Umngcipheko weBitcoin kunye nePotfoliyo: Ubalo olunyanisekileyo ngakumbi
Umngcipheko ophelisa indawo yeBitcoin phantse awukaze ube xabiso. Bubukhulu bendawo. Fumana ubungakanani obungalunganga kwaye i-drawdown eqhelekileyo ikuguqule ube ngumthengisi onyanzelweyo ngelona xesha libi kakhulu. Yilungise kwaye utsalo olufanayo lube yinombolo yephepha onokuthi uhlale kuyo. Olu lolona lubalo lunyanisekileyo, kwaye luqala ngokulinganisa ilahleko onokuthi uphile ngayo kunelahleko uyoyikayo.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Ukubalwa kwengozi ethembekileyo yeBitcoin akukho malunga nokuqikelela ixabiso. Imalunga nokulinganisa ukubamba ukuze ukuwa kwesiqingatha sexabiso layo, ekwenzeke ngokuphindaphindiweyo, kungaze kukunyanzelise ukuba uthengise. Yonke ifestile eqengqelekayo yeminyaka emine kwimbali yeBitcoin iphelile ilungile, kodwa ngabanini kuphela ababenobungakanani bokulinda abakhe bayiqokelela loo rekhodi. I-Bitcoin ebanjwe yimali onokuyidinga yi-asethi eyahlukileyo kwaleyo i-Bitcoin ibanjwe kwimali oyibekele bucala ishumi leminyaka.
Ndibukele abantu ababini bethenga isixa esifanayo seBitcoin ngexabiso lerandi elifanayo kwiveki enye kwaye bagqibela beneziphumo ezahlukileyo ngokupheleleyo. Enye ibanjwe iminyaka kwaye ihambe kakuhle. Omnye wathengisa ngoloyiko kwiinyanga ezilishumi elinesibhozo kamva, ehla nge-60%, kuba wayebeke imali apho wayengenako ukuyiyeka. I-asethi iziphathe ngokufanayo kuzo zombini. Ubungakanani khange.
Umngcipheko wokwenene kukuba ngumthengisi onyanzeliswayo
Uninzi lweengxoxo ezinobungozi malunga neBitcoin zilungisa ukuguquguquka, ngokungathi ingozi bubungakanani be-swing. Ujingi asiyonto ikwenzakalisayo. Into ekukhathazayo kukunyanzelwa ukuba uthengise i-mid-swing, ngexabiso ongalikhethanga, kuba ubomi okanye amandla anyanzelise isandla sakho. Ukutsalwa phantsi kwe-60% onokuyilinda kuyingxaki. Ukutsalwa kwentlawulo efanayo, xa intlawulo yeNkonzo yeRhafu yoMzantsi Afrika (SARS) ifuneka okanye intlawulo yezavenge zebhondi, iba yilahleko esisigxina.
I-Bitcoin yenza lo mgibe ube mandundu kunokuba uninzi lweempahla zenza, ngesizathu sokuba abantu bafane bacinge. Irhweba iyure nganye yemihla ngemihla kwaye izinze ngoko nangoko, ngoko ke xa usapho ludinga imali ngokukhawuleza kudla ngokuba yeyona nto ilula ukufikelela kuyo. Kwa eyona mali inconywa ngabantu yiyo eyenza ibe yi-asethi yokuqala ethengiswe ngokucudisa. Ngexesha loloyiko olubanzi lwentengiso idlala indima enkulu: ekuqaleni kuka-2026 intengiso yabona iminyhadala yosuku olunye yokubhangiswa kwe-2.56 yeebhiliyoni zeedola nge-30 kaJanuwari kunye ne-2.13 yeebhiliyoni nge-4 kaFebruwari, ukuthengiswa okunyanzeliswayo okuye kwandisa ukuwa kwakhe wonke umntu, kubandakanywa nabanini abangenzanga nto iphosakeleyo ngaphandle kobukhulu bezikhundla zabo kwisigwebo esibolekiweyo.
Ke umbuzo onyanisekileyo awukho ukuba iBitcoin ingawa kangakanani. Yile nto. Ngaba ungayibamba loo nto yokuwa ngaphandle kokufuna ukuyithengisa?
Yonke enye into ekubaleni umngcipheko ikwisibini kuloo mpendulo. Unokwenza imodeli yokuguquguquka kwiindawo ezintathu zedesimali kwaye ayikuxeleli nto iluncedo ukuba imali esisiseko ayizange ibe yeyakho ukutshixa ishumi leminyaka. Le yinxenye yomgangatho weengxelo zomngcipheko wokutsikiwa, kuba ispredishithi ayinako ukubona ukuba imali eyinkunzi yintshiyekela ngokunyanisekileyo okanye ithe cwaka ibekelwe intlawulo yesikolo ngoMatshi. Ndibuza ngayo ngokuthe ngqo ngaphambi kokuba ndibuze ngayo nayiphi na enye into, kuba impendulo enyanisekileyo kumbuzo omnye ithatha isigqibo esingaphezu kobukhulu besikhundla. Ukubamba ubungakanani obufanelekileyo obuxhaswe ngemali engafanelekanga kusekho ukuthengiswa okunyanzeliswayo okulinde i-trigger.
Ide kangakanani i-Bitcoin iwile ngokwenene
Nabani na olinganisa isikhundla ngokunyanisekileyo ufanelwe ngamanani okwenyani okutsalwa phantsi, hayi inguqulelo ethambileyo okanye engqukuva. Imbali yeBitcoin lulandelelwano lokuhla ngokukhohlakeleyo oluphazamisa ukunyuka okude. Incopho yokuwela kwi-2015 esezantsi yayimalunga nama-76%. Imarike yeebhere ye-2018 yayithatha phantsi malunga ne-57%. Kubo bonke ubomi bayo iye yafumana ubunzima bokutsalwa phantsi okuninzi ngaphezulu kwe-50%, uninzi lwazo lwadlula ama-80%, kwaye nganye ivakale ngexesha yenzeka ngayo njengesiphelo.
Le ayingomngcipheko womsila ekufuneka utshangatshangiswe kude. Yimozulu eqhelekileyo yale asethi. Umnini owenza izicwangciso zokuwa okuphezulu kwe-30% akayiqondi into anayo. Ndibeka ukulindela okunyanisekileyo kwisiqingatha sesithuba, kwaye nditsho ngaphambi kokuba nabani na athenge i-satoshi enye. Ukuba umxhasi akakwazi ukwenza umfanekiso wesikhundla sakhe esinqunyulwe ngesiqingatha ngaphandle kokufikelela kwiqhosha lokuthengisa, isikhundla sele sikhulu kakhulu, kwaye akukho xabiso lokukholelwa liya kulungisa oko mhla kwenzeka.
Ukuguquguquka akuyompazamo elindele ukulungiswa kwakhona. Lixabiso lokungeniswa kwi-asethi enexabiso lexesha lokwenyani ngelixa ihlabathi lixoxa malunga nokuba kufanelekile, inqaku endihamba ngalo ngokufanelekileyo oko kuthetha ukuthini ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin. Awuyifumani imbuyekezo yexesha elide ngaphandle kokuvuma ukuhlala phantsi. Aba babini beza njengesibini.
Kukho indlela eluncedo yokumisela kwakhona loo manani kunokuwoyika. Nganye kwezo zithintelo kwakhona, ngokujonga emva, inqaku apho abaguli babehlukana nabo bangenamonde. I-76% iwela kwi-2015 inike iingqekembe zokoyika ukuzola. Kwenzeka okufanayo ngo-2018, kwaye kwakhona ebusika obulandela i-2021. Akukho mntu wayeyonwabela ngelixa kwenzeka. Kodwa ingxelo ibonisa ukuba ukutsalwa phantsi akuzange kube ngumngcipheko ngokwako. Umngcipheko yayikukuba ngubani owayebambe xa ibetha, kwaye nokuba indawo yabo yayincinci ngokwaneleyo ukuba bangenza nto konke konke. Ukungenzi nto yeyona nto inzima kwaye inenzuzo kakhulu kule asethi, kwaye ifumaneka kuphela kubungakanani obuchanekileyo.
Kutheni ixesha lokubamba litshintsha iprofayili yomngcipheko
I-Bitcoin ebanjwe iinyanga ezilishumi elinambini kukubheja okuyingozi ngokwenene kwixabiso. I-Bitcoin ebanjwe kumjikelo opheleleyo sisindululo esahlukileyo ngokwahlukileyo, kwaye idatha kule nto icoceke ngokungaqhelekanga.
Yonke iminyaka emine yokubamba ifestile kwimbali yeBitcoin iphelile ngaphezulu kunokuba yaqala, kubandakanya iifestile eziqale kwiincopho zomjikelo. Elo rekhodi limiliselwe kwinto eyakhiweyo kunethamsanqa: isiqingatha sonikezelo lothungelwano luqingqwa rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine, ethe ngokwembali yabumba isingqisho sayo kunye nemijikelo yebhust. Umtyali-mali onombono omfutshane kunomjikelo omnye usesichengeni somngcipheko wexesha kwaye ukupheliswa kwehla ngokupheleleyo. Umtyali-mali ozibophelele kwixesha elipheleleyo, ukuza kuthi ga ngoku, uhlala ephuma kwelinye icala. Andisoze ndithembise ukuba irekhodi liyaqhubeka, kodwa andizukuzenza ngathi ndiyayilahla.
Yiyo loo nto ndisebenza kubuncinci beminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwelishumi kwaye ndiyala ukumisa isikhundla kuyo nayiphi na into emfutshane. Ixesha lokubamba alikho ukhetho. Yintlukwano enye eyenza i-Bitcoin isuke kwintelekelelo isiya kugcino, kwaye isizathu sokuba umonde uneyona rekhodi ilungileyo yalo naliphi na iqhinga endilaziyo.
Yintoni eyenziwa sisabelo esincinci kwipotfoliyo epheleleyo
Nantsi indawo emangalisa abantu. Isikhundla seBitcoin esilinganiswe ngokuchanekileyo asihambisani nomngcipheko wepotfoliyo ejikeleze kuyo, nangona iBitcoin ngokwayo iguquguquka kakhulu.
I-Fidelity -edijithali Assets iqhube i-arithmetic kumgangatho we-60/40 ipotfoliyo yesitokhwe kunye neebhondi. Ishiywe ngaphandle kweBitcoin konke konke, eyona ncopho imbi yokutsala umkhombe ngexesha lovavanyo yayili-19%. Yongeza i-5% ye-Bitcoin yesabelo kunye nembuyekezo iyonke phantse iphindwe kabini, ngelixa i-drawdown embi kakhulu yepotfoliyo yonke yenyuka kuphela kwi-22%. Ipesenti ezintathu zeepesenti zentlungu eyongezelelweyo ngokusondeleyo ukuphinda kabini ukubuya. Isizathu sokuba umonakalo uhlala uqulethwe kukuba i-Bitcoin ishukuma ngokuzimeleyo kwizabelo kunye neebhondi, ngoko ke iintsuku zayo ezimbi azihambelani ngokuthembekileyo kunye nezabo, kwaye ukulungelelaniswa okuqeqeshekileyo kugcina ubunzima ekubalekeni.
Funda eso siphumo ngononophelo, kuba siguqula inkcaso eqhelekileyo. Inkcaso kukuba i-Bitcoin iguquguquka kakhulu ukuba ibambe uxanduva. I-arithmetic ithetha okuchaseneyo kubunzima obuncinci: isilayi esithobekileyo se-asethi enobundlobongela, ngokuchanekileyo ngenxa yokuba ayihambi ngokuhambelana nezinye, ngokwenene iphucula imbuyekezo yepotfoliyo kumngcipheko omncinci kakhulu owongezelelweyo. Ukuguquguquka okulinganiswa ngokwako sisikhokelo esibi kumngcipheko wepotfoliyo. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo yindlela i-asethi eziphatha ngayo ecaleni kwayo yonke enye into onayo, kwaye kuloo mlinganiso i-Bitcoin yenze umsebenzi onokuthi i-asethi eguquguqukayo ephantsi ayinako, kuba i-asethi eguquguqukayo ephantsi ihamba ngokusondeleyo kakhulu kunye nomhlambi ukuhlukanisa nantoni na.
I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso yinkalo, kungekhona isiphene, xa ubunzima buncinci.
Uphando lwabo lukhomba indawo emnandi ye-1 ukuya kwi-3% kwiipotfoliyo ezininzi, kunye ne-5% njengesilingi esinengqiqo. Umlinganiselo ochanekileyo unobunzima obungaphantsi komgaqo ongaphantsi kwawo. Isikhundla esincinci ngokwaneleyo ukuba ilahleko iyonke inokuhlaba kodwa ingaphambuki kwisicwangciso sakho sisikhundla onokuthi usibambe kuyo nantoni na, kwaye ukubamba kuyo yonke into ngumdlalo uphela. Ukuba olu lwabiwo luhlala njani ecaleni kwezinye iimpahla zakho ngumbuzo owahlukileyo endisebenza kuwo Indawo yeBitcoin kwipotifoliyo eyohlukeneyo.
Ukuguqula umgaqo ube linani onokuthi ulibambe
Ukulinganisa kulapho ubalo olunyanisekileyo luba lolwakho, kuba ipesenteji efanelekileyo kumntu oneminyaka engama-35 ubudala onomvuzo ozinzileyo eGeorge asiyopesenti efanelekileyo kumntu odla umhlala-phantsi eKapa ofumana umvuzo. Ndithatha abantu ngale nto ngokufanelekileyo kwi isakhelo sokulinganisa indawo yeBitcoin, kodwa uvavanyo olusembindini walo lulula. Yiba nomfanekiso ngqondweni wesithuba sehle nge-70% ngomso kusasa. Ukuba elo nani lingatshintsha indlela olala ngayo okanye onokuthi uhlawule ngayo, likhulu kakhulu. Yinciphise de impendulo ibe nguhayi.
Izinto ezimbini emva koko zenza umsebenzi ozolileyo wokugcina indawo echanekileyo ibambekayo. Eyokuqala kukuyakha kancinci kancinci endaweni yentlama enye, ukuthenga isixa serandi esimiselweyo ngamaxesha aqhelekileyo ukusuka kwi-R1,000 encinane ngenyanga, nto leyo esasaza ukungena kumaxabiso aphezulu naphantsi kwaye isusa umthwalo wokuqikelela ukuba uthenge nini. Kubantu abaninzi ukuthelekelela yeyona nto inzima, kwaye ukuyisusa kuxabiseke ngaphezu kwalo naliphi na ixesha elikrelekrele.
Okwesibini yindlela i-Bitcoin ebanjwe ngayo. Ingqekembe ehleli ekutshintshisweni ithwala umngcipheko weqela elingenanto yakwenza nexabiso kunye nayo yonke into enokuyenza nokuba umgcini uhlala e-solvent kwaye ethembekile. I-Bitcoin yafudukela kwindawo efanelekileyo yokuzigcina isuka kwi-R10,000, okanye yaya kwiVault enezityikityo ezininzi ukuze kugcinwe izinto ezinkulu, ilususa ngokupheleleyo olo tyhileko. Ukhuseleko ayisosihloko esahlukileyo kumngcipheko. Yinxenye yobalo olufanayo, kuba isikhundla ongenakho ukuphulukana nokusilela komnye umntu sisikhundla ekunokwenzeka ukuba usibambe ngokutshona phantsi. Imali, okwangoku, ithwele umngcipheko omnye akukho mntu ubeka ingxelo yomngcipheko: ngokuzolileyo ilahlekelwa amandla okuthenga minyaka le irandi iba buthathaka, yiyo loo nto uthelekiso olunyanisekileyo lwalungazange lube yiBitcoin ngokuchasene nokhuseleko. Yayisoloko yeyiphi imingcipheko okhetha ukuyithwala.
Ukubala, kwenziwa ngokunyanisekileyo
Hlanganisa iziqwenga kunye nokubala okunyanisekileyo akubukeki njengenye abantu abaninzi ababalekayo. Ayizami ukuqikelela ukuba ixabiso liya phi kulo nyaka uzayo, kuba akukho mntu unako, kwaye ukwakha isikhundla kolo qikelelo yindlela abantu abaphela ngayo bengabathengisi ngenkani. Isebenza ngasemva kwilahleko onokuthi uphile ngayo ngokunyanisekileyo ngaphandle kokutshintsha ubomi bakho, ibeka isikhundla apho, ixhase ngemali kuphela ngemali eyinkunzi oye wayibekela bucala ngabom iminyaka, uyigcine eluvalelweni engayi kuthatyathwa kuwe, emva koko yenza eyona nto inzima kuzo zonke, engeyonto, ixesha elide kakhulu.
Lulo ke olo qeqesho luphela. Yonke enye into yingxolo.
Abantu ababini endibakhankanye ekuqaleni bathenga i-Bitcoin efanayo. Lowo uhamba phambili ngokukhululekileyo akazange aqikelele imarike ngcono. Wafaka nje imali awayenokuyilibala, kwimali awayengayidingi, waza wayiyeka irekhodi yeminyaka emine yenze umsebenzi wayo ngoxa enye indoda yayixakekile isenza ilahleko eyayicinywe yimarike kamva. Umahluko phakathi kwabo awuzange ube yingqiqo. Yaba yi-arithmetic egqitywe kwangaphambili, phambi kokuba omnye wabo azive esoyika imini enye.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Ingakanani i-Bitcoin drawdown endifanele ndiyicwangcise?
Cwangcisa ukuwa okungenani kwesiqingatha sesithuba, kuba oko kwenzeke ngokuphindaphindiweyo. Ukuhla kwi-2015 ephantsi yayimalunga ne-76% kwaye imarike yebhere ka-2018 yathatha i-Bitcoin phantsi malunga ne-57%, kunye namathontsi amaninzi adlulileyo kwi-80% kwimbali yayo. Ukuba isikhundla esisikwe phakathi siya kukunyanzela ukuba uthengise okanye utshintshe indlela olala ngayo, sikhulu kakhulu. Ubungakanani bayo ngoko i-70% yokuwa yinombolo yephepha ongayilinda ngaphandle, kungekhona isiganeko esiphelisa ukubamba.
Yintoni ngokwenene eyenza i-Bitcoin ibe yingozi kwipotfoliyo?
Ukuba ngumthengisi onyanzeliswayo, ngaphezu kokuguquguquka ngokwako. I-drawdown iba yilahleko esisigxina kuphela ukuba kufuneka uthengise kuyo, nokuba kungenxa yokuba usebenzise imali obuyidinga okanye ngenxa yokuba ubunamandla kakhulu. I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso iyasinda xa isikhundla sincinci ngokwaneleyo ukuba sibambe. Umgibe ubeka imali ongenakuyiyeka, emva koko ubeka ilahleko umnini wesigulana ebeya kuyifumana.
Ngaba ulwabiwo oluncinci lweBitcoin luvuthela umngcipheko wepotfoliyo yam?
Hayi, kwaye amanani aphikisana. I-Fidelity -edijithali Assets yafumanisa ukuba ukongeza i-5% ye-Bitcoin yesabelo kwi-potfoliyo ye-60/40 inyuse i-drawdown yayo embi kakhulu kuphela ukusuka kwi-19% ukuya kwi-22%, ngelixa iphinda kabini imbuyekezo iyonke. Unxulumano oluphantsi lweBitcoin kunye nezabelo kunye neebhondi, zidityaniswe nokulungelelaniswa okuqhelekileyo, kugcina umonakalo oqulethwe nangona i-Bitcoin ngokwayo iguquguquka kakhulu.
Yiyiphi ipesenti yepotfoliyo kufuneka ibe kwiBitcoin?
Akukho mpendulo jikelele. Uphando lwe-Fidelity lukhomba kwindawo emnandi ye-1 ukuya kwi-3%, kunye ne-5% njengesilingi enengqondo kwiipotfoliyo ezininzi. Uvavanyo olusebenzayo lulula kunayo nayiphi na ipesenti: ubukhulu bendawo ukuze ilahleko iyonke, ngelixa ibuhlungu, ingaphazamisi isicwangciso sakho sezemali okanye ikunyanzele ukuba uthengise ngexesha lokutsala. Book a call ukubala inombolo efanelekileyo yeemeko zakho.
Ubungakanani bayo ukuze ukwazi ukuyibamba
I-SimplB inceda abemi baseMzantsi Afrika ubukhulu, bathenge kwaye bakhusele indawo ye-Bitcoin ngokuthobelayo, njengoMmeli woBugqwetha we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukisha ifowuni yokulinganisa indawo