Kutheni abatyali-mali bengayihloniphi iGolide kunye neeMpahla?
Kuninzi lwembali erekhodiweyo igolide yayiyeyona asethi yonke enye into eyayilinganiswa ngayo. Kubomi obunye bokusebenza yaba yinto ecingelwayo kwiipotfoliyo zobungcali. Izizathu zithetha ngakumbi malunga nendlela ishishini leengcebiso lifumana ngayo imali yalo kuneempawu zegolide. Bakwachaza into eninzi malunga nendlela i-Bitcoin ephathwa ngayo namhlanje.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Igolide ayizange ibekwe ecaleni ngenxa yokuba iimpawu zayo zemali ziye zasilela. Ayihlawuli sivuno kwaye ayifumani ntlawulo yomcebisi, nto leyo enike ishishini elakhelwe phezu kwesivuno kunye nemirhumo isizathu esincinci sokuyinyusa nabani na. Xa nalo laphulukana nomsebenzi walo ongokwasemthethweni ngoAgasti 1971, yayeka kwaphela ukuthetha. I-Bitcoin ngoku izoba inkcaso efanayo kwisakhelo esifanayo ngelixa igcina ukunqongophala kwegolide kwaye ilungisa ugcino lwayo kunye neengxaki zokudluliselwa.
Ukuthabatheka kwesivuno okubeke ecaleni igolide
Ulawulo lwepotfoliyo yanamhlanje lukhule malunga nemodeli ethotyiweyo yokuhamba kwemali. Iprojekthi yengeniso ye-asethi yexesha elizayo, isaphulelo siyibuyisele namhlanje kwaye inani eliphumayo lixabiso. Izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo zivelisa umvuzo. Iibhondi zihlawula iikhuphoni. Ipropati iqokelela irenti.
Igolide ayivelisi nto. Ihlala kwigumbi elingaphantsi elinqongopheleyo, eyona nto iphambili.
Imodeli ayinayo iseli yaloo nto.
Ngoko isizukulwana sabahlalutyi sajamelana nokhetho olunzima. I-asethi ebibambe amandla okuthenga iminyaka engamawaka amathathu ayihambelani ne-spreadsheet, nto leyo ethetha ukuba i-spreadsheet asiphelelanga okanye i-asethi ayibalulekanga. Uninzi lweshishini likhethe impendulo egcina ispredishithi.
Iimveliso zifumene unyango olufanayo. Umbona, iplatinam kunye nedizili zihambisa uqoqosho lokwenyani kwaye amaxabiso azo aphethe ulwazi lokwenyani. Kodwa ukuvezwa kwempahla yorhwebo akuhlawuli ngeniso kwaye kwenza kube nzima ukunika ingxelo, ngoko ke iye yakhuliswa ngaphandle kweepotfoliyo zemodeli kulungiselelwa ii-asethi eziziphatha ngcono.
Iingcali zezoqoqosho kudala zinegama lezinto ezingenakubonwa yi-spreadsheet. UCarl Menger, ebhala ngemvelaphi yemali ngo-1892, wachaza indlela imali efanelekileyo ethwala ngayo ixabiso elingaphezulu nangaphezulu kokusetyenziswa kwayo okanye ixabiso lokusetyenziswa. Elo xabiso elongezelelweyo yintlawulo yemali kwaye iprimiyamu yeyona ngongoma. Imodeli ethotyiweyo yokuhamba kwemali ixabisa yonke into malunga ne-asethi ngaphandle kwesizathu sokuba abantu babambe imali.
Yintoni eyatshintsha ngokwenene ngo-1971
Kwade kwangoAgasti 1971 igolide yayinomsebenzi osesikweni. I-Bretton Woods ibethelele ezona zimali ziphambili kwidola yaseMelika kwaye idola yayinokuhlawuleka ngegolide nge-35 yeedola enye, ngoko ke irandi nganye ejikelezayo yema kumgama osisigxina, ukuba awuthanga ngqo, ukusuka kwintsimbi kwivault. Emva koko uNixon wavala ifestile yegolide kwidilesi kamabonakude ebusuku ngeCawe eyabonisa kwangaphambili isiqendu seBonanza. Ukusukela ngaloo ngokuhlwa iibhanki ezingoovimba zinokuyandisa imali ngaphandle kokubhekisa kuyo nantoni na ebonakalayo. Amaziko alawula inkqubo entsha yamaphepha ayefuna ibali kubaxumi bawo kwaye ibali lazibhala ngokwalo: ixesha lemali yegolide laliphelile kwaye ikamva leleequity neebhondi. Yayilibali elilungele ngokumangalisayo abantu abathengisa izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kunye neebhondi.
Ibali lanamathela.
Intsimbi ayizange ibambisane nayo. Kwisithuba seminyaka elithoba yokuvalwa kwefestile, igolide yayibaleke ukusuka kwi-35 yeedola ukuya ngaphezulu kwe-800 yeedola i-ounce. Abantu ababhengeze ukuba ixesha layo lemali liphelile bayibukele isenza intshukumo izihlandlo ezingamashumi amabini ngokuchasene nemali abayilawulayo.
Into eyalandela ukususwa kweankile yayingekokuzinza. Phakathi kwe-1975 kunye ne-2007 ihlabathi lirekhode i-201 yeengxaki zemali ezihlukeneyo, ezingcono kunesihlanu ngonyaka, ngokophando oluvela kwi-Federal Reserve Bank yaseSan Francisco. Abemi boMzantsi Afrika abazange bafunde ngabo basezincwadini zokufunda. Irandi yayixabisa i-$1.40 xa yayiziswa ngo-1961. Amashumi eminyaka ukususela oko i-ankile yaphuma yasinika ukuma kwetyala lika-1985, isilayidi eside se-nineties, i-R14 ukuya kwidola ngo-2019 ibe yi-R18.70 ngo-2024. Hayek yabona ukumila kwayo kwangoko. Ngo-1984 wayexelela abaphulaphuli ukuba ihlabathi alisokuze liphinde libe nemali entle de isuswe kurhulumente. Ayinakuthathwa ngobundlobongela, utshilo. Bekuya kufuneka ifike ngendlela yobuqhophololo, ejikelezayo ukuze urhulumente angayeki. Kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini anesihlanu kamva umdwelisi wenkqubo ongaziwa wagrumba ibhloko yokuqala yeBitcoin waza wagximfiza isihloko sephephandaba malunga nokukhutshwa kwebheyile kuyo, emalunga nobuqhetseba kunye nokujikeleza njengoko imbali yemali ifumana.
Ilizwe elomba igolide yehlabathi
Akukho mfundi unesikhumba esithe chatha kweli bali ukodlula umntu waseMzantsi Afrika. Ngowe-1970 imigodi yethu yavelisa ngaphezu nje kweetoni ezili-1 000 zegolide, malunga nesibini kwisithathu sayo yonke into eyakhutshwa emhlabeni ngaloo nyaka. I-Krugerrand, eyasungulwa ngo-1967, yavelisa ingqekembe ye-bullion yangoku kwaye kwincopho yayo ibambe malunga ne-90% yemarike yehlabathi yeengqekembe zegolide. IGoli likhona ngenxa yentsimbi. Ngokunjalo neJohannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), echithe inkulungwane yayo yokuqala njengomatshini wokuxhasa ngemali ishafti. I-China igqithise kuphela uMzantsi Afrika njengowona mvelisi mkhulu ngo-2007, yaphela iminyaka engaphezu kwekhulu kwindawo yokuqala.
Namhlanje imveliso imalunga neshumi lencopho.
Umbuso usahleli phezu kwentsimbi nangona. Ukusukela ngo-Okthobha ka-2025 i-Reserve Bank ibambe malunga ne-R281 yeebhiliyoni zegolide, malunga nesiqingatha sesihlanu se-balance sheet yayo, ibanjwe njengomgcini kuba igolide yekarhulumente ngokusemthethweni. Kwaye iingxelo zelizwe zithwala uvumo oluzolileyo malunga nerandi. I-GFECRA, iakhawunti erekhoda iinzuzo zohlaziyo kwigolide yelizwe kunye noovimba bamazwe angaphandle, ibimi kuthafa lweebhiliyoni ezingama-R28 ngo-2003. Ngo-2024 iye yanda yadlula i-R500 yeebhiliyoni kwaye uNondyebo wenze amalungiselelo okutsalela i-R150 yeebhiliyoni zayo ukuxhasa uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali. Eso siqingatha setriliyoni yeerandi asizange sifumaneke ngokurhweba ngobuchule. Yindlela amashumi amabini eminyaka yokuhla kwerandi ejongeka ngayo xa ifika kuxwebhu lwemali karhulumente.
Kukho umbhalo osemazantsi wexesha lezohlwayo ekufuneka ugcinwe. IWashington yakuvala ukungeniswa kweKrugerrand ngo-1985 njengoko uxinzelelo kucalucalulo luqinisiwe, isikhumbuzo sokuba i-asethi ye-asethi iphathwa kuphela njengoko ipolitiki ivumela. Eso sifundo sinempendulo efana neBitcoin.
Nasekuwohlokeni kwemisebenzi yakudala ye-reflex: intsalela yegolide ethunyelwa ngaphandle ixhume i-29.5% kwikota yesine ka-2025 kumaxabiso aphezulu kunye nemfuno yokhuseleko. Igolide yakhiwe kweli lizwe kwaye intsimbi igcine amanqaku erandi ukusukela ngoko. Kufanelekile ukukhumbula xa umntu ekuxelela ukuba ii-asethi ezinqabileyo ezingenamveliso azinamsebenzi.
Kutheni abacebisi bengaze beze negolide
Kukho isizathu sokwakheka kwegolide ukuba yalahleka kwiingcebiso eziqhelekileyo kwaye ayiloyelenqe. Ifumana umcebisi phantse akukho nto. Izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kunye nomvuzo osisigxina zinokusongwa ngokweengqimba emva kwemveliso, nganye ivelise ingeniso kumntu othile. Igolide ihleli nje.
Iipotfoliyo zemodeli ziqokelelwa kwiibhloko zokwakha iqonga elinokuthi ligcinwe, linike ingxelo kunye ne-bill ngokuchasene. Iyunithi trust iyalingana. Inqaku elicwangcisiweyo liyalingana. Ibha yegolide kwindawo ekhuselekileyo yekhaya ayingeni ndawo kuloo mfumba, ngoko ke incoko ayiqali kwaye ukhetho aluze lufike kwiscreen phambi komcebisi. Umcebisi akaxoki kuwe. Imenu yenze ubuxoki phambi kokuba kubekho umntu othethayo.
ULyn Alden uyibhale phantsi le pateni kunye naye nabani na. Ii-asethi eziyimali ezinqongopheleyo zitsala inkunzi ngaphandle kokuhlawula isivuno, ukuba imarike iyayiqaphela ipremiyamu yemali. Uninzi lophando lwamaziko alufikeleli kulo mbuzo. Isakhelo sahluza i-asethi kuqala.
Ngaba igolide iselutyalo-mali olulungileyo? Ukufunda ngokunyanisekileyo
Ukunika uzuko apho ifanelekile, igolide iye yaba yimali efileyo mva nje. Uphando lwe-asethi yedijithali ye-Fidelity luphawula ukuba imbuyekezo yegolide kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo yayinamandla ngokwaneleyo kangangokuba imilinganiselo yayo ehlengahlengisiweyo yomngcipheko ibetha izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo. Iibhanki eziphambili, emva kwesizukulwana sokuphatha isinyithi njengeqhekeza lemyuziyam, ziye zathenga ngokuthe ngcembe. Abanye baye badlulela phambili kwaye babuyisela imivalo esuka eLondon naseNew York ukuya kwiivaults zamakhaya, apho isinyithi siguquka ngokukhawuleza. Xa abantu abaqhuba le nkqubo beqalisa ukukhupha igolide yabo kuyo, olo luhlobo lwayo lomqondiso. Xa kwaqhambuka imfazwe kuMbindi Mpuma ngoFebruwari ka-2026 yaza irandi yathengiswa ngayo yonke enye imali yemarike esakhulayo, igolide yenza le ikwenzileyo kuzo zonke iingxaki ukususela phambi kwamaRoma.
Ke ingxabano apha asikokuba igolide ayiphumelelanga. Ingxoxo yeyokuba amaziko awayichithayo iminyaka engamashumi amahlanu ayengalunganga malunga ne-asethi kwaye anyanisekile kuphela malunga nenkuthazo yawo. Oko kuya kukwenza ube nomdla wokwazi malunga nokuba lolwakhiwo lwenkuthazo luhluza ntoni ngoku.
Umsebenzi ofanayo weFidelity wenza inqaku elizolileyo endilifumana liluncedo ngakumbi ekusebenzeni. I-Bitcoin kunye negolide zibonisa ulungelelwaniso oluphantsi kwii-horizons ezinde kwaye zidla ngokutshintshana ngokusebenza ngaphezulu kweentsuku ezingama-90. Abangabo abakhuphisi kwipotfoliyo kakhulu njengezixhobo ezahlukeneyo. Ndayicacisa indlela amaqhekeza adibana ngayo Indawo yeBitcoin kwipotifoliyo eyohlukeneyo.
Izichaso ezifanayo, ngoku ezijoliswe kwiBitcoin
I-Bitcoin ijongene nephepha lentlawulo elifanayo. Akukho sivuno, akukho kuhamba kwemali, akukho nto inokwenziwa.
Yonke into ekuyo iyinyani kwaye yonke into ichaza imida yemodeli kunokufaneleka kwe-asethi, kanye njengoko yenzayo kwigolide iminyaka engamashumi amahlanu. Ukusebenzisa inkcaso efanayo kuguqulelo olunamandla lwe-asethi kukuxelela ukuba inkcaso ayizange ibe malunga ne-asethi.
Cinga ukuba yintoni ngokwenene i-Bitcoin ilungisayo. Igolide ebonakalayo idinga iivaults kunye nabavavanyi kunye neelori ezixhobileyo. Ukuhamba kwindawo enzima ukuwela umda kuthatha iiveki. I-Bitcoin ihlala naphi na emhlabeni phantsi kweyure kwaye yahlulahlulwe kwiindawo ezisibhozo. Ungaluqinisekisa olwakho ulawulo ngaphandle kwemvume yakhe nabani na. Kwiziko umsantsa uyabonakala. Ukubamba igolide kuthetha ukubathemba abagcini, iingxelo ze-inventri kunye neenkqubo zokuhanjiswa, umaleko phezu komgangatho wezithembiso zeqabane. Ukubamba kweBitcoin kunokuphicothwa kwikhonkco ngexesha lokwenyani kwaye kugcinwe ngaphakathi endlwini kunye ne-hardware kunye ne-multi-signature setups, akukho qela libonakalayo. Ndigubungele icala lemali kulo mzekelo Bitcoin njengemali evakalayo.
Ukunqongophala kulapho ukuthelekisa kuyeka ukuba kufutshane. Unikezelo lwegolide olungaphezulu komhlaba lukhula malunga ne-1.7% ngonyaka kwaye loo mgangatho uyanwebeka, kuba xa ixabiso liqhuba abasebenzi basezimayini bemba nzulu kwaye baphinde bavule i-marginal shafts. Amaxabiso aphezulu abiza ubonelelo olutsha. Nabani na okhe wayibukela iWest Rand kwimarike yenkunzi uyayazi ipateni. Iimpendulo zeBitcoin zokubonelela akukho mntu. Kuya kuhlala kuphela i-21 yezigidi zemali kunye nesiqingatha sokukhutshwa rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine kwishedyuli enyanzeliswa yikhowudi. Kumlinganiselo we-stock-to-flow umlinganiselo osetyenziswa ngabahlalutyi ukunqongophala kwemali, isiqingatha sityhala i-Bitcoin idlule igolide ukuba ibe yeyona asethi yemali inqabileyo esele ilinganisiwe. Iprimiyamu kaMenger ekugqibeleni inesitya esinokuthi i-drill bit ingakwazi ukuyihlambulula.
Abemi boMzantsi Afrika baziva bechaphazeleka ngakumbi kunabaninzi. Irandi ilahlekelwe malunga ne-70% xa ithelekiswa nedola kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini, ukuvuza okucothayo endikubeke ngokufanelekileyo buthetha ntoni ubuthathaka berandi kwiBitcoin. Impendulo katatomkhulu wakho yaba nguKrugerrands kwisilingi. Ithuku lalivakala kwaye isixhobo siye saphucuka.
Abantu abasondeleyo kwintsimbi baye baqaphela. Ngo-2024 ndahlala phantsi nomthengisi wegolide nedayimani eKapa owayethengisa ishishini lakhe ngaphambi kokuba athathe umhlala-phantsi. Ebuzwa ngeBitcoin, akazange andinike impendulo ethandabuzayo endiyilindeleyo. Abathengi bakhe begolide bachithe iminyaka emithathu okanye emine edlulileyo bethengisa iingqekembe kunye nemivalo ukuze bathenge iBitcoin. Wayebukele ukuhamba ixesha elide ngokwaneleyo ukuba ayilandele ngokwakhe kwaye wayethatha umhlala-phantsi kwilali yakhe yobuntwana e-Italiyane indoda ecebileyo. Wayengenzi ingcamango engokwembono. Ebefunda ulandelelwano lwakhe.
Umbono wam ukwirekhodi. Inxalenye ethile yobutyebi ingaphandle kwenkqubo yemali yangaphakathi, kwi-asethi enqabileyo ungazibamba kwaye uhambe ngaphandle kwemvume. Igolide yenze loo msebenzi kwizizukulwana ezidlulileyo kwaye isafanelana nabantu abafuna umngcipheko weteknoloji yero; Nditsho xa ingena. Kuwo wonke umntu urhwebo luqhubekile. Ibanjiwe ukuzigcina ngokufanelekileyo, I-Bitcoin yithuku elidala kwisixhobo esakhiwe kule nkulungwane, ngaphandle kokusasazeka komthengisi okanye ibhokisi yediphozithi ekhuselekileyo.
Kwaye ukuba ithuku lesinyithi lisebenza kwintsapho yakho, gcina iingqekembe. Cacisa nje ngomsebenzi abasanokuwenza kunye nomsebenzi abangakwaziyo ukuwenza. Ngomsebenzi wesibini, izixhobo zitshintshile.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Kutheni abacebisi abaninzi bezezimali bengacebisi ngegolide?
Kuba ayibahlawuli nto. Ubulungisa obulawulwayo kunye neemveliso zengeniso ezisisigxina zenza ingeniso eqhubekayo kumcebisi, ngelixa igolide kwindawo yokugcina ayenzi lutho. Iimodeli zeengcebiso zicebisa into ebagcinayo, ngoko ke igolide ayifane yenze uluhlu.
Kwenzeka ntoni kwindima yegolide yemali emva ko-1971?
Ulawulo lukaNixon lwavala ifestile yegolide ngo-Agasti 1971, luphelisa ilungiselelo leBretton Woods. Idola yaseMelika yayeka ukuguqulelwa kwigolide ngexabiso elimiselweyo kwaye igolide yaba yinto eqhelekileyo emehlweni enkqubo yezemali, eyathi yatshintsha indlela amaziko awahlula ngayo kwaye ayixabisile.
Ingaba igolide iselutyalo-mali olulungileyo eMzantsi Afrika?
Igolide iligcinile ixabiso layo kwaye isasabela kwiingxaki, njengoko iminyaka yakutshanje iqhubeka ibonakalisa. Iingxaki ezisebenzayo kukugcinwa, umthengisi usasazeka kunye nenyaniso yokuba isinyithi ayikwazi ukuhamba xa uyifuna. Ndiphatha igolide njengempendulo ehloniphekileyo kumbuzo ochanekileyo kunye neBitcoin njengesixhobo esingcono somsebenzi ofanayo.
Ngaba i-Bitcoin igolide yedijithali nje?
Igcina into eyenza igolide ibe yimali, unikezelo oluzinzileyo akukho rhulumente unokufunxa, ngelixa usongeza ukuba yintoni igolide isweleyo: ugqithiso olukhawulezileyo kunye nokuqinisekiswa ongakwenza ngokwakho. Ekusebenzeni igcwalisa indima yepotfoliyo efanayo kwaye isombulule iingxaki zokugcina eziza nentsimbi.
Yintoni i-stock-to-flow kwaye kutheni ibalulekile?
I-stock-to-flow ithelekisa i-asethi ekhoyo ekhoyo kunye nobonelelo olutsha oluveliswa ngonyaka ngamnye. Umlinganiselo ophezulu uthetha ukunqongophala. Igolide ibala kakuhle kodwa unikezelo lwayo lunwebeka kuba imigodi iphendula kwixabiso. Ukukhutshwa kweBitcoin kuyancipha rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine ngekhowudi, ngoko ke umlinganiselo wayo uqhubeka unyuka udlula igolide, eyona iprofayile yokunqongophala eyomeleleyo okwangoku ilinganisiwe.
Yintoni intlawulo yemali abhala ngayo uLyn Alden?
Ixabiso elongezelelweyo i-asethi enqabileyo iyalela kuba abantu bayibambe njengevenkile yexabiso elingaphaya kwayo nayiphi na into yokusetyenziswa kwimizi-mveliso. Igolide irhweba ngaphezulu kwemfuneko yobucwebe kunye ne-electronics enokuthetheleleka. U-Alden uyaxoxa ukuba iprimiyamu yemali yeBitcoin isafunyanwa njengoko uninzi lwentengiso luqaphela iipropathi zayo.
Yiba ngumnini we-asethi, tsiba ilori enezixhobo
I-SimplB inceda abantu baseMzantsi Afrika bathenge, bakhusele kwaye bamise i-Bitcoin ngokuthobelayo, njengoMmeli woBugqwetha we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha umnxeba wokufunyanwa