I-Bitcoin njengeHedge: Yintoni eyona mpikiswano

I-Bitcoin ayiluthango oluchasene nenyanga embi. Yehla ngesiqingatha ngoMatshi ka-2020 ngelixa ilizwe lalifuna iidola. Into eyenzileyo kwiminyaka emininzi kukukhusela amandla okuthenga ngokuchasene nokuvuza okucothayo okuvela ekudaleni imali. Kubo bonga imali boMzantsi Afrika ababukele irandi isiba buthathaka kumashumi eminyaka, umahluko phakathi kwala mabango mabini ufanele ukuba uchaneke kanye.

Umcwangcisi wezezimali eKapa wakha wandithumelela umngeni womgca omnye nge-imeyile, ebuza ukuba i-asethi enokuthi yehle ngama-30% ngekota ingabizwa njani ngokuba luthango. Umceli mngeni ufuna impendulo ethe ngqo. Uninzi lwentengiso ebeka igama elithi hedge ecaleni kweBitcoin ayizange izikhathaze ukuchaza nokuba yiyiphi ikota.

Yintoni iheji eneneni ithetha

Iheji ikhusela kumngcipheko othile. Leyo yinkcazo epheleleyo. Imvula yesambrela ibhijela. I-inshurensi ikhusela umlilo. Iinshorensi yobomi ikhusela ukufa kwangoko. Igama liqala kuphela lithetha into xa uchaza umngcipheko, kulapho kanye iincoko ezininzi zeBitcoin ziwa. Abantu bayithenga belindele ukukhuselwa kuyo yonke into, emva koko bazive bengcatshiwe xa iwela ecaleni kweJohannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) kwiveki embi.

Ishishini lotyalo-mali lisebenzisa igama ngokukhululeka kakhulu kunoko. Nayiphi na i-asethi eye yanyuka ngelixa enye into iye yehla ifumana ileyibhile okwexeshana, de kwaphuke unxulumano. Uthango olufanelekileyo luchazwa ngomngcipheko owususayo, hayi ngetshathi yekota yokugqibela. Bambelela kuloo mahluko, kuba wenza uninzi lomsebenzi koku kulandelayo.

Ngoko chaza ingozi. I-Bitcoin yakhiwa njengempendulo yokusilela okuthile. Ngomhla we-3 kaJanuwari 2009 ibhloko yokuqala yenethiwekhi yachithwa kunye nesihloko sephephandaba esifakwe kwidatha yalo: "I-Chancellor kwi-brink ye-bailout yesibini kwiibhanki." Ithagethi ayizange ibe lixabiso legrosari. Yayilulungiselelo olungaphantsi: imali eyenziwe ngummiselo, eyandisiweyo phantsi koxinzelelo kwaye ibanjwe egameni lakho ngamaziko anokusilela okanye akukhuphele ngaphandle.

Loo mbali inika iBitcoin amabango amathathu athembekileyo eheji. Ikhusela ukuthotywa kwemali, kuba unikezelo alunakwandiswa ukuze lulungele nabani na. Ibiyela ukuthinjwa kunye nokungaphumeleli kwebhanki, kuba yi-asethi yomthwali engenakho ukukhenkcezwa okanye ibanjwe ngaphandle kokufikelela kwizitshixo zabucala. Kwaye kubemi boMzantsi Afrika ngokukodwa, ikhusela ubomi bonke bomsebenzi wokuvezwa kwimali yemalike encinci esakhulayo. Nabani na oye wabukela ibhanki yendawo evala ii-akhawunti zeshishini elidiniweyo uyayiqonda ibango lesibini ngaphandle komzobo.

Akukho nalinye kula mabango likhankanyayo kwinyanga ezayo. Oko kushiywa kuyo yonke ingongoma.

Kutheni le nto i-Bitcoin yaphuka ngo-Matshi 2020 ukuba iluthango?

Kwiveki yesibini kaMatshi ka-2020 iBitcoin ilahlekelwe malunga nesiqingatha sexabiso layo kwiintsuku ezimbini. Igolide yawa nayo. Kwenze njalo izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo, iibhondi kunye nayo yonke enye into enexabiso, kuba kwimali yokwenyani yokoyika abatyali mali abathengisi into abafuna ukuyithengisa. Bathengisa oko banako. I-Bitcoin irhweba iyure nganye yemihla ngemihla ngokuhlaliswa kwangoko, enye yezona asethi zithengiswa kakhulu emhlabeni. Ngomdibaniso weedola eyona asethi engamanzi ihamba phambili.

Ingxelo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso omthengi ifuna ukunyaniseka okufanayo. Embindini we-2022 i-American CPI yoshicilelo ifikelele kwi-9%, iphakamileyo kwiminyaka engamashumi amane, ngelixa i-Bitcoin ithengisa ngaphezu kwe-35% ngaphantsi kwenqanaba layo ngonyaka ngaphambili. Nabani na owayithenga njengetracker yexesha lokwenene yexabiso lepetroli wayephoxeke kakhulu. I-CPI ijonge ngasemva kumaxabiso onyaka ophelileyo. Iimarike zijonge phambili. I-Bitcoin ithande ukuhamba ngokulindelekileyo kwikamva lokudalwa kwemali, hayi kwinyanga ephelileyo. Uvavanyo olufanayo lusebenza ngokwemiqathango yaseMzantsi Afrika: amafutha anyuka nge-28.7% ngonyaka njengoko ndibhala, ngelixa i-Bitcoin ichitha ubusika isetyisa umothuko we-geopolitical. Akukho nyani ikuxelela nantoni na ngenye.

Ipateni iphindaphindwe mva nje ngoMeyi ka-2026, xa ukungavisisani phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran kutyhalele phambili abatyali-mali emngciphekweni. I-Bitcoin ityibilike ukusuka ngaphezulu kweedola ezingama-80,000 ukuya kuma-70,000 eedola kwaye ngaphezulu kwe-2 yeebhiliyoni zeedola yashiya indawo yase-US yee-ETF zeBitcoin kwiiveki ezimbini. I-S&P 500 yenyuka kuyo yonke isiqendu.

Ibango alizange libe ukuba i-Bitcoin iphakame xa iimarike ziwa.

Nabani na owakuthengisela yona njenge-inshurensi yexesha elifutshane wayeyiphethe. Ndingathanda ukuphulukana nokuthengiswa kunokuba ndivumele umxhasi akholelwe kwi-pitch.

Iheji yedatha ixhasa ngokwenene

Khulula ingxolo kwaye ubudlelwane obunye buhlala bubonakala. Iqela lophando lwe-asethi yedijithali yeFidelity yalinganisa ukulingana phakathi kwexabiso leBitcoin kunye nokukhula konikezelo lwemali lweM2 yehlabathi kwiminyaka eyi-15. I-R-squared yaphuma kwi-0,87, oku kuthetha ukuba i-87% yenguqu kwixabiso le-Bitcoin inokuchazwa ngotshintsho kwimali ebanzi. Ukunyaniseka kulumkile ukubiza olo lungelelwaniso kunokuba kube yimbangela eqinisekisiweyo, ngelixa wongeza ukuba ithathela ingqalelo ikhonkco le-causal eliyinyani ukusuka kumbono wethiyori yezoqoqosho. Nam.

Umatshini awumangalisi. Xa iibhanki ezingoovimba zandisa unikezelo lwemali, i-liquidity entsha kufuneka ifike ndaweni ithile. I-Bitcoin ifunxa isabelo sayo kwaye iphinde ihlawule ngokulindelekileyo kwi-dilution yexesha elizayo, iziphatha kancinci njengesitokhwe setekhnoloji kwaye ngakumbi njenge-barometer ye-fiat debasement. I-United States ikhulise i-M2 yayo ngaphezulu kwe-40% ngaphantsi kweminyaka emithathu malunga nobhubhane. Itshathi yeBitcoin phezu kolusuko olufanayo ayiyonto yanto.

Isiphumo esisebenzayo kukuba kufuneka ugwebe uthango kwimijikelo yemali, hayi kushicilelo lweCPI. Ngolwandiso olukhulu luka-2020 kunye no-2021 i-Bitcoin ibuyiselwe kakhulu. Xa kuphuma amanzi ngo-2022 kwehle kakhulu. Zombini iintshukumo zibubudlelwane obufanayo obubonwa kwiziphelo ezichaseneyo, leyo yindlela kanye i-barometer yemali ekufuneka iziphathe ngayo.

Kukho amandla azolileyo ngaphantsi, enye i-IMF ibiza ngokuzithoba ingcinezelo yezemali: ukubamba inzala yokwenyani ngaphantsi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuze amatyala karhulumente acutheke ngokwenyani. Isebenza ngokuchanekileyo kuba irhafisa abongi ngaphandle kokubathumelela ityala. I-asethi yobonelelo olusisigxina lulwakhiwo oluchasene nolo lungiselelo, yiyo loo nto ndigcina ingxabano yobonelelo olusisigxina embindini wencoko nganye yomxhasi.

Inguqulelo yaseMzantsi Afrika yengxaki

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eMzantsi Afrika kukwi-avareji ye-8.47% ngonyaka ukususela ngo-1968. Kufikelele kwi-20.7% ngoJanyuwari ka-1986. Kwaneshumi leminyaka eliziphethe kakuhle lakutshanje lenze umonakalo othe cwaka: amaxabiso abathengi anyuke nge-65% phakathi kuka-2010 no-2020 kumyinge we-5.2% kuphela ngonyaka. Akukho mntu waziva ephangiwe nangayiphi na inyanga kuloo minyaka ilishumi. Nabani na ogcine ugcino lwexesha elide emalini uselahlekelwe ngaphezulu kwesithathu samandla akhe okuthenga. Ukusukela ngoMeyi ka-2026 izinga elisemthethweni libuyele kwi-4.5%, lityhalwe kakhulu ngamafutha.

Irandi ibalisa ibali elinye kwelinye icala. Isuke kwi-R14 ukuya kwidola ekupheleni kuka-2019 yaya kutsho kwi-R18.70 kwiminyaka emihlanu kamva. Ukunika le mali intlawulo yayo, u-2025 ibingowona nyaka ubalaseleyo ukusukela ngo-2009, irali ye-14% ethe yalibuyisela kufutshane ne-R16.50. Iirali ziyenzeka. Indlela yolwakhiwo kwiminyaka engamashumi amabini ayitshintshanga, isilayidi esicothayo ndisibeke ngokufanelekileyo ukuba i-70% yesilayidi serandi ithetha ntoni kwiBitcoin. Umlondolozi okhetha isicwangciso seminyaka elishumi ezayo kufuneka alinganise irekhodi ezimbini zokugqibela.

Emva koko kukho inxalenye yebali phantse akukho mntu ufundayo. Ngenyanga yoKwindla ka-2020 iBhanki enguVimba yaseMzantsi Afrika (SARB) iye yangena kwimarike yebhondi eqandisiweyo yaza yabhengeza, ngawayo amazwi, ukuba izakwenza imali yokuthenga izinto zexabiso. Ngo-Okthobha ka-2020 yayithenge i-R38.8 yeebhiliyoni zeebhondi zikarhulumente. I-balance sheet yayo ikhule phantse nge-15% ngoMatshi kuphela. I-Bhanki ibisoloko igxininisa ukuba oku ibingekokuthomalalisa ngokomlinganiselo.

Ngo-2024 kwafika ilungiselelo le-GFECRA. Loo akhawunti irekhoda iinzuzo zohlaziyo koovimba belizwe begolide kunye notshintshiselwano lwangaphandle. Yayikwi-R28 bhiliyoni ngo-2003. Ngo-2024 yayikhule ngaphaya kwama-R500 eebhiliyoni, ubukhulu becala ngenxa yokuba irandi iye yahlala isihla. I-R150 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi ngoku ihlawulwa kuNondyebo kwiminyaka emithathu yonke, ixhaswa ngezimali hayi ngokuthengisa oovimba kodwa ngokudala amatyala ebhanki enguvimba omtsha. Iingcali zezoqoqosho ezifunda ubuxhakaxhaka zichaza ukuba i-balance sheet isiphumo sibonakalisa ukulula komyinge, nokuba ithini na igama. Ngo-Oktobha 2025 imali ebanzi ibikhula nge-7.5% ngonyaka, nge-R22.4 yeebhiliyoni zokwandiswa kwenyanga enye ivela kumabango amatsha kwicandelo likarhulumente.

Inzuzo yokuhlaziya ukuba ubungakanani ayisiyo inzuzo yokurhweba. Yiminyaka engamashumi amabini yobuthathaka berandi, ebhalwe ngobunono ngabacwangcisi-mali bakarhulumente.

Akukho nanye kwezi zinto eyenza uMzantsi Afrika ube lixelegu. Iyenza iqheleke. Amatyala oluntu aphantse aphindeka kathathu ukusukela ngo-2008 ukuya malunga nama-75% eGDP. Ukuyisebenzela ngoku kuthatha isihlanu sengeniso karhulumente. Oorhulumente abaphantsi kolu hlobo loxinzelelo baxhomekeke kwimali yabo ekugqibeleni, kuba ezinye iindlela zibiza iivoti. Umbuzo womgcini ngowokuba ingaba yonke irandi yentsalela kufuneka iphile ngaphakathi kwaloo nkqubo, ukhetho endiluthelekise kwiindlela ezintathu I-Bitcoin ithelekiswa ne-offshore equity xa ithelekiswa nemali ye-USD.

Apho ukunqongophala kuvela khona

Uthango lusebenza, xa lusebenza, ngenxa yesigqibo soyilo olunye. Akusayi kubakho ngaphezu kwe-21 yezigidi ze-bitcoin. Ndayenza ingongoma The Strategic Reserve ukuba ikepusi ayisosikhokelo. Ngumthetho onyanzeliswa yiyo yonke i-node epheleleyo eqhuba isofthiwe. Naliphi na ilinge lokuyitshintsha liyakhatywa ngokuzenzekelayo, ngaphandle kwesibheno.

Ubonelelo olutsha lufika kwishedyuli engaphenduli mntu. Rhoqo kwiibhloko ezingama-210,000, rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine, izinga lokukhutshwa liye libe sisiqingatha. Abavukuzi bafumana i-50 entsha ye-bitcoin kwibhloko nganye kwi-2009. Ukususela kwi-2024 baye bafumana i-3.125. Ebudeni bonyaka we-2140 ukukhutshwa kuyeka ngokupheleleyo. Ngaphezulu kwe-90% yayo yonke i-bitcoin eya kuhlala ikhona sele ikhutshiwe, ngoko ke umbuzo we-dilution ulungiswe ngokubanzi kwangaphambili. Nabani na unokuphicotha oko kubonelelwa ngexesha lokwenyani esuka kwikhompyuter yasekhaya, kungekho ngxelo ye-inventri kwaye akukho mntu unokumthemba. Igolide ayikwazi ukuthetha into efanayo: xa ixabiso libaleka, abavukuzi bemba nzulu kwaye unikezelo luphendula. Unikezelo lweBitcoin aluphenduli nto.

Imithetho engenabalawuli ihlala iyeyona nkcazelo imfutshane ngokunyaniseka endiyaziyo.

Yintoni i-Bitcoin ayiyi kubiyela

I-Bitcoin ayibiyeli ukungabi namonde. Ayikubiyeli ukuthenga okuphezulu ngengxowa-mali yakho kaxakeka okanye ukujonga ixabiso rhoqo kusasa de ube uyaqhekeka. Ukuguquguquka ayisosiphene esilindele isiziba. Lixabiso lokubamba i-asethi encinci yemali ngelixa ilizwe lixoxa malunga nokuba lixabisa ntoni na, inqaku endilikhuphayo oko kuthetha ukuthini ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin.

Kananjalo ayibiyeli i-horizon engalunganga. Ilinganiswe ngaphezu kweentsuku ezingama-30 inokubonakala ingenankathalo. Ilinganiswe kwiminyaka esibhozo ihlaze phantse yonke enye into. Rhoqo kwiminyaka emine yokubamba ixesha kwimbali yeBitcoin iphele ingaphezulu kuneyaqalayo, irekhodi endingasoze ndithembise ukuba liya kuqhubeka kodwa andizuzenza ngathi nam. Umlawuli ufuna ukuba ndikukhumbuze ukuba i-crypto assets inobungozi obukhulu. Owam umgaqo ungqongqo: ubuncinci iminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwelishumi imbonakalo okanye akukho ndawo kwaphela.

Tshatisa i-asethi netyala

Ukubiyelwa kakuhle kuqala ngokuthelekisa isixhobo kwingxaki. Ukuba ingxaki yiNkonzo yeRhafu yaseMzantsi Afrika (SARS) intlawulo efunekayo kwiiveki ezintandathu, i-Bitcoin sisixhobo esingalunganga saloo mali. Ukuba ingxaki yeyokuba irandi kwiakhawunti yakho yokonga izakuthenga ngaphantsi ngo-2031 kunokuba ithenga namhlanje, iBitcoin sesinye sezixhobo ezimbalwa ezenzelwe oko. Xa ndisenza ndiyenza ibe yimali eyongezelekayo yenyanga ukusuka kwi-R1,000 ngenyanga, ndisakhela ekubeni umntu azigcine esuka kwi-R10,000, apho iipropati ze-asethi ziqala khona ukusebenza. Izikhundla ezinkulu zithethelela iVault, i-2-of-3 yokuseta i-multisig apho kungekho qhosha elinye linokuhambisa iimali zodwa. Ukucinga okufanayo kulinganisa ukusuka kwi-debit oda yenyanga ukuya kwi-on-off over-the-counter (OTC) ukuthengwa kuyo nayiphi na isayizi. Ukuba isithuba sihlala njani ecaleni kwe-offshore equity kunye nemali ngumbuzo owahlukileyo, omnye endiwuphendulayo Indawo yeBitcoin kwipotifoliyo eyohlukeneyo.

Umcwangcisi waseKapa ufumene inguqulelo emfutshane yayo yonke le nto kwimpendulo yam. I-Bitcoin ayiyi kugudisa ikota yakho. Yakhelwe ukukhusela iminyaka yakho, ixhaswa ngemali oyibekele bucala iminyaka ngabom. Gqiba ukuba yeyiphi irandi yakho eyenza ukuba ngowuphi umsebenzi, emva koko ubiyele ezo zinexesha ezandleni zazo.