I-Bitcoin njengesivikelo: Iyini ngempela impikiswano

I-Bitcoin akusona isivikelo senyanga embi. Yehla ngesigamu ngoMashi 2020 ngesikhathi umhlaba ugijimela amadola. Ekwenzile eminyakeni eminingi wukuvikela amandla okuthenga ekuvuzeni okuhamba kancane okuvela ekudalweni kwemali. Kwabongayo baseNingizimu Afrika ababuke irandi liba buthaka amashumi eminyaka, umehluko phakathi kwalezo zimangalo ezimbili ufanelwe ukutholwa kahle ncamashi.

Umhleli wezezimali waseKapa wake wangithumelela i-imeyili enomugqa owodwa oyinselele, ebuza ukuthi i-asethi engehla ngo-30% ekotini ingabizwa kanjani ngesivikelo. Inselele ifanelwe impendulo eqondile. Iningi lokumaketha elabeka igama elithi isivikelo eduze kwe-Bitcoin alizange lizihluphe ngokuchaza noma yiliphi lala magama.

Sisho ukuthini ngempela isivikelo

Isivikelo sikuvikela engozini eqondile. Yiyo yonke incazelo leyo. Isambulela sivikela imvula. Umshuwalense uvikela umlilo. Umshuwalense wokuphila uvikela ukushona kusenesikhathi. Igama liqala ukusho okuthile kuphela uma usuyiqambile ingozi, okuyilapho kanye izingxoxo eziningi ze-Bitcoin ziwa khona. Abantu bayithenga belindele ukuvikelwa kukho konke, bese bezwa bekhashelwe uma yehla kanye ne-JSE evikini elibi.

Imboni yokutshala imali ilisebenzisa leli gama ngokuxekethile kakhulu kunalokho. Noma iyiphi i-asethi enyuke ngesikhathi enye yehla ithola ilebula isizini, kuze kuphuke ukuhambisana. Isivikelo esifanele sichazwa yingozi esiyivikelayo, hhayi yishadi lekota edlule. Bambelela kulowo mehluko, ngoba wenza iningi lomsebenzi kokulandelayo.

Ngakho yiqambe ingozi. I-Bitcoin yakhelwa njengempendulo yokwehluleka okukodwa okuthile. Mhla zi-3 Januwari 2009 ibhulokhi yokuqala yenethiwekhi yembiwa nesihloko sephephandaba esifakwe kwidatha yayo: "Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." Okwakuhlosiwe kwakungeyona intengo yokudla. Kwakuwuhlelo olungaphansi: imali edalwa ngomyalelo, ekhuliswa ngaphansi kwengcindezi futhi ebanjwa egameni lakho yizikhungo ezingehluleka noma ezingakuvimba.

Lowo mlando unika i-Bitcoin izimangalo ezintathu zesivikelo eziqotho. Ivikela ukwehliswa kwenani lemali, ngoba inani elikhona alikwazi ukukhuliswa ukuze kufanele muntu. Ivikela ukuthathwa nokwehluleka kwamabhange, ngoba iyi-bearer asset engavinjwa noma ithathwe ngaphandle kokufinyelela izikhiye eziyimfihlo. Kanti kwabaseNingizimu Afrika ngokukhethekile, ivikela impilo yonke yokusebenza ichayeke kwimali eyodwa encane yemakethe esafufusayo. Noma ubani oke wabuka ibhange lendawo livala ama-akhawunti emboni eselikhathele yiyo uyasiqonda isimangalo sesibili ngaphandle komdwebo.

Asikho salezo zimangalo esikhuluma ngenyanga ezayo. Lokho kushiywa ngaphandle kuyilo lonke iphuzu.

Kungani i-Bitcoin yawa ngoMashi 2020 uma iyisivikelo?

Evikini lesibili likaMashi 2020 i-Bitcoin yalahlekelwa cishe yisigamu senani layo ezinsukwini ezimbili. Igolide nalo lehla. Kanjalo namasheya, amabhondi necishe konke okunye okunentengo, ngoba ekwethukeni kwe-liquidity kwangempela abatshalimali abathengisi lokho abafuna ukukuthengisa. Bathengisa abangakwazi ukukuthengisa. I-Bitcoin ihweba njalo ngehora usuku ngalunye nokukhokhelwa okusheshayo, enye yama-asethi athengiseka kalula kunawo wonke emhlabeni. Ekugijimeleni amadola i-asethi ehamba kalula kunazo zonke ihamba kuqala.

Irekhodi ngokwenyuka kwamanani entengo kubathengi lidinga ubuqotho obufanayo. Maphakathi no-2022 isibalo se-CPI saseMelika safinyelela ku-9%, esiphezulu kunazo zonke emashumini amane eminyaka, ngesikhathi i-Bitcoin ihweba ngaphezu kuka-35% ngaphansi kwezinga layo lonyaka owedlule. Noma ubani owayithenga njengomlandeli wentengo kaphethiloli wesikhathi sangempela wadumala kakhulu. I-CPI ibheka emuva emananini onyaka odlule. Izimakethe zibheka phambili. I-Bitcoin ivame ukuhamba ngokulindelwe kokudalwa kwemali kwesikhathi esizayo, hhayi ngesiliphu senyanga edlule. Isivivinyo esifanayo sisebenza ngokwaseNingizimu Afrika: uphethiloli unyuke ngo-28.7% unyaka nonyaka njengoba ngibhala, ngesikhathi i-Bitcoin ichitha ubusika igaya ukwethuka kwezombusazwe zomhlaba. Alikho iqiniso kulawa elikutshela okuthile ngelinye.

Le phethini yaphinda muva nje ngoMeyi 2026, lapho ukungezwani phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran kwaphushela abatshalimali ngaphandle kwengozi. I-Bitcoin yashelela isuka ngaphezu kuka-$80,000 yaya kuma-$70,000 aphansi kanti ngaphezu kuka-$2 billion yaphuma kuma-ETF e-Bitcoin aseMelika emavikini amabili. I-S&P 500 yakhuphuka kuso sonke leso sigameko.

Isimangalo sasingakaze sibe ukuthi i-Bitcoin iyanyuka uma izimakethe zehla.

Noma ubani owayithengisa kuwe njengomshuwalense wenhlekelele wesikhathi esifushane wayeyithengisa ngokweqile. Ngingamane ngilahlekelwe yileyo ndali kunokuba ngivumele iklayenti likholwe yileyo nkulumo.

Isivikelo idatha esisekela ngempela

Susa umsindo bese ubudlelwano obubodwa bulokhu buvela. Iqembu locwaningo lwama-asethi edijithali lakwa-Fidelity lakala ukuhambisana phakathi kwentengo ye-Bitcoin nokukhula kwenani lemali le-M2 lomhlaba eminyakeni engu-15. I-R-squared yaphuma ku-0.87, okusho ukuthi u-87% woshintsho entengweni ye-Bitcoin ungachazwa yizinguquko enanini lemali elibanzi. I-Fidelity iqaphela ukubiza lokho ngokuhambisana kunokuba yimbangela efakazelwe, kodwa yengeza ukuthi ibona ukuxhumana kwembangela kungokwangempela ngokombono wethiyori yezomnotho. Nami ngiyakubona kanjalo.

Indlela okwenzeka ngayo ayiyona imfihlakalo. Lapho amabhange amakhulu ekhulisa inani lemali, i-liquidity entsha kufanele ifike ndawana thize. I-Bitcoin imunca ingxenye yayo bese ibeka intengo kabusha ngokulindelwe kokuncishiswa kwesikhathi esizayo, iziphatha kancane njengesheya lobuchwepheshe kodwa kakhulu njengesikali sokwehliswa kwenani lemali ye-fiat. I-United States yakhulisa i-M2 yayo ngaphezu kuka-40% eminyakeni engaphansi kwemithathu ngesikhathi sobhubhane. Ishadi le-Bitcoin ngaso leso sikhathi akuyona ingozi nje.

Umphumela osebenzayo wukuthi kufanele wahlulele isivikelo ngemijikelezo yemali, hhayi ngezibalo ze-CPI. Ngokukhula okukhulu kuka-2020 no-2021 i-Bitcoin yabeka intengo kabusha ngamandla ibheke phezulu. Lapho igagasi le-liquidity liphuma ngo-2022 yehla kanzima. Yomibili le mizamo iwubudlelwano obufanayo obubonwa emaceleni aphambene, okuyindlela kanye isikali semali okufanele siziphathe ngayo.

Kukhona amandla athule ngaphansi, i-IMF ewabiza ngenhlonipho ngokucindezelwa kwezezimali: ukugcina amanani enzalo angempela ngaphansi kokwenyuka kwamanani ukuze isikweletu sikahulumeni sincipha ngokwangempela. Kusebenza kanye ngoba kuthelisa abongayo ngaphandle kokubathumelela ngisho i-akhawunti. I-asethi enenani elimisiwe iphambene ngokwesakhiwo nalolo hlelo, yingakho ngigcina impikiswano yenani elimisiwe maphakathi nengxoxo yeklayenti ngalinye.

Inguqulo yaseNingizimu Afrika yale nkinga

Ukwenyuka kwamanani eNingizimu Afrika bekungu-8.47% ngonyaka ngokwesilinganiso kusukela ngo-1968. Kwathinta u-20.7% ngoJanuwari 1986. Ngisho neshumi leminyaka lakamuva eliziphathe kahle lenza umonakalo othule: amanani entengo kubathengi enyuka ngo-65% phakathi kuka-2010 no-2020 ngesilinganiso esingu-5.2% nje ngonyaka. Akekho owazizwa ephangiwe kunoma iyiphi inyanga eyodwa yalelo shumi leminyaka. Noma ubani owagcina okongiwe kwesikhathi eside ngokheshi walahlekelwa ngaphezu kwengxenye yesithathu yamandla akhe okuthenga. Kusukela ngoMeyi 2026 izinga elisemthethweni selibuyele ku-4.5%, liphushwa ikakhulukazi uphethiloli.

Irandi lixoxa indaba efanayo ngenye ingoni. Lasuka ku-R14 ngedola ekupheleni kuka-2019 laya ku-R18.70 eminyakeni emihlanu kamuva. Ukunika imali eyefanele, u-2025 waba ngunyaka wayo omuhle kunayo yonke kusukela ngo-2009, ukusimama okungu-14% okwayibuyisela eduze kuka-R16.50. Ukusimama kuyenzeka. Isiqondiso sesakhiwo eminyakeni engamashumi amabili asishintshanga, ukushelela okuhamba kancane engikuchaze kahle ku-okushiwo wukushelela kwerandi ngo-70% nge-Bitcoin. Owongayo okhetha isu leshumi leminyaka elizayo kufanele akale irekhodi lamashumi amabili edlule.

Bese kuba khona ingxenye yendaba cishe engafundwa muntu. NgoMashi 2020 i-SARB yangena emakethe yamabhondi eyayimile yamemezela, ngamazwi ayo, ukuthi izodala imali ukuthenga ama-asethi. Ngo-Okthoba 2020 yayisithenge amabhondi kahulumeni angu-R38.8 billion. Ishidi layo lebhalansi lakhula cishe ngo-15% ngoMashi kuphela. IBhange lilokhu ligcizelela ukuthi lokhu kwakungekhona ukukhululwa kwemali ngobuningi.

Ngo-2024 kwafika uhlelo lwe-GFECRA. Leyo akhawunti ibhala inzuzo yokulinganiswa kabusha kwegolide nemali yangaphandle egciniwe yezwe. Yayihleli ku-minus R28 billion ngo-2003. Ngo-2024 yayisikhule yadlula u-R500 billion, ikakhulukazi ngoba irandi lalilokhu liwa. U-R150 billion wayo manje ukhokhelwa kuMgcinimafa eminyakeni emithathu, ungaxhaswa ngokuthengisa okugciniwe kodwa ngokudala izikweletu ezintsha zebhange elikhulu. Osomnotho abafunda le ndlela yokusebenza baveza ukuthi umphumela weshidi lebhalansi ufana nokukhululwa kwemali ngobuningi, noma ngabe uthwele liphi igama. Ngo-Okthoba 2025 imali ebanzi yayikhula ngo-7.5% ngonyaka, no-R22.4 billion wokukhula kwenyanga eyodwa uvela ezimangalweni ezintsha emkhakheni kahulumeni.

Inzuzo yokulinganiswa kabusha engaka akuyona inzuzo yokuhweba. Ingamashumi amabili eminyaka yobuthaka berandi, ebhalwe kahle ngababhali bamabhuku bombuso uqobo.

Akukho kulokhu okwenza iNingizimu Afrika ibe yisigebengu. Kuyenza ibe yinto ejwayelekile. Isikweletu somphakathi cishe siphindeke kathathu kusukela ngo-2008 saya cishe ku-75% we-GDP. Ukusikhokhela manje kudla ingxenye yesihlanu yemali engenayo kahulumeni. Ohulumeni abangaphansi kwaleyo ngcindezi bagcina bencike emalini yabo, ngoba ezinye izindlela zibiza amavoti. Umbuzo kowongayo wukuthi ngabe yonke irandi eyisilinganiselo kufanele ihlale yini ngaphakathi kwalolo hlelo, ukukhetha engikuqhathanise ezindleleni ezintathu ku-I-Bitcoin uma iqhathaniswa namasheya aphesheya nokheshi we-USD.

Ivelaphi indlala

Isivikelo sisebenza, lapho sisebenza, ngenxa yesinqumo esisodwa sokuklama. Akusoze kwaba khona i-bitcoin engaphezu kwezigidi ezingu-21. Ngalenza leli phuzu ku-I-The Strategic Reserve ukuthi umkhawulo akuwona umhlahlandlela. Kungumthetho ophoqelelwa yi-node ephelele ngayinye esebenzisa isofthiwe. Noma yimuphi umzamo wokuwushintsha uchithwa ngokuzenzakalela, ngaphandle kokwedluliswa kwecala.

Inani elisha lifika ngeshedyuli engaphenduli muntu. Njalo ngamabhulokhi angu-210,000, cishe njalo eminyakeni emine, izinga lokukhishwa lehla ngesigamu. Abavukuzi bathola i-bitcoin entsha engu-50 ngebhulokhi ngo-2009. Kusukela ngo-2024 bathola u-3.125. Cishe ngonyaka ka-2140 ukukhishwa kuma ngokuphelele. Ngaphezu kuka-90% wayo yonke i-bitcoin eyoke ibe khona isikhishiwe kakade, ngakho umbuzo wokuncishiswa usuxazululwe kakade ngokwengxenye enkulu. Noma ubani angahlola lelo nani ngesikhathi sangempela ekhompyutheni yasekhaya, ngaphandle kwemibiko yempahla futhi kungekho muntu okumele wethenjwe. Igolide alikwazi ukusho okufanayo: lapho intengo igijima, abavukuzi bemba bajule futhi inani liyaphendula. Inani le-Bitcoin aliphenduli lutho.

Imithetho engenababusi kuhlala kuyincazelo emfushane eneqiniso engiyaziyo.

Lokho i-Bitcoin engeke ikuvikele

I-Bitcoin ayikuvikeli ukungabekezeli. Ayikuvikeli ukuthenga phezulu ngesikhwama sakho sesimo esiphuthumayo noma ukubheka intengo njalo ekuseni uze uphuke. Ukuguquguquka akulona iphutha elilinde ukulungiswa. Kuyizindleko zokubamba i-asethi yemali esencane ngesikhathi umhlaba uphikisana ngokuthi ibiza malini, iphuzu engilichaza ku-okushiwo ngempela wukuguquguquka kwe-Bitcoin.

Futhi ayiwuvikeli umbono wesikhathi ongalungile. Ikalwa ezinsukwini ezingu-30 ingabukeka inobungozi. Ikalwa eminyakeni eyisishiyagalombili ihlaze cishe konke okunye. Sonke isikhathi sokubamba seminyaka emine emlandweni we-Bitcoin siphele siphezulu kunalapho saqala khona, irekhodi engingasoze ngathembisa ukuthi lizoqhubeka kodwa futhi engingeke ngenze sengathi alikho. Umlawuli udinga ukuthi ngikukhumbuze ukuthi ama-crypto asset anengozi enkulu. Umthetho wami uqinile nakakhulu: umbono ongenani weminyaka emihlanu kuya kweyishumi noma kungabikho sikhundla nhlobo.

Yenza i-asethi ihambisane nesibopho

Ukuvikela okuhle kuqala ngokwenza ithuluzi lihambisane nenkinga. Uma inkinga iyinkokhelo ye-SARS efanele emavikini ayisithupha, i-Bitcoin iyithuluzi elingalungile laleyo mali. Uma inkinga iwukuthi irandi elise-akhawuntini yakho yokonga lizothenga okuncane ngo-2031 kunalokho elikuthenga namuhla, i-Bitcoin ingelinye lamathuluzi ambalwa aklanyelwe lokho kanye. Empeleni ngiyihlela njengokuqongelela okuzinzile kwanyanga zonke kusukela ku-R1,000 ngenyanga, kwakheke kuye ekuzigcineleni okuqondiswayo kusukela ku-R10,000, lapho izici ze-bearer asset ziqala khona ukusebenza ngempela. Izikhundla ezinkulu zifanelwe yi-Vault, ukusethwa kwe-multisig ye-2-ku-3 lapho kungekho khiye owodwa ongahambisa izinhlamvu wodwa. Ukucabanga okufanayo kukhula kusuka ku-oda lokukhokha lwanyanga zonke kuye ekuthengeni kwe-OTC kwakanye nganoma yibuphi ubukhulu. Ukuthi isikhundla sibe sihlala kanjani eduze kwamasheya aphesheya nokheshi kungumbuzo ohlukile, engiwuphendula ku-indawo ye-Bitcoin kwiphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene.

Umhleli waseKapa wathola inguqulo emfushane yakho konke lokhu empendulweni yami. I-Bitcoin ngeke iyenze ibushelelezi ikota yakho. Yakhelwe ukuvikela iminyaka yakho, ixhaswe ngemali oyibekele iminyaka ngamabomu. Nquma ukuthi yimaphi amarandi akho enza muphi umsebenzi, bese uvikela lawo anesikhathi ezandleni zawo.