Indawo yeBitcoin kwiPotfoliyo eDiversified
Ingxabano enamandla kakhulu yokuba neBitcoin ayinanto yakwenza nokuqikelela ixabiso layo. Kukuba isiqwenga sayo esincinci, sihleli ngokuzolileyo ecaleni kwezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kunye neebhondi, ngokwembali yenze ukuba ipotifoliyo iziphathe ngcono. Akunjalo ngenxa yokuba i-Bitcoin izolile. Kusisichasi sokuzola. Ngenxa yokuba ihambisa igubu elahlukileyo kunayo yonke enye into onayo, kwaye iphothifoliyo eyakhiwe kwizinto eziwa ngeentsuku ezahlukeneyo ipotifoliyo eyomeleleyo kuneyo eyakhiwe kwizinto eziwa kunye.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
I-1% ukuya kwi-5% ye-Bitcoin sleeve iye yaphucula imbuyekezo ehlengahlengisiweyo yomngcipheko wesitokhwe semveli kunye nepotifoliyo yebhondi, ngaphandle kokuguquguquka kwayo kodwa ngenxa yokunxibelelana kwayo okuphantsi kuyo yonke enye into. Kwipotfoliyo ye-R1 yesigidi i-2% isikhundla sithetha ukuba i-50% ye-Bitcoin crash ikubiza i-R10,000, i-1% yokubola iyonke, ngelixa i-upside ihlala i-asymmetric. Kummi waseMzantsi Afrika, kwaloo mkhono mnye uphinda-phindwe kabini njengokuba sesichengeni sangaphandle konxweme esibanjwe ngokuthe ngqo, ngaphandle kwenkqubo yebhanki.
Eyona nto iboniswa luphando
Qala ngenani elothusayo abantu. Xa i-Fidelity -edijithali Assets imodeli yongeza i-Bitcoin kwisitokhwe samashumi amathandathu eepesenti kunye neepesenti ezingamashumi amane zeebhondi kwipotfoliyo kwiminyaka elishumi, ukubuyisela umngcipheko, ukulinganisa i-Sharpe kunye ne-Sortino, kuphuculwe. Olona xhumano lukhulu luvela ekuhambeni phakathi kwepesenti enye nesithathu kwisabelo seepesenti. Ukuguquguquka kwenyuka. Imbuyekezo eyongezelelweyo ingaphezu kwentlawulo yayo.
Inxalenye ebamba abanikezeli bezabelo bengalindelanga yinto eyenzekayo kwicala elisezantsi. I-Bitcoin ihlupheke ngeendlela ezininzi zokutsalwa kweepesenti ezingamashumi amane ukuya kwamashumi asixhenxe ngelo xesha, uhlobo lokuwa olwenza iintloko. Ungalindela ukuba ipotfoliyo iyibambe ithathe ukubetha okunzulu kakhulu. Ayizange ibe njalo. Olona luhlu luphezulu aluzange lushukume, ngenxa yokuba indawo encinci kwi-asethi enganxulumananga ayitsaleli phantsi yonke inqanawa xa ikhubeka, kwaye uhlengahlengiso oluqeqeshekileyo lonyaka lugcina ubunzima bayo bungarhubuluzi ngaphaya koko bekujoliswe kuko.
I-Fidelity iqhube ixesha elide lokubuyela umva kwiziko, kwipotfoliyo esasazwe kwizabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo, iibhondi, izindlu nomhlaba, imveliso kunye nemali. Phakathi kokuphela kuka-2015 kunye no-2022 emva kwexesha isiseko, ngaphandle kweBitcoin, yajika ishumi lamawaka eedola ukuya malunga neshumi elinesihlanu lamawaka, izinga lokukhula kwekhompawundi malunga neepesenti ezintandathu ngonyaka, kunye nokutsalwa okubi kakhulu kufutshane neepesenti ezilishumi elinesithoba. Shift isihlanu ekhulwini kwizabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo ukuya kwiBitcoin kwaye ibhalansi yesiphelo iphantse yaphinda kabini, izinga lokukhula liye latsibela phakathi kwiminyaka yeshumi elivisayo, kwaye eyona nto imbi kakhulu yehle yaya kutsho malunga namashumi amabini anesibini ekhulwini. Umngxuma obanzi weepesenti ezintathu kutshintshiselwano malunga nemali ephindwe kabini. Olo rhwebo yingxabano yonke kumgca omnye.
Akukho nanye kwezi luphando olungelulo. IBlackRock, eqhuba iitriliyoni kwaye ayileqeki ifashoni, ngoku ibhala ukuba ulwabiwo lwepesenti enye ukuya kweyesibini inokutshintsha ngokubonakalayo umngcipheko wepotfoliyo kunye nokubuyisela amandla. Xa umphathi we-asethi omkhulu emhlabeni eqala ukuthetha ngaloo migaqo, umbuzo uyayeka ukuba ingaba i-Bitcoin iyinxalenye yengxoxo kwaye iba yimalini, kwaye ivela phi imali.
Kutheni unxulumano oluphantsi lusenza umsebenzi onzima
Unxulumano yinjini ezolileyo phantsi kwayo yonke le nto, ngoko kufanelekile ukuba ichaneke. Ii-asethi ezimbini ziyanxulunyaniswa xa zithanda ukuphakama kunye nokuwa kunye. Ipotfoliyo yee-asethi ezinxulunyaniswe kakhulu iziva yantlukwano de ibe yimini yonke into yehla ngaxeshanye, ngelo xesha ufumanisa ukuba unobhejo olunye unxibe izinto ezininzi zokuzifihla.
Amanani eBitcoin apha awaqhelekanga. Ngaphezulu kwexesha elide elilinganiswe ukusuka ngo-2012 ukuya ku-2020 ukudityaniswa kwayo kunye ne-S&P 500 yahlala malunga ne-0.15, kunye neebhondi zase-US ngokusebenzayo ziro, kunye negolide engalunganga. Oko kukufutshane negrail engcwele yolwakhiwo lwepotfoliyo: i-asethi enembuyekezo eyomeleleyo yexesha elide engayihoyiyo into eyenziwa zezinye izabelo zakho. Ababeki-zabelo bachitha amakhondo omsebenzi bezingela kanye loo ndibaniselwano kwaye abafane bayifumane. Nantsi ihleli emehlweni.
Kukho i-caveat ethembekileyo, kwaye ndiyibeka kuye wonke umxhasi. Kwimeko yokwenyani yokungabikho kwemali, uhlobo lweveki apho abatyali-mali bathengisa nantoni na abanako kunokuba bayifunayo, iBitcoin ithengisa ngayo yonke enye into. Yehla ngesiqingatha ngoMatshi ka-2020 ecaleni kwesitokhwe kunye negolide. Ke ulungelelwaniso olusezantsi luphawu lwesakhiwo esinexesha elide, hayi isithembiso malunga naluphi na iiveki ezimbini. Ndamisela apho la mgca uhleli khona, nalapho uqhawuka khona, ungene yintoni ingxabano ye-Bitcoin hedge ngokwenene. Kwi-horizon ebaluleke kakhulu ekulondolozeni, nangona kunjalo, i-Bitcoin iphendule ekudalweni kwemali kunye nokwamkelwa okungaphezulu kakhulu kwi-Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), kwaye ukuzimela koko kwenza ukuba umkhono omncinci ufumane ukugcinwa kwawo.
Ingxoxo yepotfoliyo kwiirandi ezilula
Thatha eyenyani. Umnini weshishini laseGeorge endithethe naye kulo nyaka uphelileyo utyale imali emalunga nesigidi esi-R1, amashumi amathandathu eepesenti kumdibaniso wezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo yasekhaya neyangaphandle, amashumi amane eepesenti kwiibhondi kunye neengxowa-mali zengeniso. Wayefuna ukuvezwa kweBitcoin kwaye wayesoyika ukuba iya kuvuthela isikhundla sakhe esilumkileyo.
Hamba i-arithmetic kunye naye. Isabelo seepesenti ezimbini ngama-R20,000 kwiBitcoin xa kuthelekiswa nama-R980,000 kuyo yonke enye into. Masithi i-Bitcoin yenza into eyenziwa yi-Bitcoin kwaye iwela ngeepesenti ezingamashumi amahlanu kwindawo embi. Ulahlekelwe yi-R10,000. Ipotfoliyo yakho yezigidi zeerandi ngoku ixabisa i-R990,000, ipesenti enye yehla obuya kusokola ukuyiva. Ukuguquguquka kwakho kukonke akuzange kuguquke. Into onayo ngoku, exhaswa ngemali ilahleko yayo ingayi kutshintsha ubomi bakho, sisikhundla esinembali yokuphindaphinda ngaphezulu kwamaxesha okubambisa iminyaka emininzi.
Yityhale iye kwisihlanu ekhulwini kwaye imilo ibambe. Ngama-R50,000 e-Bitcoin. Kwalaa mashumi mahlanu epesenti yokutshayisa ixabisa i-R25,000 kwaye itsala iphothifoliyo yonke ihle ngeepesenti ezimbini ezinesiqingatha. Ukungakhululeki kwiscreen, ukusinda ebomini. Ngembuyekezo ubambe isibonda esinentsingiselo kwicala leasymmetric yokubheja.
Loo asymmetry yeyona nto abantu abayiphosayo xa belungisa ukuguquguquka. Icala lakho elisezantsi kumkhono ligqunywe kwinto oyifaka kuyo. Ungaphulukana ne-R20,000. Awunakuphulukana nemali engaphezu kwama-R20,000. I-upside ayithwali isilingi enjalo. Kungenxa yoko le nto isikhundla siziphatha, kulwimi olusetyenziswa ngabanikezeli bolwimi, njengokubheja kweshishini kunokuba i-flip yemali: imali encinci ngaphakathi, imali enokuthi ibe nkulu, ubungakanani obungalunganga bukubiza impazamo yokujikeleza kwaye ulungile utshintsha i-arithmetic ye-akhawunti yonke.
Umkhono kufuneka ube mkhulu kangakanani?
Ipesenti enye ukuya kweyesihlanu luhlobo lomsebenzi wembali oqhubeka ufika kulo, kwaye kubantu abaninzi abaqalayo bendiya kuhlala kwisiqingatha esisezantsi sayo. Kodwa kuyafaneleka ukwazi ukuba kutheni isilingi ingekho phantsi.
I-Fidelity yaqhubela phambili i-optimization ejonge phambili isebenzisa uqikelelo olulumkileyo ngabom, inika iBitcoin kuphela ipesenti ezingamashumi amabini anesihlanu elindelekileyo imbuyekezo ngokuchasene neshumi elinesine elinesiqingatha sepesenti ye-equities, kunye nokohlwaya amashumi amahlanu eepesenti ukuguquguquka. Nditsho ne-hobbled ngolo hlobo, ipotfoliyo enowona mlinganiselo uphakamileyo weSharpe ubambe malunga neepesenti ezilithoba zeBitcoin kwaye, ngokuxelayo, iibhondi zero ekhulwini. Indlela eyahlukileyo kusetyenziswa ikhrayitheriya ye-Kelly, ifomula yokubheja ngokubheja okuncomekayo, yalatha malunga neshumi leepesenti kumagalelo afanayo olondolozo. Iindlela ezimbini ezahlukeneyo, ezifika kufuphi nendawo enye, zombini zingasentla apho abantu abasandul’ ukufika ngokwethuku bemvelo bafuna ukuhlala khona.
Anditsho ukuba ubambe ishumi ekhulwini. Ndiyanixelela ukuba imathematika ayilohlwayi ulwabiwo oluncinci ngendlela intuition esitsho ngayo, nto leyo ethetha ukuba umngcipheko wokwenene kuninzi lwabemi boMzantsi Afrika ubambe kancinci kakhulu. Apho uhlala khona kuxhomekeke kumbono wakho, imithambo-luvo yakho kunye nendlela obakhelwe ngayo bonke ubutyebi bakho. Yincoko yobuqu. Isakhelo sam sokulinganisa indawo yeBitcoin uhamba ngesona sigqibo. Ubalo lomngcipheko wepotfoliyo ibandakanya izibalo ezisezantsi ezinyanisekileyo.
Ukuhlengahlengisa kulapho kuhlala khona uqeqesho
Umkhono ongawuchukumisiyo awulawulwa ngokwenene. Iyakhukuliseka nje.
Eyona nto icace gca kuFidelity kwi-mechanics yayiphantse yakruqula ngendlela eyayilula ngayo. Eyona nto yayibalulekile yayingengomthombo wenkxaso-mali kwaye ingeyiyo eyona shedyuli yokulinganisa ngokutsha. Eyona nto yayibalulekile yayikukuba uphinde ulungelelane konke konke. Ngenxa yokuba i-Bitcoin ngokwembali ivelise iintshukumo ezibukhali ngakumbi kunaphantsi, indawo eshiywe yodwa iya kudlula ibhaluni yobunzima ekujoliswe kuyo ngokubaleka kakuhle kwaye ngokuzolileyo ujike umkhono wakho weepesenti ezimbini ube yipesenti ezilishumi enye ongazange uyikhethe. Ukulungelelanisa kwakhona kunyanzelisa uqeqesho olungathandekiyo lokucheba emva kokunyuka kunye nokunyuka emva kokuwa, yindlela ovuna ngayo ukuguquguquka endaweni yokuba uvunwe yiyo.
I-counterweight yinyani kwaye ndiyithetha ngokucacileyo. Ukulinganisa kwakhona ngokungqongqo kubeka i-Bitcoin kwi-leash emfutshane kwaye ikliphu i-asymmetric upside eyayisisizathu sokuba ngumnikazi wayo. Yiyeke iqhube kancinci kwaye ubambe ngakumbi ukudibanisa. Kukho isigwebo kuloo fowuni, kwaye yenye yezinto endizenzela abathengi kunokuba ndibanike i-spreadsheet kwaye ndibanqwenelele ithamsanqa.
Umbimbi waseMzantsi Afrika akukho mntu wumbi unawo
Yonke into engasentla iyinyani kumtyali-mali waseNew York. Yongeza irandi ngoku.
Ipotfoliyo yakho ifakwe kwimali ephulukene nexabiso layo elininzi xa ithelekiswa nedola kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini, kwaye umkhombandlela omude wesakhiwo awutshintshanga nokuba ujongeka njani na unyaka omnye. Impendulo yencwadi kukwahluka kwi-offshore, kwiidola kunye nezabelo zamazwe angaphandle. Ingcebiso echanekileyo, kwaye emva koko udibana nedesika yolawulo lotshintshiselwano. Isibonelelo esisodwa sokuzikhethela sigqityiwe. Awungekhe uvele uhambise isihlanu sepotfoliyo yakho kubuncwane base-US ngokukhawuleza, kwaye amaphepha okuhambisa ubungakanani bokwenyani likhondo labo elincinci.
I-Bitcoin ihleli kwi-engile engaqhelekanga kuyo yonke loo nto. Ukubanjelwe elugcinweni ayilobango kwibhanki yelinye ilizwe elinokuthi liyikhenkce kwaye ayisosixhobo esihleli ngaphakathi kwinkqubo yokucoca yomnye umntu. Yi-asethi oyibambe ngqo, ixabiso layo lihlala ngaphandle kwerandi ngokupheleleyo. Isibini ukuya kwisihlanu ekhulwini lomkhono we-Bitcoin kwipotfoliyo yerandi, ngokwenyani, yiyantlukwano ekude nonxweme oyenze ngokwakho. I-Bitcoin iluncedo kakhulu xa iindlela zesiqhelo zaselwandle zithintelekile, nto leyo kummi waseMzantsi Afrika ixesha elininzi. Ukuba ungahambisa irandi kwiibhondi zedola ngokukhululekileyo nangexabiso eliphantsi, imeko iya kuba buthathaka. Awukwazi, ngoko akunjalo.
Kwaloo nkululeko inye yiyo loo nto ndihlala nditsalela abatyali-mali ukuba babuyisele ukuba yeyantoni na i-asethi. Igolide iyatshangatshangiswa njengendawo yokugcina engadityaniswanga yexabiso, kwaye inendawo yayo, kodwa ndiyacacisa kutheni abatyali-mali bayeka ukuhlonipha igolide kunye neemveliso kutheni unikezelo-olusisigxina, oluqinisekisiweyo, i-asethi ephathekayo ngokukhawuleza yenza umsebenzi ofanayo kunye nezizathu ezimbalwa. Kwipotfoliyo, iBitcoin ayikhuphisani nezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo. Yenza umsebenzi ongenakukwazi ukwenza ezinye izinto zakho.
Ukuguquguquka wonke umntu ufumana umva
Inkcaso ihlala ifana. I-Bitcoin iguquguquka kakhulu kwipotfoliyo enzulu.
Isiqingatha sasekunene. Iyaguquguquka. Impazamo kukucinga ukuba ukuguquguquka kwi-asethi engahambelaniyo kufana nokuguquguquka kwinto enxibeleleneyo. Ukuba i-Bitcoin ihambe i-lockstep kunye ne-JSE, ukuguquka kwayo kuya kwandisa umngcipheko okhoyo kwaye umgxeki uya kuchaneka. Kodwa ayihambi kwi-lockstep, kunye nokuguquguquka kwinto ejikelezayo xa ipotifoliyo yakho ingenasiphene ukuba inyamezele. Yimathiriyeli ekrwada eyenziwe ngayo iyantlukwano. I-asethi engazange ihambe ayinakuze ihambe ngokuzimeleyo, kwaye ukuzimela sisizathu esipheleleyo sokuphucula ipotfoliyo. Umntu obukele i-Bitcoin ubeka iipesenti ezilishumi ngelixa izabelo zabo ziphawula ezimbini zibona ingozi. Umabi ofunda ulungelelwaniso ubona injini enikezela ngembuyekezo xa i-core holds itsala nzima. I-asethi efanayo, isiphelo esichaseneyo, kwaye inye kuphela kubo ejonga ipotifoliyo yonke kunomgca omnye kuyo.
Ke umbuzo wolwabiwo awuzange ube nokuba iBitcoin iyaguquguquka. Ngokucacileyo kunjalo. Umbuzo ngowokuba ingaba umkhono omncinci, olungelelanisiweyo, ongahambelaniyo uphucula imbuyekezo ehlengahlengisiweyo yomngcipheko wayo yonke. Ingxelo yembali, ukusuka kwiFidelity ukuya kwiBlackRock, ihlala iphendula ewe. Ayikabikho imvumelwano yentengiso. Iya isanda imvumelwano yeziko, ethanda ukufika kuqala.
Olwam uqheliselo lwakhiwe ukwenza ukuba umkhono ukruquke kumnikazi. Abathengi baqala isicwangciso sokugcina imali ukusuka kwi-R1,000 ngenyanga kunye ne-avareji yeendleko zeerandi, nto leyo ethintela umdlalo ongenakwenzeka wokubeka ixesha lokungena. Ukusuka kwi-R10,000 ndibahambisa kwi-guided Ukuzigcinela, kuba i-asethi ephethwe ngomnye umntu iphosa isiqingatha sayo. Izikhundla ezinkulu zingena kwiVault, i-multisig emibini kwezintathu apho kungekho sitshixo esinye esinokuhambisa iimali zodwa. Ukuba ungathanda ukuthetha apho umkhono weBitcoin uhambelana kunye noko sele ungowakho, bhukisha ifowuni yesakhiwo sepotfoliyo kwaye siya kuyenza ubukhulu kwindawo yakho yokwenyani, hayi itemplate.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Ingakanani iBitcoin ekufuneka ndiyibambe kwipotfoliyo yam?
Umsebenzi wembali ovela kwi-Fidelity uqhubeka ufika kwi-1% ukuya kwi-5% yoluhlu njenge-sleeve ephucula imbuyekezo ehlengahlengisiweyo ngaphandle kokuphazamisa ipotifoliyo eyohlukeneyo. Ukujongelwa phambili okujonge phambili kwiingqikelelo zolondolozo kukhomba ngaphezulu, kufutshane ne-9% ukuya kwi-10%. Kubantu abaninzi abaqalayo bendiya kuhlala kwisiqingatha esisezantsi soluhlu, emva koko ndiyeke i-horizon kunye ne-nerve igqibe ngokuseleyo. Sisigqibo somntu ngamnye, hayi inani elimiselweyo.
Kutheni i-Bitcoin iphucula i-portfolio ye-Sharpe ratio nangona iguquguqukayo?
Ngenxa yokuba iintshukumo zamaxabiso ngokwembali ziye zaba nonxulumano oluphantsi kakhulu kunye nezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo kunye neebhondi. Ukongeza i-asethi engahambelaniyo kunokunyusa imbuyekezo ehlengahlengisiweyo kwipotfoliyo yonke naxa loo asethi ngokwayo iguquguquka, kuba iijingi zayo azimi phezu komngcipheko okhoyo. Kwisabelo esincinci, inzuzo yokwahluka kodlula ukuguquguquka okuthe kratya okunikelwa ngumkhono.
Ngaba iBitcoin ibala ngokuchasene nesibonelelo sam solawulo lotshintshiselwano lwaseMzantsi Afrika?
I-Bitcoin ithathwa njenge-asethi yangaphandle ngeenjongo zolawulo lotshintshiselwano, ngoko ke isibonelelo esisodwa esinokuvela kunye nesibonelelo sotyalo-mali lwangaphandle siyasebenza ngokobuchwepheshe, kwaye iinkcukacha ezisebenzayo zisacaciswa yi-SARB kunye ne-SARS. Ngokwenyani, umkhono weBitcoin ogcinwe uzigcinele wona unika utyhileko elunxwemeni ngokuthe ngqo, ngaphandle kwebhanki yangaphandle okanye inkqubo yokucoca. Umboneleli onelayisensi uyakunceda ukuba uyigcine icocekile.
Yeyiphi eyona ndlela ingcono yokwakha ulwabiwo lweBitcoin ngokuthe ngcembe?
I-avareji yexabiso leRandi, ukuthenga isixa esimiselweyo ngamaxesha aqhelekileyo, yindlela endiyimisela kubathengi abaninzi. Isusa uxinzelelo lwexesha lemarike kwaye isasaze ukungena kwakho kumanqaku amaninzi exabiso. Yidibanise nomgaqo wokulinganisa kwakhona ukuze umkhono ungakhukuliseki kude kubunzima obujoliswe kuko. Book a call ukulungisa isicwangciso.
Ulungele ukufumana indawo yakho yeBitcoin ngokufanelekileyo?
I-SimplB inceda abatyali-zimali baseMzantsi Afrika bathenge kwaye babambe i-Bitcoin ngokufanelekileyo, njengoMmeli osemthethweni we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha umnxeba wokufunyanwa