelela okulula, okuthengwe ngamarandi ngomhlinzeki onelayisensi wasendaweni ngaphandle kwemvume ye-SARB, kanye nokunikezwa okunzima kakhulu kokuthathu. I-tradeoff wukuguquguquka kwayo okuphezulu kwesikhathi esifushane. Okulingana kuncike kumkhathizwe wakho kanye nokubekezelela kwakho ukwehla, hhayi izinga lomhlaba wonke. Ukubamba okungaphezu kweyodwa kuzo kuzivikela ngokuphelele.
Ingabe ukuthenga i-Bitcoin eNingizimu Afrika kudinga ukuhambisa imali ogwini?
Cha. I-Bitcoin ethengwe ngomhlinzeki waseNingizimu Afrika onelayisensi yendawo ingumsebenzi werandi ongadingi imvume ye-SARB, ayikho i-akhawunti yemali yangaphandle futhi ayisebenzisi isibonelelo sakho sonyaka sokutshala imali kwamanye amazwe, futhi egcinwe endaweni ngendlela elawulwayo ayibalwa ngokumelene naleyo mvume. Ayikhululiwe ku-SARS, njengoba ukulahlwa kuhlala kuyimicimbi ekhokhiswa intela. Ukuthumela i-Bitcoin ekuhwebeni kwe-offshore ngaphandle kwemvume kungathathwa njengokuphuma ngaphandle okungagunyaziwe, ngakho gcina ukubamba kugcwele lapha.
Hambisa ukonga okuthile endaweni engafinyeleleki erandini.
I-SimplB isiza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuthi bathenge futhi babambe i-Bitcoin ngendlela efanele, njengoMmeleli Wezomthetho we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Yenza imephu yothango lwakho lwerandi