I-I-Bitcoin's Place in a Diversified Portfolio

Ingxabano enamandla kakhulu yokuba ngumnikazi we-Bitcoin cishe ayihlanganise lutho nokubikezela intengo yayo. Ukuthi ucezu lwawo oluncane, oluhlezi ngokuthula eduze kwezabelo zakho namabhondi, selwenze ngokomlando ukuthi iphothifoliyo yonke iziphathe kangcono. Hhayi ngoba i-Bitcoin izolile. Kuphambene nokuzola. Ngoba ithuthela esigubhu esihlukile kunayo yonke enye into onayo, futhi iphothifoliyo eyakhiwe ngezinto eziwela ngezinsuku ezihlukene iyiphothifoliyo eqinile kunaleyo eyakhiwe ngezinto eziwa ndawonye.

Lokho okukhombisayo ucwaningo

Qala ngenombolo emangaza abantu. Lapho i-Fidelity -edijithali Assets imodela yengeza i-Bitcoin esitokweni sakudala samaphesenti angamashumi ayisithupha kanye nephothifoliyo yamabhondi wamaphesenti angamashumi amane phakathi neminyaka eyishumi, imbuyiselo elungiswe ubungozi, elinganiswa ngezilinganiso ze-Sharpe ne-Sortino, yaba ngcono. Ukweqa okukhulu kuqhamuke ekuhambeni phakathi kwephesenti elilodwa namaphesenti amathathu. I-Ukuguquguquka kwentengo ikhuphuke. Imbuyiselo eyengeziwe ingaphezu kwalokho oyikhokhele.

Ingxenye ebamba ama-allocators ngokungalindele yilokho okwenzekile ekunciphiseni. I-Bitcoin yabhekana nokwehla okuningana kwamaphesenti angamashumi amane kuya kwamashumi ayisikhombisa phakathi naleyo nkathi, uhlobo lokuwa okwenza izihloko zezindaba. Ungalindela ukuthi iphothifoliyo eyibambe ithathe ukushaya okujulile. Ayizange. Ukwehla okukhulu akuhambisanga neze, ngenxa yokuthi indawo encane empahleni engaxhumene kakhulu ayihuduleli umkhumbi wonke phansi lapho ukhubeka, futhi ukulinganisa kabusha konyaka okuneziyalo kugcina isisindo sawo singanyakazi sidlule umgomo owubekile.

I-Fidelity iqhubekisele phambili i-backtest ende yesikhungo futhi, kwiphothifoliyo esabalele kumasheya, amabhondi, izindlu nomhlaba, izimpahla kanye nokheshi. Phakathi kokuphela kuka-2015 kanye ngasekupheleni kuka-2022 isisekelo, ingekho i-Bitcoin, iguqule amadola ayizinkulungwane eziyishumi ezinkulungwaneni ezicishe zibe izinkulungwane eziyishumi nanhlanu, izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe cishe amaphesenti ayisithupha ngonyaka, nokwehla okubi kakhulu okusondele kumaphesenti ayishumi nesishiyagalolunye. Shift ngamaphesenti amahlanu kumasheya futhi ungene ku-Bitcoin futhi ibhalansi yesiphetho icishe yaphindeka kabili, izinga lokukhula lagxumela phakathi nentsha, futhi ukwehla okubi kakhulu kwehle kwafika cishe kumaphesenti angamashumi amabili nambili. Imbobo enamaphesenti amathathu ebanzi ngokushintshanisa imali ecishe ibe kabili. Lokho kuhweba kuyimpikiswano yonke emgqeni owodwa.

Akukho kulokhu okuwucwaningo olungasho lutho. I-BlackRock, esebenzisa izigidigidi futhi engajahi imfashini, manje ibhala ukuthi ukwabiwa kwephesenti elilodwa kuya kwamabili kungashintsha ngokwezinto zonke ubungozi bephothifoliyo futhi kubuyise amandla. Lapho umphathi omkhulu wempahla emhlabeni eqala ukukhuluma ngaleyo mibandela, umbuzo uyayeka ukuthi ngabe i-Bitcoin ingeyakho engxoxweni futhi iba yimalini, nokuthi imali ivela kuphi.

Kungani ukuhlobana okuphansi kwenza umsebenzi onzima

I-Correlation iyinjini ethule ngaphansi kwakho konke lokhu, ngakho-ke kufanelekile ukunemba. Izimpahla ezimbili zihlotshaniswa lapho zivame ukuphakama futhi ziwe ndawonye. Iphothifoliyo yezimpahla ezihlotshaniswa kakhulu izwakala ihlukene kuze kube usuku kwehla yonke into ngesikhathi esisodwa, lapho uthola ukuthi unokubheja okukodwa ugqoke izinto ezimbalwa zokuzifihla.

Izinombolo zeBitcoin lapha azijwayelekile. Esikhathini eside esikalwe ukusuka ku-2012 kuya ku-2020 ukuhlobana kwayo ne-S&P 500 kuhlale cishe ku-0.15, namabhondi ase-US asebenza kahle nguziro, enegolide elibi kancane. Lokho kuseduze ne-holy grail yokwakhiwa kwephothifoliyo: impahla enembuyiselo eqinile yesikhathi eside eshaya indiva lokho okwenziwa ezinye izinkampani zakho. Ababolekisi bachitha imisebenzi bezingela leyo nhlanganisela futhi abavamile ukuyithola. Nakhu kade ehlezi obala.

Kukhona i-caveat ethembekile, futhi ngiyibeka kuwo wonke amaklayenti. Ngokwesaba kwangempela kwe-liquidity, uhlobo lwesonto lapho abatshalizimali bethengisa noma yini abangayithola kunanoma yini abayifunayo, i-Bitcoin ithengisa nakho konke okunye. Yehla ngesigamu ngoMashi 2020 eduze kwezitoko ngisho negolide. Ngakho-ke ukuhlobana okuphansi kuyisici sesakhiwo esinesikhathi eside, hhayi isithembiso nganoma iyiphi isonto elinikeziwe. Ngabeka lapho lowomugqa uhlezi khona, nalapho unqamuka khona, ungene ukuthi iyini ingxabano ye-Bitcoin hedge empeleni. Emkhathizwe obalulekile ekongeni, nokho, i-Bitcoin isiphendule ekwakhiweni kwemali nokutholwa okungaphezulu kakhulu kweJohannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), futhi lokho kuzimela yikho okwenza umkhono omncane uzuze ukuwugcina.

Ingxabano yephothifoliyo ngamarandi avamile

Thatha owangempela. Umnikazi webhizinisi waseGeorge engikhulume naye ngonyaka odlule ubetshale imali elinganiselwa ku-R1 million, amaphesenti angamashumi ayisithupha kwinhlanganisela yamasheya yasekhaya neyaphesheya kwezilwandle, amaphesenti angamashumi amane kumabhondi kanye nezikhwama zemali engenayo. Wayefuna ukuchayeka kweBitcoin futhi wayesaba ukuthi kuzoqhuma isikhundla sakhe sokucophelela.

Hamba naye izibalo. Isabelo esingamaphesenti amabili singu-R20,000 ku-Bitcoin uma siqhathaniswa no-R980,000 kukho konke okunye. Ake sithi i-Bitcoin yenza okwenziwa yi-Bitcoin futhi iwela ngamaphesenti angamashumi amahlanu endaweni embi. Ulahlekelwe u-R10,000. Iphothifoliyo yakho yesigidi samarandi manje isibiza u-R990,000, ukwehla okuyiphesenti elilodwa ongeke ukwazi ukukuzwa. Ukuntengantenga kwakho kukonke akuzange kunciphe. Okungokwakho manje, okuxhaswe ngemali ukulahlekelwa kwayo kungeke kushintshe impilo yakho, kuyisikhundla esinomlando wokuphindaphinda izikhathi zokubamba iminyaka eminingi.

Iphushe ifike kumaphesenti amahlanu futhi umumo ubambe. Lokho kungu-R50,000 ku-Bitcoin. Ukuphahlazeka okufanayo kwamaphesenti angama-50 kubiza u-R25,000 futhi kwehlisa iphothifoliyo yonke ngamaphesenti amabili nesigamu. Awukhululekile esikrinini, ungasinda empilweni. Ukubuyisela ubamba isigxobo esinosayizi ophusile ohlangothini lwe-asymmetric lokubheja.

Leyo-asymmetry iphuzu abantu abaphuthelwa lapho belungisa isimo esishubile. Ububi bakho emkhonweni buvaleleke kulokho okufakile. Ungalahlekelwa u-R20,000. Awukwazi ukulahlekelwa ngaphezu kuka-R20,000. I-upside ayithwali uphahla olunjalo. Kungakho isikhundla siziphatha ngendlela abahlinzeki bolimi abasebenzisa ngayo, njengokubheja kunohlamvu lwemali: imali encane ingene, imali engase ibe nkulu, usayizi owenziwe ngendlela yokuthi ukwenza okungalungile kubize iphutha lokuqoqa kanye nokuba olungile kushintsha izibalo ze-akhawunti yonke.

Umkhono kufanele ube mkhulu kangakanani?

Iphesenti elilodwa kuya kwezinhlanu ububanzi umsebenzi womlando oqhubeka ufika kuwo, futhi kubantu abaningi abaqalayo ngangihlala engxenyeni engezansi yawo. Kodwa kufanelekile ukwazi ukuthi kungani uphahla lungekho phansi.

I-Fidelity iqhube ukuthuthukiswa okubheke phambili isebenzisa ukuqagela okuqaphile ngamabomu, inikeze i-Bitcoin kuphela ukubuyisela okulindelekile kwamaphesenti angamashumi amabili nanhlanu ngokumelene namaphesenti ayishumi nane nesigamu wezabelo, kanye nokujeziswa okungamaphesenti angamashumi amahlanu. Ngisho nokugoqa kanjalo, iphothifoliyo enenani eliphakeme kakhulu le-Sharpe ibambe cishe amaphesenti ayisishiyagalolunye e-Bitcoin futhi, ngokutshela, amabhondi angama-zero. Indlela ehlukile esebenzisa umbandela ka-Kelly, ifomula yokulinganisa ukubheja okunomathuba amahle, ekhombe cishe kumaphesenti ayishumi kokufakwayo okufanayo okulandelanayo. Izindlela ezimbili ezihlukene, ezifika eduze kwendawo efanayo, zombili phezulu lapho abantu abasanda kuhlanganyela befuna ukuhlala khona.

Angikutsheli ukuthi ubambe amaphesenti ayishumi. Ngikutshela ukuthi izibalo azijezisi isabelo esincane ngendlela i-intuition ethi kufanele, okusho ukuthi ingozi yangempela kubantu abaningi baseNingizimu Afrika ibambe kancane kakhulu. Lapho ufika khona kuncike emkhathizwe wakho, izinzwa zakho nokuthi yonke ingcebo yakho yakhiwe kanjani. Kuyingxoxo yomuntu siqu. Uhlaka lwami lokulinganisa isikhundla se-Bitcoin uhamba ngesinqumo sangempela. Isibalo sengozi yephothifoliyo ihlanganisa izibalo ezimbi eziqotho.

Ukulinganisa kabusha yilapho isiyalo sihlala khona

Umkhono ongakaze uwuthinte awuphathwa ngempela. Imane ikhukhuleka.

Ukuthola okucace kakhulu kwe-Fidelity kumakhenikha kwacishe kwayisicefe ngendlela okwaba lula ngayo. Okwakubalulekile kwakungewona umthombo wezimali futhi kwakungewona uhlelo oluqondile lokulinganisa kabusha. Okwakubalulekile ukuthi ulinganisele nhlobo. Ngenxa yokuthi i-Bitcoin ngokomlando ikhiqize iminyakazo ebukhali kakhulu eya phezulu kunaphansi, isikhundla esishiywe sodwa sizodlula isisindo saso esihlosiwe ngokuhamba kahle futhi buthule umkhono wakho wamaphesenti amabili ube ngamaphesenti ayishumi owodwa ongakaze uwukhethe. Ukulinganisa kabusha kuphoqelela isiyalo esibi sokusika ngemva kokuhlinzwa kanye nokukhuphuka phezulu ngemva kokuwa, okuyindlela ovuna ngayo ukuntengantenga esikhundleni sokuvunwa yikho.

I-counterweight ingokoqobo futhi ngiyisho ngokusobala. Ukulinganisa kabusha kuqine kakhulu kubeka i-Bitcoin intambo emfushane futhi inamathisele i-asymmetric upside okwakuyisizathu sokuba umnikazi wayo. Ivumele isebenze kancane bese uthwebula okuningi kokuhlanganisa. Kukhona ukwahlulela kulokho kudayela, futhi kungenye yezinto engizenzela amaklayenti esikhundleni sokuwanikeza isipredishithi futhi ngiwafisele inhlanhla.

Umbimbi waseNingizimu Afrika akekho omunye onawo

Konke okungenhla kuyiqiniso kumtshali-zimali waseNew York. Faka irandi manje.

Iphothifoliyo yakho ihlanganiswe ngohlobo lwemali olulahlekelwe iningi levelu yalo uma liqhathaniswa nedola phakathi neminyaka engamashumi amabili, futhi isiqondiso eside sesakhiwo asishintshile kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yimuphi unyaka owodwa ubukeka umuhle kangakanani. Impendulo yencwadi yokufundisa iwukuhlukanisa i-offshore, ibe ngamadola kanye nezabelo zangaphandle. Iseluleko esilungile, bese uhlangana nedeski lokulawula ukushintshanisa. I-single discretionary allowance ivaliwe. Awukwazi ukumane uhambise ingxenye yesihlanu yephothifoliyo yakho kungcebo yase-US ngokuthanda kwakho, futhi amaphepha okuhambisa usayizi wangempela umsebenzi wawo omncane.

I-Bitcoin ihlezi endaweni eyinqaba kukho konke lokho. Okugcinwe uzibambele mathupha akusona isimangalo sebhange langaphandle esingasimisa futhi akusona ithuluzi elihlezi ngaphakathi kwesistimu yomunye umuntu. Impahla oyiphethe ngqo, inani layo elihlala ngaphandle kwerandi ngokuphelele. Umkhono we-Bitcoin wamaphesenti amabili kuya kwayisihlanu kuphothifoliyo yerandi, empeleni, ukwahlukahlukana kolwandle okwenzile wena ngokwakho. I-Bitcoin iwusizo kakhulu lapho imizila evamile yasogwini ibambekile, okuyinto ehlala isikhathi esiningi kumuntu waseNingizimu Afrika. Uma ungase uhambise irandi libe ngamabhondi edola ngokukhululeka nangokushibhile, icala lingaba ntekenteke. Awukwazi, ngakho akunjalo.

Lokho kuzimela okufanayo yingakho ngilokhu ngidonsela abatshalizimali emuva kokuthi impahla ingeyani ngempela. Igolide liyazulazula njengesitolo sakudala esingaxhunywanga senani, futhi inendawo yaso, kodwa ngiyachaza kungani abatshalizimali bayeka ukuhlonipha igolide nempahla kungani impahla ehlinzekwayo engaguquki, eqinisekisekayo, ephathekayo ngokushesha yenza umsebenzi ofanayo nezaba ezimbalwa. Kuphothifoliyo, i-Bitcoin ayiqhudelani nezabelo zakho. Lenza umsebenzi ongekho kwezinye izikhulu zakho ezingakwazi.

I-Ukuguquguquka kwentengo wonke umuntu uthola emuva

Ukuphikisa kuhlale kufana. I-Bitcoin iguquguquka kakhulu kwiphothifoliyo ebucayi.

Ingxenye yesokudla. Iyaguquguquka. Iphutha liwukuthatha ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwempahla engahlobene kuziphatha njengokuntengantenga kwento ehlotshaniswayo. Uma i-Bitcoin ingena e-lockstep ne-JSE, ukushintshashintsha kwayo bekuyomane kukhulise ubungozi bakho obukhona futhi umgxeki uzoba neqiniso. Kodwa ayihambi ku-lockstep, kanye nokuntengantenga kokuthile okugoqayo lapho iphothifoliyo yakho i-zags ingesona isici okufanele sibekezelelwe. Kuyimpahla yokusetshenziswa ukuhlukahluka okwenziwa ngayo. Impahla engakaze inyakaze ayisoze yahamba ngokuzimela, futhi ukuzimela kuyisizathu esiphelele esenza ngcono iphothifoliyo. Umuntu obuka i-Bitcoin udla amaphesenti ayishumi kuyilapho izabelo zabo ziphawula ezimbili ubona ingozi. I-allocator efunda ukuhlobanisa ibona injini enikezelayo ibuya lapho i-coreholds idonsa kanzima. Impahla efanayo, isiphetho esiphambene, futhi eyodwa kuphela yazo ebheka iphothifoliyo yonke kunomugqa owodwa kuyo.

Ngakho-ke umbuzo wokwabiwa awuzange ube ukuthi i-Bitcoin iyaguquguquka. Kusobala. Umbuzo uwukuthi ingabe umkhono wawo omncane, olinganiselayo, ongaxhumene uthuthukisa ukubuyisela okulungisiwe ubungozi kuko konke. Irekhodi lomlando, kusukela ku-Fidelity kuya ku-BlackRock, lilokhu liphendula ngokuthi yebo. Akukavunyelwana ngezimakethe okwamanje. Kuya ngokwanda ukuvumelana kwezikhungo, okuvame ukufika kuqala.

Owami umkhuba wakhelwe ukwenza lowo mkhono ube nesicefe ukuba umnikazi wawo. Amaklayenti aqala uhlelo lokonga lusuka ku-R1,000 ngenyanga kanye nesilinganiso sezindleko zamarandi, okugwema umdlalo ongenakwenzeka wokubala isikhathi. Kusukela ku-R10,000 ngibayisa ekuzigcineni ngokuqondiswa, ngoba impahla ephethwe omunye umuntu ishoda ngesigamu sayo. Izindawo ezinkudlwana zingena ku-Vault, i-multisig emibili kwezintathu lapho kungekho khiye owodwa ongahambisa izinhlamvu zemali zodwa. Uma ungathanda ukukhuluma ngokuthi umkhono we-Bitcoin uhambisana nalokho osuvele unakho, bhukha ucingo lwesakhiwo sephothifoliyo futhi sizoyisayizisela endaweni yakho yangempela, hhayi isifanekiso.