Kutheni ukubamba ixesha elide kuye kwaba yeyona ndlela ithembekileyo yeBitcoin
Yonke ifestile yeminyaka emine kwimbali yeBitcoin iphelile ngaphezu kokuba yaqala, kuquka iifestile ezivuleke kwiincopho zomjikelezo. Eso ayisosithembiso ngekamva kwaye andisoze ndisithengise njengesinye. Lirekhodi, kwaye ingxelo ithetha into enye ngalo lonke ixesha umntu ezama ukogqitha: isandla sesigulana sibetha lowo uxakekileyo. Yiyo le nto ndibuza abathengi ukuba babone i-horizon phambi kokuba ndibacele irandi.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Akukho mtyali-mali obambe iBitcoin kwiminyaka emine elandelelanayo uye waphela phantsi kwamanzi, iincopho zomjikelezo zibandakanyiwe. Isiqingatha sinciphisa ubonelelo olutsha ngomhla omiselweyo kodwa akuxeleli nto inokuthenjwa malunga nokuba ixabiso liya phezulu nini, ngoko akukho mqondiso othi thengisa ngoku kwaye uthenge emva kwexesha. Ixesha kwimarike lenze umsebenzi wokuba ixesha lemarike lizenza nje. Bambelela kumbono weminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwelishumi, khusela izitshixo, kwaye uvumele umjikelo uqhube ngaphandle kokuphazamiseka kwakho.
Bendisenza oku eMzantsi Afrika ukusukela ngo-2016, kwaye ipateni ayikatshintshi.
Umxhasi othe wathenga kwaye wayishiya yedwa phantse usoloko egqiba phambi kwalowo wayebukele itshathi, ethengiswa kwisihloko esothusayo kwaye emva koko wachitha iminyaka emibini esebenza kwi-nerve yokuthenga kwakhona phezulu kunokuba bathengisiwe. Akukho namnye kubo owayekrelekrele kunomnye. Babenolwazi olufanayo kunye nokufikelela okufanayo kuyo. Omnye usuke wala ukwenza isigqibo sokuba imarike ihlala isohlwaya abantu ngokwenza. Enye yaqhubeka iyenza, ijikeleza emva komjikelo, kwaye yayihlawula rhoqo.
Kutheni le nto isiqingatha yenza ukuba ixesha libe nzima kangaka
Zonke iibhloko ze-210,000, ezisebenza phantse yonke iminyaka emine, inani le-bitcoin entsha ehlawulwe kubasebenzi basezimayini kwibhloko nganye inqunywe kwisiqingatha. Oku kubhalwe kwiprotocol kwaye akukho komiti inokuyihambisa. Ukuncipha kwesiqingatha kuthoba ukuhamba kobonelelo olutsha ngomhla onokuthi uwuphawule kwidayari yakho kwiminyaka ezayo. Into engenakukuxelela yona kuxa imakethi iya kuthi ekugqibeleni inike ixabiso lokunqongophala, okanye ukuba intshukumo iya kuhamba kangakanani xa sele iqalile.
Jonga apho zifike khona imiphezulu. Umsebenzi womjikelo we-Fidelity ubeka iincopho zakutsha nje malunga ne-526 ukuya kwiintsuku ezingama-546 emva kokwahlulwa kwabo, kwaye i-Okthobha ka-2025 ephezulu kufutshane ne-126,000 yeedola yafika ngaphakathi kwefestile eqikelelweyo. Iluncedo xa ucinga. Ayinamsebenzi njengomyalelo wokurhweba, kuba ibhendi ebanzi ngumahluko phakathi kokuthengisa unyaka kwangoko kakhulu kunye nokuthengisa iinyanga ezintandathu emva kwexesha, kwaye zombini ezo ziimpazamo ezibiza kakhulu zinxibe njengokuziphatha.
Ukunqongophala kokwenyani kunye nokwakheka. Ixesha layo liqikelelo. Lo msantsa phakathi kwesiqinisekiso somthetho kunye nento ekungekho mntu unokuqinisekisa kulapho iindlela zokurhweba ezisebenzayo zahlukana khona. Ndiyangena ukuba kutheni iijingi ngokwazo zingenasiphako oko kuthetha ukuthini ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin.
Eyona nto iboniswa lirekhodi lexesha lokubamba
Qala ngokutsalwa, kuba lilixabiso lokungeniswa kunye nokwenza ngathi ngenye indlela akuncedi mntu. I-Bitcoin ihlupheke ngokuwa okuninzi okungaphezulu kwe-50%, ezininzi zazo zidlulileyo kwi-80%. Ukuwa kuka-2014 kuqhube malunga ne-76% yencopho yokuloba. Ibhere ye-2018 ithathe malunga ne-57% kwaye yahlala inxalenye engcono yonyaka. Nabani na okuxelela ukuba uhambo luhamba kakuhle uyaxoka okanye khange afike ixesha elide. Ukuhlala kwelinye lazo ngaphandle kokuthengisa, udinga isizathu sokubamba esinda kwiscreen esigcwele obomvu, into eyahlukileyo ngokupheleleyo kwithagethi yexabiso.
Ngoku bamba amava amabini ecaleni. Umtyalo-mali othenge kufuphi nencopho kaDisemba 2017 malunga ne-$ 19,000 ibukele ixabiso legazi malunga ne-$ 3,200 ekupheleni kwe-2018. Lo ngunyaka okhohlakeleyo wokuba nantoni na. Lowo wayibambayo wachacha kwaza kwalandela ezinye. Lowo uthengise kufutshane naphezulu, ezithembisa ukuba uya kuthenga kwakhona ngexabiso eliphantsi, wabaleka wangena engxakini akukho mntu ukulumkisayo malunga nayo: umzantsi uyabonakala kuphela emva koko. Amawaka amathathu eedola aziva ngathi sisiqalo sesiphelo xa yayishicilelwa, hayi intengiso. Uninzi lwabathengisi balinde ubungqina bokuba ukubuyiswa bekuyinyani, kwaye ubungqina buhlala bufika kwixabiso eliphezulu kuneliphantsi.
Ke ukubaleka kuka-2020 ukuya kowama-2021 kuhambe ngokukhawuleza kangangokuba abantu ababethengisiwe ngo-2018 bayichitha bebukele ukusuka kumgca wokuchukumisa njengoko iBitcoin ivuthuza kukuphakama kwayo kwakudala kwaye iqhubeka nokunyuka. Akukho tshathi ibamba iindleko zaloo nto. Kulinganiswa ngokuzisola, kwaye ukuzisola iikhompawundi ezimbi kakhulu kunayo nayiphi na intlawulo.
Ndandinomthengi eGeorge owenze kanye oku kumjikelo ka-2021. Wathengisa uninzi lwesikhundla esisempilweni ekuqaleni kuka-Epreli kuba i-akhawunti elandelwe kakuhle ku-X yayifowunela phezulu, wazithembisa ukuba uya kuthenga kwakhona amashumi amabini eepesenti ngaphantsi, kwaye wabukela ixabiso lisila ukuya phezulu kunokuba limbophele. Ngexesha ayamkelayo idiphu awayeyilindile yayingafiki, wayethenga kwakhona entla kwalapho wayethengisa khona. Uyindoda enonyameko, enobuchule kurhwebo lwakhe, kwaye akukho nanye eyamsindisa kwisigqibo esinye isicwangciso esikhoyo sokusisusa. Xa wamisela ukuthengwa kwenyanga emiselweyo emva koko kwaye wayeka ukubukela, iziphumo zakhe zaphucula ngokuthula, kungekhona ngenxa yokuba imarike itshintshile kodwa ngenxa yokuba wenza.
Impazamo ifihla kwi-arithmetic
Kukho isizathu sezibalo sokuba umrhwebi alahlekelwe, kungekhona nje isizathu se-nerve. Imbuyekezo yenyanga yeBitcoin yile nto abaphandi bayibiza ngokuzithoba i-fat-tailed kunye ne-right-skewed: iinyanga ezilungileyo zixhaphake kwaye zigqithise kakhulu kunezo ezimbi. Iqela le-Fidelity libhala oku kuguquguquka okuhle, umfanekiso wesipili semarike endala ethetha malunga nezitokhwe ezithatha izitebhisi kunye nokunyusa. I-Bitcoin ithande ukwenza okuchaseneyo, ihambisa iinzuzo zayo ngokugqabhuka okunobundlobongela ngequbuliso.
Olo phawu lulodwa ludiliza ngokuzolileyo ityala lokurhweba. Ngenxa yokuba i-upside ifika kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezingalindelekanga, umtyalo-mali ongena ngaphakathi nangaphandle uhlala elahlekile kwiiseshoni ezichanekileyo ezithwala yonke imbuyekezo. Hlala ngaphandle kweveki engalunganga kwaye unyaka uhambile. I-Fidelity's backtesting yafikelela kwisigqibo esivakala sicace kakhulu ukuba singahlawulelwa: oyena mqhubi mkhulu wesiphumo esihle yayisisigqibo nje sokuphuma ku-zero kwaye uhlale utyaliwe. Hayi ixabiso lokungena. Ayingomthombo wenkxaso-mali. Ukuba nje emarikeni xa iintsuku ezilungileyo zafika.
Ukuthengisa ukuphepha ukutsalwa phantsi, ke, akukho lawulo lomngcipheko. Kukubheja ukuba unokukuphepha ukuwa ngaphandle kokuphepha iintsuku ezibaluleke kakhulu, kwaye akukho mntu ubonise ukuba angayenza loo nto ngokuthembekileyo kabini.
Imarike ihlawula ubukho, hayi ubukrelekrele.
Iindleko zokungalunganga, kabini
Urhwebo olusebenzayo luthwala iindleko isigulane sibambe ayenzi. Yonke into ethengiweyo kunye nayo yonke intengiso inqumla ukusasazeka. EMzantsi Afrika yonke into echithwayo sisiganeko esirhafiswayo, iinzuzo zenkunzi kufuneka zibhengezwe, kwaye ukuba urhweba rhoqo ngokwaneleyo iNkonzo yeRhafu yoMzantsi Afrika (SARS) inokuliphatha lonke ishishini njengengeniso kunenkunzi kwaye irhafiswe ngokwemilinganiselo yengeniso. Ukubamba iminyaka emininzi ecaleni kolu ngquzulwano ngokulula ngokungatshintshi.
Iindleko ezinkulu azilunganga. Umrhwebi othengisa phambi kokubaleka kwaye athenge umva ophezulu uye wavala ngexabiso elibi kakhulu kunomntu ongazange achukumise isikhundla. Yenza loo mpazamo kube kanye kwaye iyahlaba. Yenze inqumle imijikelo emibini, eyona nto uloyiko luthanda ukuvelisa, kwaye ukutsalwa kwinombolo yakho yokugqibela kukhulu. Lo ngumgibe wokuziphatha endikhulula kuwo uloyiko lokuphoswa kwiBitcoin, ibonwa kwicala lokuthengisa kunecala lokuthenga.
Akukho nanye kule nto ithi ukurhweba ngeBitcoin akunakwenzeka. Abanye abantu benza kakuhle. Umbuzo onyanisekileyo ngowokuba ingaba unalo na ulwazi, umoya wentsimbi kunye neeyure zasimahla zokukhuphisana needesika ezingenzi nto yimbi imini yonke. Kuninzi lwabemi boMzantsi Afrika ababambe umsebenzi kunye nosapho, impendulo eyinyani ithi hayi, kwaye ndingathanda ukutsho kunokuba ndikucekisele kwiqhinga elizokubiza imali.
Indlela imarike yokuvuthwa iwutshintsha ngayo umfanekiso
Kukho into etshintshileyo kulo mjikelo, kwaye kufanelekile ukubiza igama ngokunyanisekileyo kunokubambelela kwiskripthi esidala. I-Bitcoin iphumelele i-capitalisation yemalike eqikelelwa kwi-2.5 yeetriliyoni zeedola ngasekupheleni kuka-2025. Ngoku iphinda-phindwe kaninzi kwaye inzulu kunokuba yayinjalo kwincopho zika-2017 okanye ngo-2021, kunye nemali yeziko eqhubekayo engena nge-ETFs kunye nobuncwane benkampani. Obo bukhulu budambisa iijingi. Abahlalutyi barekhoda amatsha amatsha aphantsi kwixesha eliguqukayo lonyaka omnye ekuqaleni kuka-2026, kwiinyanga emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso amatsha, okungeyiyo indlela awayeziphatha ngayo iBitcoin encinci.
Isiphelo sovavanyo esivela kubantu abalinganisa oku sesokuba isingqisho seminyaka emine ye-blow-off top elandelwa yi-80% yokuwa inokuthi ithambe ibe yinto efana ne-asethi enkulu ekhulayo exabisa kumgca wobundlobongela obuncinci. Ndibambe loo mbono ngokukhululekileyo, kuba imijikelo emibini ayenzi mthetho kwaye ndiyibukele i-Bitcoin ihlazisa izibikezelo ezithembekileyo ngaphambili. Ukuba ide ibe sisiqingatha sokulungileyo, yomeleza ityala lokuyibamba endaweni yokuyenza buthathaka. I-cline ethambileyo kulula kakhulu ukuhlala kuyo kunengxondorha, kwaye yonke ingxabano yomonde yayihlala isithi i-asethi ivuza umntu ohlala esihlalweni.
Yiyiphi indlela yexesha elide ekhangeleka ngayo ekusebenzeni
Isikhundla sexesha elide sineendawo ezimbini ezihambayo. Fumana iBitcoin ngexabiso eliphakathi elivakalayo, emva koko uyikhusele ngokufanelekileyo iminyaka ojonge ukuyibamba. Zombini zilula kunokuba abantu balindele kwaye azifuni ukuba uqikelele nantoni na.
I-avareji yexabiso leRandi ilawula ukuthenga. Imali emiselweyo yerandi ngexesha elibekiweyo lithetha ukuba uzichole ngokuzenzekelayo i-Bitcoin eninzi xa ixabiso liphantsi nangaphantsi xa liphezulu, kwaye ixabiso lakho eliphakathi lihlala embindini ngelixa uqhubeka nobomi bakho. Isusa esona sigqibo sinzima kutyalo-mali, kuxa ucofa iqhosha, kwaye uyinike ishedyuli. Ndibeke ityala elipheleleyo idola-ixabiso eliphakathi kwiBitcoin. Izicwangciso zokonga ziqala kwi-R1,000 ngenyanga, indawo yokungena yokwenene kunenombolo yokuthengisa.
Ukuzigcina ngokwakho kuphatha ukhuseleko. I-Bitcoin eshiywe kutshintshiselwano ithwala umngcipheko weqela elinyamalalayo xa ubambe izitshixo zakho, kwaye ukubamba okulinganiselwe kwiminyaka akufuneki kuphumle ekucingeni ukuba naliphi na iqonga elinikiweyo liya kunyibilika xa ufuna iingqekembe zakho zibuye. Ukuzigcina ngokukhokelwayo kuqala xa uwela i-R10,000, apho ukubamba izitshixo zakho kuqala ukufumana iinzame zokuseta. Izikhundla ezinkulu zithethelela iVault, isakhiwo se-multisig apho kungekho sitshixo esinye esinokuhambisa i-Bitcoin yodwa.
Isicwangciso silula. Uqeqesho lokuyibamba kwimarike yebhere ende ayisiyiyo, yiyo loo nto isizathu sokuba ubambe kubala kakhulu njengoomatshini. I-horizon sisigqibo osenzayo kube kanye. Njengoko ndiyibeka kubathengi, ndiboleka umgca ukusuka The Strategic Reserve, Uqikelelo lulinganiswa kwiitshathi zexabiso kunye nesicwangciso sokugcina silinganiswa kumashumi eminyaka. Ukuba ungathanda ukuba i-horizon imiswe ngokufanelekileyo, ukusuka kwi-debit order yokuqala ukuya kumhla izitshixo zihlala nawe, qala isicwangciso sakho seBitcoin apha kwaye ndiza kuyakha malunga nexesha onokuthi uligcine.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Ngaba yonke i-4 yeminyaka yokubamba i-Bitcoin ixesha libe nenzuzo ngokwenene?
Kwingxelo yembali, ewe. Yonke ifestile yeminyaka emine kwimbali yexabiso leBitcoin iphelile ngaphezu kokuba yaqala, kuquka iifestile ezivulwe kwiincopho zomjikelo njengoDisemba 2017 okanye ngoNovemba 2021. Oko akuqinisekisi ikamva. Imbali yexabiso igubungela kuphela iminyaka eyi-15, ngoko ibango lichaza okwenzekileyo kunokuqikelela ukuba kuya kwenzeka ntoni. Umlawuli ufuna ngokufanelekileyo ukuba ndikukhumbuze ukuba ii-asethi ze-crypto zisemngciphekweni omkhulu.
Kuthekani ukuba ndithenga kanye phambi kwengozi enkulu?
Ingxelo icebisa ukuba umonde ubuyise ilahleko, ukuba ngaba ubambe ilahleko. Umntu othenge kufutshane nencopho kaDisemba ka-2017 emalunga ne-19,000 yeedola ubukele ixabiso liwela malunga ne-3,200 yeedola ekupheleni kuka-2018 kwaye wahlala phantsi kwamanzi iminyaka emibini ukuya kwemithathu ngaphambi kokuba alulame. Elo lixesha elide lokuhlala kwilahleko yephepha, kulapho ubungakanani besikhundla bufumana ukugcinwa kwayo: bamba kuphela into onokukwazi ukuyishiya wedwa kwimakethi yeminyaka emininzi yeebhere.
Ngaba kukho isizathu esilungileyo sokuthengisa i-Bitcoin?
Ewe. Ukuthengwa kwendlu, imeko engxamisekileyo yokwenyani okanye umvuzo womhlalaphantsi zonke zizizathu ezivakalayo zokubhangisa inxalenye yesikhundla. Ukuhlengahlengisa ipotifoliyo ekhule kakhulu iBitcoin-weighted isengqiqweni nayo. Ukuthengisa ngenxa yokuba ixabiso lehlile okanye ngenxa yokuba umoya ujike waba mnyama sisizathu sokuba abatyali-mali abaninzi bagqibele ngembuyekezo embi kune-asethi ngokwayo.
Ngaba esi sicwangciso sisebenza kubatyali-mali baseMzantsi Afrika ngokukodwa?
Ubuchwephesha busebenza kuye nawuphi na umtyali-mali, kodwa abemi boMzantsi Afrika banesizathu esongezelelekileyo sokuthanda ukubanjwa ixesha elide: ubuthathaka berandi budibanisa imbuyekezo xa iBitcoin iguqulwa ekugqibeleni ibuyele kwirandi. I-asethi exabisa ngokweedola ngelixa imali yakho yasekhaya iphulukana nomhlaba ngokuchasene nedola isebenza ngokuthanda kwakho kuzo zombini iindlela. Book a call ukuseka isicwangciso sexesha elide.
Bambelela nge-horizon, hayi i-hunch
I-SimplB inceda abatyali-zimali baseMzantsi Afrika bathenge kwaye babambe i-Bitcoin ngokufanelekileyo, njengoMmeli osemthethweni we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha umnxeba wokufunyanwa