Yimalini yeBitcoin ekufanele ukuba uMtyali-mali waseMzantsi Afrika ayibambe? Isakhelo sokuLungisa iNdawo yakho
Isixa esifanelekileyo seBitcoin ayisiyiyo imali eyandisa imbuyekezo yakho. Yimali onokuthi uyibukele iwe ngesiqingatha ngaphandle kokuyichukumisa. Lo mahluko uvakala njengobuchwephesha de ube uhleli nomxhasi eGeorge ekuqaleni kuka-2022, ujonge kwindawo esezantsi ngama-60%, uthatha isigqibo ngexesha lokwenyani ukuba iminyaka elishumi yomonde iyasinda kwikota enye embi. Esi sisikhokelo endisisebenzisela ubungakanani bendawo, eyakhelwe malunga nenani onokuthi ulibambe kunenani elikhethwa sispredishithi.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Qala ngokunyamezela ukuguquguquka, ungabuyiseli okulindelweyo. Isinyanzelo esibophelelayo sisabelo onokuthi usibukele sihla nge-50 ukuya kwi-60% ngaphandle kokuthengisa. Iimodeli zamaziko zihlala zibhekisa kwi-1 ukuya kwi-5%, kunye ne-Fidelity ifumana ukuphucuka okubukhali kwimbuyekezo ehlengahlengisiweyo yomngcipheko njengoko ipotfoliyo isuka kwinto engekhoyo ukuya kwi-3%. Kubemi boMzantsi Afrika, ukuhla kwerandi kungathethelela umlinganiselo wesiphelo esiphakamileyo kwi-Uhlobo lwemali-hedge grounds. Indawo onokuthi uyibambe ibala ngaphezu kwendawo oyivulayo.
Oku kulandelayo yindlela yokucinga, kungekhona isincomo sokuthenga nayiphi na imali ethile. Iimeko zakho zigoba impendulo, kwaye akukho nqaku liwaziyo umvuzo wakho, ipotfoliyo yakho ekhoyo okanye umoya wakho. Funda oku njengemilo yencoko endinayo kunye nabathengi, emva koko ube noguqulelo oluthile nomntu onokubona umfanekiso wakho opheleleyo.
Qala ngokunyamezela ukuguquguquka, ungabuyiseli okulindelweyo
Uninzi lwezikhokelo zolwabiwo luqala ngembuyekezo elindelekileyo, kwaye kwiBitcoin kulapho ziphambuka khona kwangoko. Uluhlu lwembuyekezo lubanzi kakhulu ukuba ungacwangcisa ngeenxa zonke. I-Bitcoin ivelise imbuyekezo engcono kakhulu yeminyaka emininzi kunye neyona ndlela ikhohlakeleyo yokutsalwa kwayo nayiphi na iklasi ye-asethi enkulu kwishumi leminyaka enye, kwaye nabani na okuxelela ngokuzithemba ukuba uya kwenza ntoni kule minyaka mihlanu izayo uqikelela kwidyasi yelebhu. Idata Fidelity ngokwayo ibonisa Bitcoin yayiyeyona asethi ephezulu kwishumi elinanye kule minyaka ilishumi elinesihlanu idlulileyo, nto leyo evakala ngathi sisizathu sokulayisha ude ukhumbule iminyaka emine yayingeyiyo, kunye nendlela loo minyaka waziva ngayo.
Ngoko phendula umbuzo wokuqala. Endaweni yokubuza ukuba unethemba lokwenza ntoni, buza ukuba yeyiphi na eyehla onokuthi uhlale kuyo ngaphandle kokuba izandla zakho zihambe ziye kwiqhosha lokuthengisa.
I-Bitcoin iye yaba ne-drawdowns emininzi edlulileyo i-50%, enye idlulileyo i-70%, nganye kuzo ngoku ilandelwa kukubuyisela kwiindawo eziphezulu ezintsha. Abatyalo-mali abaphume phambili ngabo abangenzanga nto ngexesha lezo ziwa, ezinzima kakhulu kunokuba zifunde kwitshathi. Inani elithatha isigqibo sobungakanani bakho bubungakanani apho ukuwa kwe-60% kukuvumela ukuba ulale.
Beka umzobo werandi kuyo, kuba izinto ezithathwayo azizange zifumane mntu ngengozi. Masithi uphethe ipotifoliyo yezigidi ezi-R2 kwaye ulinganisa i-10% yesabelo. Yi-R200,000 leyo kwi-Bitcoin. Ukuwa ngama-60%, nguLwesibini oqhelekileyo kwimbali yeBitcoin endaweni yentlekele, kukushiya ujonge kwi-R80,000. Hlala neso sikrini okomzuzwana phambi kokuba uphendule ekuphela kombuzo obalulekileyo. Ngaba ubuya kubamba, okanye uthengise ngokuzolileyo ezantsi uze uzixelele ukuba uyaqeqeshwa? Ukuba impendulo enyanisekileyo ithengiswa, ulwabiwo lukhulu kakhulu, nokuba yintoni na imodeli ithi kufuneka ibe.
Ubungakanani esiswini sakho, hayi ispredishithi sakho.
Eyona nto iboniswa luluhlu lweziko
Ababeki-zabelo abakhulu abongeze esidlangalaleni i-Bitcoin baye bahlala phakathi kwe-1% kunye ne-10% yee-asethi ezifanelekileyo, kwaye iinkcukacha ezingaphantsi koluhlu ziluncedo ngakumbi kunoluhlu ngokwalo. Iqela le-asethi zedijithali likaFidelity liqhube ipotifoliyo yakudala ye-60/40 kwiminyaka elishumi yembali kwaye yongeza i-Bitcoin kubunzima obahlukeneyo. Olona phuculo lubalulekileyo kwimbuyekezo elungelelanisiweyo yomngcipheko, elinganiswe ngomlinganiselo weSharpe kunye ne-Sortino, ivela ekuhambeni phakathi kwe-1% kunye ne-3%.
Ukuthambeka okuncinci kwenza umsebenzi omninzi. Ukongeza ngaphezulu kuye kwaphakamisa imbuyekezo ekrwada kodwa kuyeka ukuphucula imbuyekezo ngeyunithi nganye yomngcipheko nangantoni na efana nomlinganiselo ofanayo, eyona ngxoxo ithuleyo yokuthintela ukuba amanani entloko athanda ukuyingcwaba.
Ukufunyaniswa kwe-drawdown yeyona nto imangalisa abantu. Kwi-backtest ehamba ukusuka ekupheleni kwe-2015 ukuya ekupheleni kwe-2022, i-Fidelity yathatha isiseko sepotfoliyo yeziko kwaye yatshintsha i-5% ngaphandle kwe-equity kwi-Bitcoin. Ngaphezulu kwelo festile iqondo lokukhula elihlanganisiweyo lonyaka linyuke ukusuka kwi-6.26% ukuya kwi-16.72% kwaye ibhalansi ephela yaphuma ngama-88% ngaphezulu. Olona luhlu luphezulu lwepotfoliyo lusuka kwi-19% ukuya kwi-22% kuphela, nangona i-Bitcoin ngokwayo ibandezeleka kaninzi kwi-40 ukuya kwi-70% yeengozi ngaphakathi kwelo xesha linye. Izinto ezimbini zenze oko: Ukulungelelaniswa okuphantsi kweBitcoin kunye nayo yonke ipotifoliyo, kunye noqeqesho olucacileyo lokuphinda ulungelelanise kanye ngonyaka, othengisa ngokuzolileyo amandla kwaye ugcine ubunzima ukubaleka.
BlackRock wenze ingongoma efanayo ukusuka kwelinye icala, ephawula ukuba nkqu 1 ukuba 2% isikhundla unako ngokwezinto eziphathekayo umngcipheko ipotifoliyo kunye nembuyekezo ngenxa Bitcoin ejijekileyo, intlawulo asymmetric. Uphando lwakutsha nje lweNomura lwamaziko aseJapan lufumene ukuba i-60% yalabo baceba ukongeza i-crypto inenjongo yokubamba phakathi kwe-2 kunye ne-5%, eyona ndawo apho abanikezeli baseNtshona baye bahlala khona. Akukho nanye kwezi eyimigqaliselo. Bangumfanekiso wendlela abatyali-mali abalumkileyo, abanezibonelelo ezifanelekileyo baphendule ngayo umbuzo ofanayo owubuzayo, kunye neqela lemifanekiso esezantsi kunokuba uninzi lwabantu abatsha balindele.
Kuyafaneleka ukwazi ukuba isiphelo esinobundlobongela sijongeka njani ukuze ukwazi ukuzibeka ngokuchasene naso ngokunyanisekileyo. Ukunyaniseka kuqhube irekhodi le-Bitcoin leminyaka elishumi nge-Kelly Criterion, ifomula ebuza ukuba ingakanani inkunzi efunekayo yokubheja. Kumanani embali ekrwada iye yachaza isithuba esingama-65%, ekungekho mntu ubhadlileyo makathathe amanyathelo kuso. Yondle ngeengqikelelo eziya phambili ezilondolozayo endaweni yoko, imbuyekezo yonyaka eyi-25% kunye ne-50% yokutsalwa phantsi, kwaye ihlala malunga ne-10%. Ukulungiswa okwahlukileyo kumlinganiselo ophezulu weSharpe ubeka ubunzima beBitcoin obufanelekileyo kwi-9.4%, kungekho nto kwiibhondi. Ndiwafundile loo manani kungekhona njengento ekujoliswe kuyo kodwa njengesilingi: izibalo zinyamezela kakhulu i-Bitcoin kune-avareji ye- temperament, yiyo loo nto kanye i- temperament, hayi izibalo, ibeka umda wokwenyani. Indlela ehlala ngayo ngaphakathi kwipotfoliyo epheleleyo ngumbuzo endisebenza kuwo Indawo yeBitcoin kwipotifoliyo eyohlukeneyo.
Imeko yerandi yaseMzantsi Afrika
Abatyali-zimali baseMzantsi Afrika banezinto eziguquguqukayo kwiimodeli zangaphandle engaselunxwemeni. Yonke i-asethi enerandi onayo, ii-equities, iibhondi, imali, indlu, iboniswa ngokuzolileyo kwisilayidi solwakhiwo olude lwemali. I-asethi egcina ixabiso layo kwiidola isazakunyuka ngokwerandi, kuba iranti ihleli iphelelwa ngamandla ngaphantsi kwayo. I-Bitcoin inonikezelo lwehlabathi oluzinzileyo kunye neempendulo akukho sigqibo senziweyo ePitoli, ngoko ke iziphatha njengayo nayiphi na iasethi enzima yehlabathi kunye neenzuzo ngokwerandi njengoko imali inika isiseko.
Oko kutshintsha ukuqulunqwa kwakhe nabani na oloyiko lokwenyani ingeyiyo i-Bitcoin crash kodwa ubomi bonke bokuvezwa kwimali encinci yentengiso esakhulayo. Kuloo mtyali-mali ulwabiwo lweBitcoin alukho nje ukubheja kwimbuyekezo. Luthango lwemali, ehleli kwidrowa enye kunye ne-offshore equity okanye imali yedola, kwaye inokulinganiselwa ngokufanelekileyo ukuya kwinqanaba eliphezulu loluhlu lweziko ngeso sizathu kuphela.
Ubungakanani bobunzima obunokubunika buxhomekeke ekufundeni kwakho ukuba irandi iya phi kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini kunye nokuba sele ityhileke kangakanani na ubomi bakho kuyo. Ndathelekisa iindlela ezintathu ngapha nangapha I-Bitcoin ithelekiswa ne-offshore equity xa ithelekiswa nemali ye-USD, yaye isigqibo esinyanisekileyo yayikukuba abantu abaninzi bafuna enye yazo kunokuba ibe nye.
Indawo onokuthi uyibambe ibetha indawo oyivulayo
Eyona mpazamo ndiyibonayo kukuba andisoze ndifumane ubukhulu bokuvula bungalunganga. Ithengiswa kwi-drawdown ebiya kuphila ukuba ishiywe yodwa. Ubungakanani obuchanekileyo buyinto yonke onokuthi uyiphathe iminyaka emithathu ukuya kwemihlanu okanye ngaphezulu ngaphandle kokunyanzelwa ukuba wenze okuthile, nokuba yibhalansi yakho yebhanki okanye ngemithambo-luvo yakho, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ubungakanani bemeko embi kuneyona ncwadana. Cinga ukuba iyawa nzima kwaye ihlale phantsi unyaka okanye emibini, emva koko ubuze ukuba isikhundla ngelo xesha sisashiya ingxowa-mali yakho kaxakeka kwaye ukulala kwakho kungaphazanyiswa. Ukuba kunjalo, inani lilungile. Ukuba ukufanekisa kukwenza utyhafe, lungisa ngaphambi kokuba uthenge, hayi emva kokuwa.
Apha ndoyama The Strategic Reserve, Incwadi endiyibhalileyo ekubambeni i-Bitcoin njenge-asethi yexesha elide kunorhwebo. Ukuqikelelwa kulinganiswa kwiitshathi zexabiso, isicwangciso sokugcina kumashumi eminyaka. Ezi zimbini zifuna ubungakanani bezikhundla ezahlukeneyo, kuba umrhwebi angasusa isisu somgcini wogcino azama ukuphepha.
Ukwakha indawo ngokuthe ngcembe kunceda kumacala omabini. Ukuthenga rhoqo ngexabiso lerandi elimiselweyo lokungena kwakho kulo naliphi na ixabiso lenzayo kwaye kususe intlungu yokuchitha ixesha etafileni ngokupheleleyo, yiyo loo nto ndihlela uninzi lwabathengi kwimbuyekezo yenyanga esuka kwi-R1,000 ngenyanga endaweni yeqhuma elinye. Ikwavumela ubungakanani bukhule njengoko ukuqhelana kwakho ne-asethi kukhula, ke ukuqiniseka kwakho kunye nokuvezwa kwakho kunyuke kunye endaweni yokuvezwa kwakho phambi kokuqonda kwakho. Apho isixa-mali singenakuthintelwa, ukusasaza ukungena kwiinyanga ezininzi kwenza umsebenzi ofanayo. Ndibeke inkqubo epheleleyo kwindawo yokuqala I-R100,000 yakho yokuqala kwiBitcoin, kunye nobunzulu obuchwephesha bendlela isikhundla esihamba ngayo ngokuchasene nayo yonke ipotifoliyo ngaphakathi ukubalwa okunyanisekileyo komngcipheko wepotfoliyo yeBitcoin.
Isakhiwo kunye nokugcinwa yinxalenye yobukhulu
Ubungakanani abukho ngokwabo. Nje ukuba i-Bitcoin ibambe ibe sisabelo esinentsingiselo kubutyebi bakho, izinto ezintathu ebezingenamsebenzi kwi-R20,000 ngequbuliso zibalulekile. Igama elikwi-asethi, lobuqu, kwinkampani okanye kwi-trust, liqala ukuqhuba irhafu yakho, ilifa lakho kunye nendlela iingqekembe zemali ezidlula ngayo kwisizukulwana esilandelayo, kwaye ukulungisa oko mva kubiza kakhulu kunokuthatha isigqibo kwangoko. Ukufumana ulwakhiwo oluchanekileyo phambi kokuba indawo yakhiwe kuyabiza. Ukuhlengahlengisa ukubanjwa okuxatyisiweyo sisiganeko serhafu ozifaka kuwe.
Isikali sokugcinwa kokugcinwa ngendlela efanayo. Isikhundla esincinci kutshintshiselwano sithwele umngcipheko onokuthi unyamezele ngamawaka ambalwa eerandi kwaye awusoze wamkele kumakhulu ambalwa amawaka. Ndiyisa abathengi kwindlela yokuzigcina ekhokelwayo ukusuka malunga ne-R10,000 ukuya kwiVault ukuze ufumane izinto ezinkulu, apho kungekho sitshixo esinye sinokuhambisa iimali zodwa kwaye ulawulo luhlala kuwe. Izikhundla ezinkulu kakhulu okanye ezi-off-off zingahamba phezu kwe-counter nakweyiphi na isayizi.
Umbuzo wesayizi kunye nombuzo wokuba-uyibamba njani ngumbuzo omnye onxibe iminqwazi emibini. Ukuphendula enye ngaphandle komnye yindlela abantu abaphela ngayo bene-asethi enzulu kunye nesicwangciso esincinci. Iintsapho eziqhuba oku ngokwesikali kufuneka zifunde Ubungakanani bendawo yeBitcoin kwiofisi yosapho yaseMzantsi Afrika, apho ingqiqo efanayo idibana nolawulo lwezizwe ngezizwe.
Gqiba ngobungakanani onokuthi ubambe, emva koko usonge isakhiwo esifanelekileyo kunye nokugcinwa macala onke phambi kokuba sikhule amazinyo. Bhukisha incoko ye-Bitcoin yokulinganisa kwaye ndiza kusebenza ngeenombolo zakho zokwenyani, hayi uluhlu lwegeneric ebolekwe kwiphepha lomncono lomnye umntu.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Yeyiphi ipesenti yepotfoliyo yam ekufuneka ndiyabele iBitcoin eMzantsi Afrika?
Akukho mpendulo inye echanekileyo. Imifuziselo yamaziko idla ngokubhekisa kwi-1 ukuya kwi-5% yolwabiwo, kwaye uphando lwe-Fidelity lufumene ukuphucuka okubukhali kwimbuyekezo elungelelanisiweyo yomngcipheko njengoko ipotifoliyo isuka kwinto engekhoyo ukuya kwi-3%. Kubatyali-mali baseMzantsi Afrika abaxhalabileyo malunga nokuhla kwerandi, ukulinganisa isiphelo esiphezulu kunokuthetheleleka ngezizathu zokuthi xhaxhe ngemali. Olona vavanyo lokwenyani aluyopesenti nangona: sebenzisa ukuhla nge-60% kwisabelo sakho esicwangcisiweyo kwaye ubuze ngokunyanisekileyo ukuba usabambe. Ukuba impendulo ithengiswa, inkulu kakhulu.
Ngaba kungcono ukutyala isixa-mali okanye uthenge ngokuthe chu?
Kubantu abaninzi, ukuthenga ngokuthe chu ngokuthenga rhoqo ngerandi emiselweyo kuthembeke ngakumbi kunesixa esinye. Ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kuthetha ukungena ngesixa-mali ngexesha elibi kunokudala isiqalo esibuhlungu esikhokelela ekuthengiseni kwangoko. Ukuthenga rhoqo okuphakathi kwexabiso lakho lokungena kwaye uthabathe uxinzelelo lokubeka ixesha etafileni. Apho isixa esikhulu singenakuthintelwa, ukusasaza ukungena kwiinyanga eziliqela kwenza umsebenzi ofanayo.
Ukuhla kwerandi kulichaphazela njani ityala lokubamba iBitcoin?
Irandi yehle kakhulu xa ithelekiswa nedola kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini idlulileyo. I-Bitcoin ixatyiswa kwihlabathi jikelele ngokweedola kunye neempendulo akukho sigqibo senziweyo ePitoli, ngoko ke ummi waseMzantsi Afrika oyibambeyo uyaxhamla ekuthotyweni kwerandi ngendlela efanayo nomntu ophethe izabelo zamashishini angaphandle okanye imali yedola. Xa irandi ityibilika, ixabiso lerandi lokubamba liyenyuka nokuba ixabiso ledola alikashukumi, yiyo loo nto i-hedge case inokuthethelela ukulinganisa isiphelo esiphezulu soluhlu.
Ngobuphi ubungakanani kufuneka ndiqale ukucinga malunga nokubamba isakhiwo kunye nokugcinwa?
Igama lomntu lisiqalo esisebenzayo kwaye lilungile kwizikhundla ezincinci. Nje ukuba ukubamba kube sisabelo esinentsingiselo yexabiso lakho lemali, irhafu, ilifa kunye neziphumo zokulandelelana kwesakhiwo, igama lomntu, inkampani okanye i-trust, kufanelekile ukuphononongwa kunye nengcali, kuba ukuyilungisa emva kokuba isikhundla sikhulile sisiganeko serhafu ebiza kakhulu. Ugcino lulinganisa ngendlela efanayo: isayizi obuya kuyishiya kutshintshiselwano ngamawaka ambalwa eerandi ifanele ukugcinwa okunikezelweyo kumakhulu ambalwa amawaka. Ukwenza izigqibo zombini kwangethuba kunexabiso eliphantsi kakhulu kunokuthatha isigqibo emva kwexesha.
Fumana inombolo onokuthi uyibambe.
I-SimplB inceda abantu baseMzantsi Afrika bathenge, bakhusele kwaye bamise i-Bitcoin ngokuthobelayo, njengoMmeli woBugqwetha we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukisha umnxeba weBitcoin ubukhulu