I-Bitcoin vs Offshore Equity vs Imali Ye-USD: Izindlela Ezintathu Abantu BaseNingizimu Afrika Bavikela Umcebo Engozini YamaRandi
Umuntu waseNingizimu Afrika owagcina yonke irandi ayeyongile erandini iminyaka engamashumi amabili edlule ukhule ehlupheka buthule kodwa engenzi lutho olubi. Umuzwa wemvelo wokubamba ingcebo ngaphandle kwemali awuyona i-paranoia. I-arithmetic. I-Offshore equity, imali yedola kanye ne-Bitcoin yimizila emithathu engiyibona kakhulu, futhi ayishintsheki. Lona ukwethembeka ohlangothini ngalunye engilusebenzisayo kumakhasimende, ekufinyeleleni, ekulawuleni ukushintshanisa kanye nokuthi umuntu ngamunye ubuyisele ini ngempela ngerandi.
Ukhiye wokuthatha
Kule minyaka eyishumi kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-2025 bobathathu bashaya ukheshi werandi, kodwa amaphrofayili abengeke ahluke kakhulu. Imali yedola ibuye cishe ku-85 kuya ku-100% ngokwemibandela yerandi nokuntengantenga okuphansi kakhulu. I-offshore equity ngokusebenzisa izinkomba zomhlaba wonke ibuyise cishe u-550 kuya ku-650% ngokuguquguquka okumaphakathi. I-Bitcoin ibuyile endaweni engu-60,000% nokudonsa kanzima ngokwanele ukunyakazisa noma ngubani onganqumanga kusenesikhathi ukubamba. Impendulo evikelekile akuvamile ukuba ibe eyodwa kwezintathu. Kuyingxube elinganiselwe kulokho ongakwazi ukukubamba ngonyaka omubi. Amanani ayahlawumbisela futhi awomongo kuphela, futhi ukusebenza kwesikhathi esidlule akuwona umhlahlandlela wesikhathi esizayo.
Irandi lenza umsebenzi onzima lapha. Yasuka ku-R14 yaya edolani ekupheleni kuka-2019 yaya ku-R18.70 eminyakeni emihlanu kamuva, kanye ne-Drift yeminyaka eyishumi engayibeka. ukuthi i-slide sika-70% serandi sisho ukuthini ngeBitcoin yisizathu sokuthi impahla yemali eqinile ingakhuphuka ngamatemu erandi kuyilapho ingenzi lutho ngokwayo. Yonke inketho engezansi iwukuhweba ngokwengxenye ngemali, eyamukelwe noma cha.
I-Offshore equity: ibhentshimakhi emisiwe
I-Offshore equity iwumzila abatshalizimali abaningi baseNingizimu Afrika asebewazi kakade, ngokuvamile ngokuchayeka kwinkomba yomhlaba wonke kunokucosha isitoko. Iyahlonishwa, iqondwa kahle futhi kulula ukuyifinyelela. Umtshali-zimali wakuleli angabamba izinkampani zomhlaba wonke esebenzisa isikhwama esisohlwini lweJohannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) ngaphandle kokuvula i-akhawunti yemali yakwamanye amazwe, noma athuthe imali yemali aye kude nolwandle ngaphansi kwesibonelelo sonyaka sokutshalwa kwezimali kwamanye amazwe, okwamanje u-R10 million kanye ne-R1 million single discretionary allowance ngonyaka. Kubantu abaningi lolo silingi alukaze lubophe. Ngedlanzana elinamabhalansi amakhulu, liyakwenza, futhi kuyisizathu sokuthi imali ye-offshore kanye ne-Bitcoin bagcine sebesengxoxweni yokuhlela efanayo kaningi kunalokho obungakulindela, iphuzu engiqhubeka nalo. ukuthi i-offshore allowance kanye ne-Bitcoin zihlangana kanjani.
NgokweRandi kusukela ngo-2015 kuya ku-2025 inkomba yomhlaba wonke ebanzi yabuya endaweni engaba ngu-550 kuya ku-650%, nokusebenza okuqinile kwedola kukhuliswe ngokuwa kwerandi. Lowo umphumela omuhle kakhulu futhi anginaso isithakazelo sokukhuluma nanoma ubani ngawo. Izabelo zomhlaba wonke zisemaphothifoliyo abucayi kakhulu.
Iziqu eziqotho ukuhlobana. Enkingeni yangempela yomhlaba, izabelo zaphesheya kwezilwandle zivame ukuwa eduze kwayo yonke enye into, okususa ukuhlukahluka lapho ububala khona. Kukhona nesexwayiso esithule futhi. Ucwaningo lwesikhungo ngincike kumanothi wokuthi izabelo zomhlaba wonke manje zihweba ngezilinganiso eziphakeme ngokomlando, ngesilinganiso esilungiswa umjikelezo senani ukuya-kumaholo emazingeni, esikhathini esidlule, asandulele ukubuyiselwa okungaphansi kwesilinganiso kule minyaka eyishumi elandelayo. Akukho kulokhu okwenza ukulingana kube iphutha. Kwenza iminyaka eyishumi eqinile ngemuva kwethu isithembiso esibi mayelana neminyaka eyishumi ezayo.
Ngangineklayenti eGeorge elalinebhizinisi elincane lokukhiqiza futhi lenze konke okwakucelwa incwadi. Isikhwama sezimo eziphuthumayo, i-offshore unit trust, ifulethi eliqashisayo, indawo. Ayengakaze akwenze ukubuza ukuthi sonke isakhiwo simvikele kukhoni, futhi impendulo yayincane kunalokho ayekucabanga, ngoba ngoMashi 2020 uvalo isikhwama sakhe se-offshore kanye namasheya akhe endawo awela esontweni elifanayo. Ukwehlukahlukana ezinkampanini zonkana akufani nokuhlukahluka kobungcuphe obumkhathazayo, okwakuwuhlobo lwemali kanye nohlelo lwemali ngaphansi kwalo. Lokho kuyinkinga ehlukile futhi idinga ithuluzi elihlukile.
Imali ye-USD: ilula, izinzile futhi incipha buthule
Ukubamba ama-dollar kuwuthango olusobala kakhulu olukhona. Uphethe amadola, irandi liyaba ntekenteke, inani lerandi lemali oyibambe likhuphuka, futhi ayikho ingozi yokutshala imali ngaphandle komnyakazo ngokwawo. Ukuyimisa kusho i-akhawunti yemali yangaphandle enebhange lendawo noma i-akhawunti ye-offshore, okungamafomu ambalwa kunediphozithi yasekhaya kodwa ayikho into engavamile.
NgamaRandi eminyakeni eyishumi efanayo i-iDola cash position yabuya cishe ku-85 kuya ku-100%, cishe yonke into yayihamba ngokwemali njengoba irandi lehla uma liqhathaniswa nedola, isivuno semakethe yemali sengeza inani elincane phezulu. Idrama ethembekile, ewuketshezi, ephansi.
Bese kulandela izinhlanzi ezingathengiswa muntu. Imali yedola ayiyona impahla yokukhula. Ikalwa ngamadola angempela, ngemuva kokwehla kwamandla emali eMelika, abanikazi bemali balahlekelwe amandla okuthenga eminyakeni yakamuva, ngenxa yokuthi amanani ase-US awazange ahambisane nezintengo ngokungaguquki. Iphuzu akulona lendawo. Imali yanoma iyiphi i-flavour iqinisekisiwe ukuthi izolahlekelwa inani langempela uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kudlula inzalo eyitholayo, okuyimpikiswano yonke engiyibekayo. empeleni kwenzekani ekongeni kwakho. Amadola alungisa inkinga yerandi. Abayilungisi inkinga yemali.
Ngakho-ke phatha imali ye-iDola njengoba injalo. Isitolo esizinzile semali eseduze kanye nomthombo wemali engenayo, hhayi imoto yokuhlanganisa ingcebo phakathi neminyaka eyishumi.
I-Bitcoin: inzuzo ephezulu kakhulu, nokubamba okunzima kakhulu
I-Bitcoin iyintsha kakhulu kulawa amathathu futhi ivame ukuchithwa ngaphambi kokuthi iqhathaniswe kahle. Ithengwe ngerandi ngomhlinzeki wendawo onelayisensi ayidingi i-akhawunti yemali yangaphandle futhi ayidingi mvume ye-SARB yokuthenga ngokwayo, ngoba lokho kuthenga kuthathwa njengokuthengiselana kwasekhaya. I-FICA evamile kanye namasheke okulwa nokushushumbiswa kwemali ayasebenza futhi konke okunikezwayo kuhlala kukhokhiswa intela ye-SARS, kodwa ayikho imali yokutshala izimali yangaphandle yonyaka edla ukuthengwa kwerandi lasekhaya ngendlela ekhona yokuhambisa imali emazweni ogu. Ku-access mechanics iyodwa ihlezi esigabeni esihlukile kwezinye ezimbili.
NgamaRandi phakathi kuka-2015 no-2025 i-Bitcoin ibuyile endaweni engu-60,000%, ibeka ukwazisa kwayo kwedola phezu kokwehla kwerandi ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukwehla kwemali efanayo engiyiqhathanise kuzo zonke izigaba zempahla I-Bitcoin iqhathaniswa ne-JSE ngokumelene nempahla. Inombolo ingaphandle kokuhlangenwe nakho okuvamile kangangokuthi abantu abaningi bathatha iphutha lokuthayipha. Akuyona i-typo, futhi iza nesexwayiso esiphrintwe ngefonti yosayizi ofanayo: ukuguquguquka okukhiqize nakho kuyamangalisa. I-Bitcoin ihlangabezane nembibizane yokudonsela phansi ngo-76% ngo-2014 kanye nama-57% ngo-2018, kanye nezinye ezimbalwa ziwela ngaphezu kwesigamu senani layo, kanti isibalo seminyaka eyishumi singesomtshali-zimali ohlale kuzo zonke ngaphandle kokudayisa. Noma ubani owayedayisa ebusika akazange ayithole.
Nakhu okunikeza i-Bitcoin isimangalo akekho omunye ongasifanisa. Kuyoke kube nezinhlamvu zemali eziyizigidi ezingu-21 kuphela, umkhawulo ongaphoqelelwa isithembiso sebhange elikhulu kodwa amashumi ezinkulungwane zamanodi azimele asebenzisa isofthiwe, noma iyiphi enye yazo enqaba ukushintshwa komthetho ngokuzenzakalelayo futhi ngaphandle kwesikhalazo. Ngaphezu kuka-90% walokho okunikezwayo sekukhishiwe kakade, ohlelweni oluba ngohhafu njalo eminyakeni emine futhi lungaphenduli muntu. Uma kuqhathaniswa nerandi okutholakala kulo kukhula noma nini lapho uhulumeni ekubona kulula, lolo silingi yilona phuzu lonke.
Isithombe sokulawula ukushintshaniswa kufanele sishiwo ngokusobala, ngoba yilapho abantu bethuka khona. Ukuthenga nokubamba i-Bitcoin ngamarandi endaweni kuhlanzekile futhi akudingi ukusayina kwe-SARB. Ukuhambisa i-Bitcoin ngaphesheya komngcele, ukuyithumela phesheya kolwandle noma ukuyithola phesheya, iwela ngaphansi kwemithetho yokugeleza kwezimali eqiniswe ngo-2025 no-2026 futhi iphathwa ngendlela efanayo njengokuhwebelana kwemali yangaphandle. Kumtshali-zimali ojwayelekile owakha isikhundla sendawo, akukho kulokhu okuhlabayo. Kunoma ubani onomsebenzi wangempela wokuwela imingcele, kufanelekile ukuqonda imithetho ethile ngaphambi kokwenza umsebenzi kunangemva kwalokho.
Isifinyezo esihlangene
Bobathathu bashaye imali yamarandi kule minyaka eyishumi. Ingxabano imayelana nokuma kwalokho kudlula ukusebenza kahle, hhayi ukuthi kwenzekile.
Imali yedola inikeze isivikelo esizinzile, esifinyeleleka kakhulu, esinokuguquguquka okuphansi kanye nembuyiselo ephansi kakhulu. I-Offshore equity inikeze ukukhula okuqinile kwesikhathi eside ekuguquguqukeni okusesilinganisweni futhi isalokhu kuyinketho eyaziwa kakhulu kubatshalizimali bendawo. I-Bitcoin inikeze imbuyiselo ephakeme kakhulu, ngokushintshashintsha okukhulu kakhulu, kanye nerekhodi elifushane kunawo wonke kulawa amathathu. Okushiwo yi-Bitcoin ukuthi akukho okunye okungakwazi ukuhlinzeka okungekho igunya lemali elinganwetshwa, okuwuhlobo oluhlukile lokuvikela ekubeni nje ubunikazi bemali ehlukile noma ubhasikidi wezinkampani.
Ukucabanga ngabo bobathathu ndawonye
Isikhundla esivikelekile kumuntu waseNingizimu Afrika okhathazekile ngerandi ukuthi angalokothi akhethe eyodwa yalezi futhi angakunaki okunye. Iwukubamba inhlanganisela ehambisana nephrofayili yobungozi oke wacabanga ngayo, kuneyodwa oyizuze njengefa ngokuzenzakalelayo. Imali yedola ithwala i-liquidity nokuzinza. I-Offshore equity ithwala ukukhula kwesikhathi eside ekuguquguqukeni abantu abaningi abangakuthola. I-Bitcoin iphethe imbuyiselo ephezulu kakhulu yomlando kanye nempahla ehlinzekwayo engaguquki, ngenani lemizwa ongakwazi ukuyibiza nguwe kuphela.
Indlela engenza ngayo inhlanganisela namaklayenti iwukufanisa impahla ngayinye nomsebenzi kunokuba nesimo sengqondo. Imali engase isetshenziswe phakathi neminyaka emithathu ayinalo ibhizinisi e-Bitcoin futhi mhlawumbe ayikho emasheya, ngakho-ke ihlala emalini eyidola lapho uthango lwerandi lusebenza khona ngaphandle kokudonsa phansi. Imali ebekelwe eceleni ishumi leminyaka ingaba nengozi eyengeziwe uma ishintshanisa ukukhula okwengeziwe, okuyikhaya lemvelo le-equity slice futhi, elilinganiselwe ngokucophelela, le-Bitcoin. I-Bitcoin ikakhulukazi iwumkhathizwe omude noma ayilutho, futhi ngisebenza ngombono omncane weminyaka emihlanu kuya kweyishumi ngerandi ngalinye layo. Iphutha engilibona kaningi akukona ukuba ne-Bitcoin encane kakhulu. Iphethe imali efanele kodwa ixhase ngemali okuvele ukuthi izodingeka ngonyaka ozayo, bese idayisela phansi ibize impahla ngenkinga.
Ngokwenza lokho kusho ukuqala kancane futhi uzinze kunokufinyelela inombolo. Iqoqo lanyanga zonke elisuka ku-R1,000 lakha isikhundla ngaphandle kokukuphoqa ukuba uchithe noma yini, ukuzibamba kuqala kuba nengqondo uma ukubamba kufaneleka ukuvikela, futhi ukuthenga kanye nje ngosayizi kufanela noma ubani ohambisa isamba semali. Isakhiwo sibalwa kancane ekuqaleni kunesiyalo sokubamba ebusika bokuqala osithola njengomnikazi kunokuba yisibukeli.
Umsebenzi wesikhungo wokulinganisa uwusizo kakhulu kunemibono eminingi, kuhlanganisa neyami. Ucwaningo lwezimpahla zedijithali ze-Fidelity luthole ukuthi ukungeza ngisho nesabelo esincane se-Bitcoin kwiphothifoliyo yakudala engu-60/40 kuthuthukisa ukubuya kwayo okulungiswe ubungozi, ngenzuzo ebukhali kakhulu efika phakathi kwesisindo esingu-1% no-3%, kuyilapho ukudonsa okubi kakhulu kwephothifoliyo kungazange kushukunyiswe. Ukuhlotshaniswa okuphansi nazo zonke ezinye izinto ezibanjiwe kanye nokulinganisa kabusha okuhlelekile kwaminyaka yonke kwenze umsebenzi wokuvimbela, kwadayisela owinile buthule ukuze aqondise futhi avune ukuntengantenga esikhundleni sokujeziswa yikho.
Ingakanani ngayinye iyisinqumo akukho sihloko esingakwenzela sona.
Okwenziwa yirekhodi kuwumthwalo wobufakazi. Iminyaka eminingi bekucatshangwa ukuthi ukuntengantenga kwe-Bitcoin kwakwenza kwaba nokuqagela kakhulu kwiphothifoliyo ebucayi, futhi ukwabiwa okunguziro akudingi ukuzivikela. Ezinombolweni zangempela, phakathi naso sonke isikhathi esiqhubekayo sokubamba, lokho kucatshangelwa manje yikhona okuthwele isisindo. Ukushiya i-Bitcoin ngokuphelele kuyisimo okufanele kuphikiswe ngaso, hhayi nje ukucatshangwa, kanye nesilondolozi esinenani lemali yebhentshi elivuzayo unyaka nonyaka ingxabano inzima ukuyinqoba kunanoma iyiphi enye indawo.
Imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
I-Bitcoin iqhathaniswa kanjani ne-offshore equity njengothango lwerandi?
Zombili zisebenza umsebenzi wothango lwerandi kodwa ngamaphrofayili ezingozi ezihlukene kakhulu. I-Offshore equity (S&P 500) ibuyele cishe ku-550 kuya ku-650% ngokwemibandela yamarandi ngonyaka wezi-2015 kuya kowezi-2025, nokuntengantenga okumaphakathi. I-Bitcoin ibuyise cishe i-60,000% ngesikhathi esifanayo, nokuguquguquka okuphakeme kakhulu kanye nokwehla okuningi okudlula ama-50%. I-Offshore equity iyindlela esungulwe kakhulu; I-Bitcoin isebenze kakhulu ngaphezu kwesilinganiso esikhulu ngaphezu kwanoma isiphi isikhathi seminyaka emihlanu noma eside kodwa idinga ukubekezelela okukhulu ukushintsha kwentengo. Kwabatshalizimali abaningi baseNingizimu Afrika, bobabili banendima emazingeni ahlukene ezabelo.
Ingabe ngidinga imvume ye-SARB ukuze ngithenge i-Bitcoin eNingizimu Afrika?
Cha. I-Bitcoin ethengwe ngerandi ngomhlinzeki waseNingizimu Afrika onelayisensi yendawo ayidingi imvume ye-SARB noma ukusetshenziswa kwesibonelelo sonyaka sokutshala izimali kwamanye amazwe. Ukuthenga kuthathwa njengomsebenzi wezezimali wasekhaya. I-FICA evamile kanye nezidingo zokulwa nokushushumbiswa kwemali ziyasebenza, futhi konke ukulahlwa kwe-Bitcoin kuhlala kuyimicimbi ekhokhiswa intela ngezinjongo ze-SARS. Ukuthengiselana kwe-Bitcoin okuwela umngcele, ukuyithumela phesheya kolwandle noma ukuyithola phesheya, kuthathwa njengemisebenzi yokugeleza kwemali futhi kuwela ngaphansi kwemithetho yokulawula ukushintshaniswa kwe-SARB.
Ingabe imali yedola iwuthango oluhle lwerandi kubantu baseNingizimu Afrika?
Imali yedola iyindlela elula futhi ewuketshezi kakhulu yokuvikela irandi. Njengoba irandi lehla, inani lerandi lempahla yedola lakho liyakhuphuka ngokulingana, ngaphandle kobungozi bokutshalwa kwezimali ngale kokunyakaza kwemali. Ibuyise cishe u-85 kuya ku-100% ngokwemibandela yamarandi ngo-2015 kuya ku-2025. Umkhawulo wukuthi akuyona impahla yokukhula futhi ilahlekelwa amandla okuthenga angempela lapho amanani ase-US ehluleka ukuhambisana nokwehla kwamandla emali. Ihambisana nemali edingekayo esikhathini esiseduze, hhayi ukukhula kwesikhathi eside.
Ngingakwazi ukubamba bobathathu ngesikhathi esisodwa?
Yebo, futhi kubatshalizimali abaningi baseNingizimu Afrika abanokonga okuphusile, inhlanganisela ifaneleka kakhulu kunokugxila kunoma iyiphi iheji eyodwa yerandi. Indlela evamile ukusebenzisa ukheshi wedola ukuze uthole imali edingekayo phakathi neminyaka emithathu, ukulingana kwamazwe aphesheya kwezilwandle njengemoto ewumnyombo wesikhathi eside, kanye ne-Bitcoin njengendawo encane kodwa enengqondo elingana nalokho ongakwazi ukukubamba uma udonsa kanzima ngaphandle kokudayisa. Bhukha ingcingo ukuxoxa ngengxube yakho.
Bala imiksi yakho, bese usayizi weBitcoin ngendlela enengqondo
I-SimplB isiza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuthi bathenge, bavikele futhi bahlele i-Bitcoin ngendlela ehambisanayo, njengoMmeleli Wezomthetho we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha ucingo lwe-rand hedge