Ingakanani I-Bitcoin Okufanele Ayibambe Ngempela Umtshali-zimali waseNingizimu Afrika? Uhlaka Lokukala Isikhundla Sakho
Inani elifanele le-Bitcoin akulona inani elenyusa ukubuyisela kwakho. Yinani ongalibuka liwa ngesigamu ngaphandle kokulithinta. Lowo mehluko uzwakala njengobuchwepheshe uze uhlale neklayenti e-George ekuqaleni kuka-2022, ugqolozele isikhundla esiphansi ngo-60%, unquma ngesikhathi sangempela ukuthi ingabe iminyaka eyishumi yokubekezela iyasinda kwikota eyodwa embi. Lolu uhlaka engilusebenzisa ngempela usayizi wendawo, olwakhelwe eduze kwenombolo ongayibamba kunenombolo ekhethwa isipredishithi.
Ukhiye wokuthatha
Qala ngokubekezelela i-Ukuguquguquka kwentengo, ungabuyiseli okulindelwe. Umkhawulo oyisibopho isabelo ongasibuka sehla ngo-50 kuya ku-60% ngaphandle kokusithengisa. Amamodeli ezikhungo ngokuvamile abhekisela ku-1 kuya ku-5%, kanti i-Fidelity ithola ukuthuthuka okubukhali kwezinzuzo ezilungiswe ubungozi njengoba iphothifoliyo isuka entweni engaba ngu-3%. Kubantu baseNingizimu Afrika, ukwehla kwerandi kungase kuthethelele ukulinganisa izinga eliphezulu ngezizathu ze-Uhlobo lwemali-hedge. Indawo ongayibamba ibala ngaphezu kwendawo oyivulayo.
Okulandelayo kuyindlela yokucabanga, hhayi izincomo zokuthenga noma yiliphi inani elithile. Izimo zakho ziyagoba impendulo, futhi akukho sihloko owazi umholo wakho, iphothifoliyo yakho ekhona noma isimo sakho sengqondo. Funda lokhu njengomumo wengxoxo enginayo namakhasimende, bese ube nenguqulo ethile nomuntu ongabona isithombe sakho esigcwele.
Qala ngokubekezelela i-Ukuguquguquka kwentengo, ungabuyiseli okulindelwe
Iningi lezinhlaka zokwabiwa ziqala ngembuyiselo elindelekile, futhi kuBitcoin yilapho ziphambuka khona ngokushesha. Ibanga lokubuya libanzi kakhulu ukuthi ungalihlela. I-Bitcoin ikhiqize kokubili imbuyiselo engcono kakhulu yeminyaka eminingi kanye nokudonsela phansi okunonya okukhulu kweminyaka eminingi kwanoma isiphi isigaba sempahla enkulu kule minyaka eyishumi efanayo, futhi noma ubani okutshela ngokuzethemba ukuthi uzokwenzani eminyakeni emihlanu ezayo uqagela ngejazi laselabhu. Idatha ye-Fidelity uqobo ibonisa ukuthi i-Bitcoin yayiyimpahla esebenza kakhulu eminyakeni eyishumi nanye yeminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu edlule, okuzwakala njengesizathu sokulayisha kuze kube yilapho ukhumbula iminyaka emine bekungenjalo, nokuthi leyo minyaka yayizizwa kanjani ukuphila.
Ngakho-ke phendula umbuzo wokuqala. Esikhundleni sokubuza ukuthi yini othemba ukuyenza, buza ukuthi yikuphi ukwehla ongakwazi ukuhlala ngaphandle kokuthi izandla zakho zinyakaze inkinobho yokuthengisa.
I-Bitcoin ibe nokudonswa phansi okuningana okudlule ku-50%, okunye kudlule u-70%, ngakunye kuze kube manje kulandelwe ukululama kokuphezulu okusha. Abatshalizimali abaphume phambili yibo abangenzanga lutho ngesikhathi sokuwa, okunzima kakhulu kunalokho okufundwa eshadini. Inombolo enquma ukuthi usayizi wakho uwusayizi lapho ukuwa okungu-60% kusakuvumela ukuthi ulale.
Faka inani lerandi kuyo, ngoba ukukhishwa akukaze kungenise muntu engozini. Ake sithi uphethe iphothifoliyo ka-R2 million futhi ukala u-10%. Lokho kungu-R200,000 ku-Bitcoin. Ukuwa okungamaphesenti angama-60, okuwuLwesibili okuvamile emlandweni weBitcoin esikhundleni senhlekelele, kukushiya ubheke ku-R80,000. Hlala naleso sikrini isikhashana ngaphambi kokuthi uphendule okuwukuphela kombuzo obalulekile. Ubungabamba, noma ubuzodayisa buthule phansi uzitshele ukuthi uyakhuzwa? Uma impendulo eqotho ithengiswa, isabelo sikhulu kakhulu, noma ngabe imodeli ithi kufanele ibe yini.
Usayizi esiswini sakho, hhayi isipredishithi sakho.
Lokho okukhombisa uhla lwesikhungo
Ababambiqhaza abakhulu abengeze i-Bitcoin esidlangalaleni ngokuvamile bafike phakathi kuka-1% no-10% wezimpahla ezifanele, futhi imininingwane engaphansi kwalolo bubanzi iwusizo kakhulu kunobubanzi ngokwalo. Ithimba lezimpahla zedijithali le-Fidelity liphethe iphothifoliyo yakudala engu-60/40 phakathi neminyaka eyishumi yomlando futhi lengeza i-Bitcoin ngezisindo ezihlukahlukene. Ukuthuthukiswa okuphawuleka kakhulu kwezinzuzo ezilungiswe ubungozi, ezikalwa ngezilinganiso ze-Sharpe ne-Sortino, zivele ekuhambeni phakathi kwe-1% ne-3%.
Ukutsheka okuncane kwenza umsebenzi omningi. Ukwengeza okwengeziwe kuqhubeke kuphakamisa imbuyiselo eluhlaza kodwa kuyeka ukuthuthukisa imbuyiselo ngeyunithi ngayinye yobungozi nganoma iyiphi indlela efana nenani elifanayo, okuyimpikiswano ethule yokuvinjelwa izinombolo zesihloko ezivame ukuyigqiba.
Ukuthola okudonswa phansi yikhona okumangazayo abantu. Ku-backtest eqala ekupheleni kuka-2015 kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2022, i-Fidelity yathatha iphothifoliyo yesikhungo eyisisekelo futhi yakhipha u-5% emalini yaba yi-Bitcoin. Ngaleso windi izinga lokukhula elihlanganisiwe lonyaka likhuphuke lisuka ku-6.26% laya ku-16.72% kanti ibhalansi yokugcina yaphuma ngama-88% ngaphezulu. Ukudonswa okuphezulu kwayo yonke iphothifoliyo kusuke ku-19% kuya ku-22% kuphela, naphezu kokuthi i-Bitcoin ngokwayo ihlushwa ukuphahlazeka okuningana okungu-40 kuya ku-70% phakathi kwaleso sikhathi esifanayo. Izinto ezimbili ezenze lokho: Ukuhlobana okuphansi kweBitcoin nayo yonke iphothifoliyo, kanye nesiyalo esisobala sokulinganisa kabusha kanye ngonyaka, okuthengisa buthule amandla nokugcina isisindo singabalekeli.
I-BlackRock yenze iphuzu elifanayo ukusuka kolunye uhlangothi, iphawula ukuthi ngisho nesikhundla esingu-1 kuya ku-2% singashintsha ngokubonakalayo ingozi yephothifoliyo futhi ibuyele ngenxa ye-Bitcoin's skewed, i-asymmetric payoff. Inhlolovo yakamuva ye-Nomura yezikhungo zaseJapane ithole ukuthi i-60% yalabo abahlela ukwengeza i-crypto bahlose ukubamba phakathi kuka-2 no-5%, cishe lapho abakwa-imali baseNtshonalanga sebezinze khona. Akukho kulokhu okuyimiyalelo. Ziyisithombe sendlela abatshalizimali abacophelelayo, abanezinsizakusebenza abawuphendule ngayo umbuzo ofanayo nowubuzayo, namaqoqo ezithombe aphansi kunalokho alindelwe abaningi abafikayo.
Kuyafaneleka ukwazi ukuthi isiphetho esinolaka sibukeka kanjani ukuze ukwazi ukumelana naso ngokwethembeka. I-Fidelity iqhube irekhodi langempela le-Bitcoin leminyaka eyishumi ngokusebenzisa i-Kelly Criterion, ifomula ebuza ukuthi ingakanani imali edingekayo ukubheja okuhle. Ezinambeni zomlando ezingahluziwe iveze isikhundla sika-65%, okungekho muntu ophile kahle ekhanda okufanele asisukumele. Iphakele ukuqagela phambili okulandelanayo esikhundleni salokho, imbuyiselo emaphakathi yonyaka engama-25% kanye nokwehla okungu-50%, futhi ihlala cishe ku-10%. Ukulungiselelwa okuhlukile kwesilinganiso esiphezulu se-Sharpe kubeka isisindo se-Bitcoin esifanelekile ku-9.4%, kungekho lutho kumabhondi. Angizifundanga lezo zibalo njengethagethi kodwa njengesilingi: izibalo zibekezelela i-Bitcoin eningi kakhulu kunesilinganiso somoya esingakwazi, yingakho nje isimo sengqondo, hhayi izibalo, sibeka umkhawulo wangempela. Ukuthi lokho kuhlala kanjani ngaphakathi kwephothifoliyo egcwele kungumbuzo engisebenza kuwo Indawo yeBitcoin kuphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene.
Isimo serandi laseNingizimu Afrika
Abatshalizimali baseNingizimu Afrika baphatha okuguquguqukayo amamodeli asogwini angalokothi abize ngawo. Yonke impahla elinganiselwa erandini onayo, ama-equity, amabhondi, ukheshi, indlu, iboniswa buthule kuslayidi sesakhiwo semali eside. Impahla egcina inani layo ngamadola isazokhuphuka ngokwemibandela yerandi, ngoba irandi lilokhu lintengantenga ngaphansi kwalo. I-Bitcoin inokunikezwa okugxilile emhlabeni jikelele kanye nezimpendulo ezinqumweni ezingenziwa ePitoli, ngakho iziphatha njenganoma iyiphi impahla yomhlaba wonke eqinile kanye nenzuzo ngokwemibandela yerandi njengoba uhlobo lwemali lunikeza isisekelo.
Lokho kushintsha uhlaka lwanoma ngubani okwesaba kwangempela okungekona ukuphahlazeka kweBitcoin kodwa impilo yonke yokuchayeka emalini eyodwa encane yemakethe esafufusa. Kulowo mtshali-zimali isabelo se-Bitcoin akuyona nje ukubheja ekubuyiseleni. Iwuthango lwemali, ehlezi ekhabetheni elifanayo nenani lasolwandle noma imali eyidola, futhi ingakalwa ngokunengqondo ekupheleni kwebanga lesikhungo ngenxa yaleso sizathu kuphela.
Ukuthi uzoyinika isisindo esingakanani kuncike ekufundeni kwakho ukuthi irandi liya kuphi eminyakeni engamashumi amabili nokuthi impilo yakho yonke isivele isobala kangakanani kulo. Ngiqhathanise imizila emithathu ngapha nangapha I-Bitcoin iqhathaniswa ne-offshore equity iqhathaniswa ne-USD cash, futhi isiphetho esiqotho sasiwukuthi abantu abaningi bafuna enye yazo kunokufuna eyodwa.
Indawo ongayibamba idlula indawo oyivulayo
Iphutha elibiza kakhulu engilibonayo ukuthi angikaze ngithole usayizi wokuvula ngokungalungile kancane. Idayiselwa endaweni engase iphole uma ishiywe yodwa. Ngakho-ke usayizi olungile yinoma yini ongayithwala iminyaka emithathu kuya kwemihlanu noma ngaphezulu ngaphandle kokuphoqwa ukuba wenze okuthile, kungaba ngebhalansi yakho yasebhange noma ngemizwa yakho siqu, okusho ukuthi usayizi wesimo esibi kunesodwa sencwajana. Cabanga ukuthi iwe kanzima futhi uhlale phansi unyaka noma emibili, bese ubuza ukuthi isikhundla sakho ngaleso sikhathi sisashiya isikhwama sakho sezimo eziphuthumayo sinjalo kanye nokulala kwakho kungaphazamiseki. Uma kwenzeka, inombolo ilungile. Uma ukuyithwebula kukwenza uphaphatheke, yinqume ngaphambi kokuthi uyithenge, hhayi ngemva kokuwa.
Lapha ngincika I-The Strategic Reserve, incwadi engiyibhale ngokubamba i-Bitcoin njengempahla yesikhathi eside kunokuhweba. Ukuqagela kukalwa ngamashadi amanani, gcina isu ngamashumi eminyaka. Laba bobabili bafuna osayizi abahlukene bezikhundla, ngoba umhwebi angakwazi ukusula umnikazi wokulondoloza azama ukukugwema.
Ukwakha indawo kancane kancane kuyasiza kuzo zombili izibalo. Ukuthenga njalo ngenani elingaguquki lerandi isilinganiso sokungena kwakho kunoma iyiphi intengo futhi kususe ubuhlungu bokuphelelwa yisikhathi etafuleni ngokuphelele, yingakho ngihlela amaklayenti amaningi eqoqweni eliqhubekayo lanyanga zonke lisuka ku-R1,000 ngenyanga kunesigaxa esisodwa sokwethuka. Iphinde ivumele usayizi ukuthi ukhule njengoba ukujwayela kwakho impahla kukhula, ngakho ukuqiniseka kwakho nokuchayeka kwakho kukhuphuke ndawonye esikhundleni sokuthi ukuchayeka kwakho kugijime ngaphambi kokuqonda kwakho. Lapho isamba singenakugwenywa, ukusabalalisa imali ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kwenza umsebenzi ofanayo. Ngibeke inqubo ephelele yesikhundla sokuqala ku u-R100,000 wakho wokuqala ku-Bitcoin, kanye nezinsimbi ezijulile zokuthi isikhundla sihamba kanjani ngokumelene nephothifoliyo esele ukubala okuthembekile kwengozi yephothifoliyo ye-Bitcoin.
Isakhiwo kanye nokugcinwa kuyingxenye yosayizi
Usayizi awukho wodwa. Uma ukubanjwa kwe-Bitcoin sekuyingxenye ebalulekile yomcebo wakho, izinto ezintathu ebezingabalulekile ku-R20,000 zibalulekile. Igama lempahla, elomuntu siqu, lenkampani noma i-trust, liqala ukushayela intela yakho, ifa lakho nokuthi izinhlamvu zemali zidlulela kanjani esizukulwaneni esilandelayo, futhi ukulungisa lokho kamuva kubiza kakhulu kunokunquma kusenesikhathi. Ukuthola isakhiwo ngaphambi kokuba kwakhiwe isikhundla kushibhile. Ukuhlela kabusha ukubanjwa okuthokozelwayo kuwumcimbi wentela ozifaka kuwo wena.
Isilinganiso sokugcina sihamba ngendlela efanayo. Isikhundla esincane ekushintshanisweni sinengozi ongase uyibekezelele ngezinkulungwane ezimbalwa zamarandi futhi awusoze wakwamukela ngamakhulu ambalwa ezinkulungwane. Ngiyisa amakhasimende ekuzigcineni okuqondisiwe ukusuka cishe ku-R10,000 futhi ngiwabhekise eVault ukuze uthole izinto ezinkulu, lapho kungekho khiye owodwa ongahambisa izinhlamvu zemali zodwa futhi ukulawula kuhlala kuwe. Izikhundla ezinkulu kakhulu noma eziphuma kanye zingadlula phezu kwekhawunta kunoma imuphi usayizi.
Umbuzo wesayizi kanye nombuzo wokuthi-uyibamba kanjani kuwumbuzo owodwa ogqoke izigqoko ezimbili. Ukuphendula omunye ngaphandle komunye yindlela abantu abagcina benempahla ebucayi kanye nohlelo oluntekenteke. Imindeni eqhuba lokhu ngesilinganiso kufanele ifunde Ukulinganisa kweBitcoin kwehhovisi lomndeni laseNingizimu Afrika, lapho umqondo ofanayo uhlangabezana nokubusa kwezizukulwane eziningi.
Nquma usayizi ongakwazi ukuwubamba, bese usonga isakhiwo esifanele kanye nokugcinwa kuso ngaphambi kokuba kukhule amazinyo. Bhuka ingxoxo yokulinganisa ye-Bitcoin futhi ngizosebenzisa izinombolo zakho zangempela, hhayi uhla olujwayelekile olubolekwe ebhalansi yomunye umuntu.
Imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Imaphi amaphesenti ephothifoliyo yami okufanele ngiwabele i-Bitcoin eNingizimu Afrika?
Ayikho impendulo eyodwa efanele. Amamodeli ezikhungo ngokuvamile abhekisela ekwabiweni kuka-1 kuya ku-5%, futhi ucwaningo lwe-Fidelity luthole ukuthuthuka okubukhali kwezinzuzo ezilungiswe ubungozi njengoba iphothifoliyo isuka ezeni iye cishe ku-3%. Kubatshalizimali baseNingizimu Afrika abakhathazekile ngokuwohloka kwerandi, ukukala izinga eliphezulu kungase kuthethelelwe ngenxa yezizathu zokuthi kungani imali ishintshashintsha. Ukuhlolwa kwangempela akulona iphesenti noma kunjalo: sebenzisa ukwehla okungu-60% esabelweni sakho esihleliwe futhi ubuze ngokwethembeka ukuthi usazobamba yini. Uma impendulo ithengiswa, inkulu kakhulu.
Kungcono ukutshala isamba noma uthenge kancane kancane?
Kubantu abaningi, ukuthenga kancane kancane ngokuthenga njalo ngamarandi angashintshi kuthembeke kakhulu kunesamba sesamba esisodwa. Ukuntengantenga kweBitcoin kusho ukungena kwesamba sesamba ngesikhathi esineshwa kungadala isiqalo esibuhlungu esiholela ekuthengisweni kusenesikhathi. Ukuthenga okuvamile kuphakathi kwenani lakho lokungena futhi kususe ingcindezi yokubeka isikhathi etafuleni. Lapho isamba esikhulu singenakugwenywa, ukusabalalisa imali ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kwenza umsebenzi ofanayo.
Ukwehla kwerandi kulithinta kanjani icala lokubamba i-Bitcoin?
Irandi lehle kakhulu uma liqhathaniswa nedola kule minyaka engamashumi amabili edlule. I-Bitcoin inenani lomhlaba wonke ngokwemibandela yedola kanye nezimpendulo ezinqumweni ezingathathwanga ePitoli, ngakho-ke umuntu waseNingizimu Afrika oyibambayo uyazuza ekwehleni kwerandi ngendlela efanayo nomuntu ophethe izabelo zasolwandle noma ukheshi wamadola. Uma irandi lishibilika, inani lerandi lentengo liyakhuphuka ngisho noma intengo yedola ingakasuki, yingakho i-hedge case ingathethelela ukukala umkhawulo ophezulu wobubanzi.
Ngikungakanani usayizi okufanele ngiqale ukucabanga ngokubamba isakhiwo kanye nokugcinwa?
Igama lomuntu liyisiqalo esisebenzayo futhi lilungele izikhundla ezincane. Uma ukubamba sekuba isabelo esinengqondo senani lakho, intela, ifa kanye nemiphumela yokulandelana kwesakhiwo, igama lomuntu, inkampani noma i-trust, kufanelekile ukubukezwa nochwepheshe, ngoba ukukulungisa ngemva kokukhula kwesikhundla kuwumcimbi wentela obizayo. Ukugcinwa kwezingane kukala ngendlela efanayo: usayizi obungawushiya uma ushintshana ngezinkulungwane ezimbalwa zamarandi ufanelwe ukugcinwa okuzinikele kumakhulu ambalwa ezinkulungwane. Ukunquma kokubili kusenesikhathi kubiza kakhulu kunokunquma sekwephuzile.
Thola inombolo ongayibamba.
I-SimplB isiza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuthi bathenge, bavikele futhi bahlele i-Bitcoin ngendlela ehambisanayo, njengoMmeleli Wezomthetho we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha ikholi yokulinganisa ye-Bitcoin