I-Bitcoin vs i-Offshore Equity vs Imali ye-USD: Iindlela ezintathu abemi boMzantsi Afrika abaKhusela ubutyebi kuMngcipheko weRandi
Ummi waseMzantsi Afrika ogcine yonke irandi yogcino erandini kule minyaka ingamashumi amabini idlulileyo ukhule ehlwempuzeka ngokuzolileyo ngelixa engenzi nto iphosakeleyo. Ithuku lokubamba ubutyebi obuthile ngaphandle kwemali ayiyo-paranoia. Yi-arithmetic. I-equity ye-Offshore, i-iDola cash kunye ne-Bitcoin zezona ndlela zintathu ndizibona kakhulu, kwaye azitshintshi. Eli licala linyanisekileyo endiliqhubayo kubathengi, ekufikeleleni, kulawulo lotshintshiselwano kunye nokuba umntu ngamnye ubuyise ngantoni ngerandi.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Kwiminyaka elishumi ukusuka ku-2015 ukuya ku-2025 bobathathu bebebetha ukubamba imali yerandi, kodwa iiprofayili azinokwahluka kakhulu. Imali yedola ibuyiswe malunga nama-85 ukuya kwi-100% ngokwerandi ngokona kuguquguquka kuphantsi. I-offshore equity ngee-indices zehlabathi ibuyise malunga nama-550 ukuya kuma-650% ngokuguquguquka okuphakathi. I-Bitcoin ibuyile kwingingqi ye-60,000% kunye nokutsalwa okuqatha ngokwaneleyo ukugungqisa nabani na ongakhange enze isigqibo kwangaphambili sokubamba. Impendulo ethembekileyo ayifane ibenye kwezithathu. Ngumxube olingana nento onokuyibamba kunyaka ombi. Amanani aqikelelweyo kunye nomxholo kuphela, kwaye ukusebenza kwangaphambili asikho isikhokelo kwikamva.
Irandi yenza umsebenzi onzima apha. Isuke kwi-R14 yaya kwidola ekupheleni kuka-2019 yaya kutsho kwi-R18.70 kwiminyaka emihlanu emva koko, kunye neshumi elinesibini leminyaka endalibekayo. ukuba i-70% yesilayidi serandi ithetha ntoni kwiBitcoin sisizathu sokuba i-asethi yemali enzima inokunyuka ngokwemiqathango yerandi ngelixa ingenzi nto ngokwayo. Yonke inketho engezantsi iyinxalenye yorhwebo lwemali, yamkelwe okanye hayi.
I-offshore equity: umlinganiselo omiselweyo
I-offshore equity yeyona ndlela abona batyali-mali baseMzantsi Afrika abanamava abasele beyazi, ngesiqhelo ngokutyhileka kwisalathiso sehlabathi kunokuchola imfuyo. Ihloniphekile, iqondwa kakuhle kwaye kulula ukuyifikelela. Umtyali-zimali walapha ekhaya angabamba iinkampani zehlabathi ngokusebenzisa ingxowa-mali edwelisiweyo kwi-Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) ngaphandle kokuvula i-akhawunti yemali yangaphandle, okanye asuse inkunzi ngqo kude nonxweme phantsi kwesibonelelo sonyaka sotyalo-mali lwangaphandle, okwangoku i-R10 yezigidi kunye ne-R1 yesigidi sesibonelelo sokukhetha ngonyaka. Kubantu abaninzi loo siling ayibophelelanga. Ngesandla esineebhalansi ezinkulu, iyenzeka, kwaye seso sizathu sokuba isibonelelo se-offshore kunye neBitcoin ziphele kwincoko yokucwangcisa enye rhoqo kunokuba unokulindela, inqaku endilithatha ngakumbi indlela isibonelelo se-offshore kunye neBitcoin zidibana ngayo.
Ngokwerandi ukusuka ku-2015 ukuya ku-2025 isalathisi esibanzi sehlabathi jikelele sibuyele kwindawo emalunga nama-550 ukuya kuma-650%, kunye nokusebenza okuqinileyo kwedola okunyuswe ngokuhla kwerandi. Sisiphumo esihle eso kwaye andinamdla wokuthetha nabani na. Izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo ziyinxalenye yeepotfoliyo ezinobuzaza.
Isiqinisekiso esinyanisekileyo lunxulumano. Kwingxaki yokwenyani yehlabathi, izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo zithande ukuwa ecaleni kwayo yonke enye into, esusa iyantlukwano kanye xa ububala kuyo. Kukho isilumkiso esithe cwaka kwakhona. Uphando lweziko ndingqiyame kumanqaku okuba izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo ngoku zirhweba kuqingqo-maxabiso olunyuswe ngokwembali, ngomlinganiselo ohlengahlengisiweyo wexabiso ukuya kwingeniso kumanqanaba athe, kwixesha elidlulileyo, andulela imbuyekezo engaphantsi komndilili kule minyaka ilishumi ilandelayo. Akukho nanye kuloo nto eyenza izabelo zezabelo zibe yimpazamo. Yenza iminyaka elishumi eyomeleleyo emva kwethu isithembiso esibi malunga neshumi leminyaka ezayo.
Ndandinomthengi eGeorge owayeneshishini elincinci lokuvelisa kwaye wayenze yonke into eyayibuzwa yincwadi. Ingxowa-mali kaxakeka, i-unit trust ye-offshore, iflethi yokurenta, iqashiso. Into angazange ayenze kukubuza ukuba yintoni ekhuseleke kulo lonke ulwakhiwo, kwaye impendulo yayingaphantsi kunendlela awayecinga ngayo, kuba ngoMatshi ka-2020 uloyiko lwengxowa-mali yakhe engaselunxwemeni kunye nezabelo zakhe zasekhaya zawa kwakuloo veki. Ukwahluka kwiinkampani zonke akufani nokwahlukahlukana kumngcipheko owawumkhathaza, eyayiyimali kunye nenkqubo yemali ephantsi kwayo. Leyo yingxaki eyahlukileyo kwaye idinga isixhobo esahlukileyo.
Imali ye-USD: ilula, izinzile kwaye iyancipha ngokuzolileyo
Ukubamba iidola yeyona nto icacileyo ekhoyo. Ubambe iidola, irandi iyancipha, ixabiso lerandi lendawo oyibambileyo liyenyuka, kwaye akukho mngcipheko wotyalo-mali ngaphaya kwemali yokuzihambisa ngokwayo. Ukuyimisela kuthetha i-akhawunti yemali yangaphandle enebhanki yasekuhlaleni okanye i-akhawunti ye-offshore, ezindlela ezimbalwa ngaphezu kwediphozithi yasekhaya kodwa akukho nto yangaphandle.
Ngokwerandi kule minyaka ilishumi inye imo yemali yedola ibuye malunga ne-85 ukuya kwi-100%, phantse yonke intshukumo yemali esulungekileyo njengoko irandi itshayile xa ithelekiswa nedola, isivuno semalike yemali songeza isixa esincinci ngaphezulu. Ukuthembeka, idrama, idrama ephantsi.
Emva koko kuza into yokubambisa ekungekho mntu uyithengisayo. Imali yedola asiyoasethi yokukhula. Ilinganiswe ngeedola zokwenyani, emva kokunyuka kwamaxabiso eMelika, abanini bemali baphulukene namandla okuthenga kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kuba iireyithi zase-US azikhange zihlale zihambelana namaxabiso. Ingongoma ayikho yendawo. Imali yayo nayiphi na incasa iqinisekisiwe ukuba iza kulahlekelwa lixabiso lokwenyani xa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kungaphezulu kwenzala eyifumanayo, eyona ngxoxo iyonke endiyibekayo. kwenzeka ntoni kugcino lwakho. Iidola zilungisa ingxaki yerandi. Abayilungisi ingxaki yemali.
Ke phatha imali yedola njengoko iyiyo. Ivenkile ezinzileyo yenkunzi yexesha elikufutshane kunye nomthombo wobutyebi, hayi isithuthi sokudibanisa ubutyebi kwiminyaka elishumi.
I-Bitcoin: imbuyekezo ephezulu, kunye neyona nto inzima ukubamba
I-Bitcoin yeyona intsha kwezi zintathu kwaye yeyona isoloko igxothwa phambi kokuba ithelekiswe ngokufanelekileyo. Ithengwe ngerandi ngomnikezeli wasekhaya onelayisensi ayifuni akhawunti yemali yangaphandle kwaye akukho SARB imvume yokuthenga ngokwayo, kuba oko kuthenga kuthathwa njengentengiselwano yasekhaya. I-FICA yesiqhelo kunye neetshekhi ezichasene nokuthutyeleziswa kwemali ziyasebenza kwaye yonke into echithwayo ihlala irhafiswa kwi-SARS, kodwa akukho sibonelelo sonyaka sotyalo-mali lwangaphandle esitya ukuthengwa kwerandi yasekhaya ngendlela ekhoyo yokuhambisa imali kude nonxweme. Kufikelelo koomatshini kuphela ihleli kudidi olwahlukileyo kwamanye amabini.
Ngokwerandi ukusuka ku-2015 ukuya ku-2025 i-Bitcoin ibuyile kwingingqi ye-60,000%, ibeka ixabiso layo ledola phezu kokuhla kwerandi ngexesha elifanayo, ukukhukuliseka kwemali efanayo ndithelekisa kwiiklasi ze-asethi kwi. I-Bitcoin ichasene ne-JSE ngokuchasene nepropati. Inani likude kakhulu ngaphandle kwamava aqhelekileyo kangangokuba abantu abaninzi bathatha itypo. Ayisiyo typo, kwaye iza nesilumkiso esiprintwe kwifonti yobukhulu obufanayo: ukuguquguquka okuthe kwayivelisa kuyamangalisa nako. I-Bitcoin ifumene ubunzima bokutsalwa kwe-76% ngo-2014 kunye ne-57% ngo-2018, kunye nezinye ezininzi ziwela ngaphaya kwesiqingatha sexabiso layo, kwaye inani leminyaka elishumi lelomtyali-mali oye wahlala yonke enye ngaphandle kokuthengisa. Nabani na owayethengisa ebusika wayengayifumani.
Nantsi into enika iBitcoin ibango akukho namnye onokulingana. Kuya kubakho kuphela i-21 yezigidi zemali, i-cap enyanzeliswayo kungekhona ngesithembiso sebhanki ephakathi kodwa ngamashumi amawaka eendawo ezizimeleyo eziqhuba i-software, nayiphi na enye ekhatywayo utshintsho lomgaqo ngokuzenzekelayo kwaye ngaphandle kwesibheno. Ngaphezulu kwe-90% yolo nikezelo sele lukhutshiwe, kwishedyuli ethatha isiqingatha rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine kwaye akukho mntu uphendulayo. Ngokuchasene nerandi esibonelelo saso sikhula nanini na xa urhulumente efumanisa ukuba kufanelekile, loo siling yeyona ndawo iyonke.
Umfanekiso wolawulo lotshintshiselwano ufanele ukuba uchazwe ngokucacileyo, kuba kulapho abantu baba novalo khona. Ukuthenga nokubamba i-Bitcoin ngokwerandi ekuhlaleni kucocekile kwaye akufuni kusayinwa kwe-SARB. Ukuhambisa i-Bitcoin ngaphaya komda, ukuyithumela kude nonxweme okanye ukuyifumana evela phesheya, iwela phantsi kwemithetho ye-capital flow eqiniswe ngo-2025 kunye no-2026 kwaye iphathwa kwinqanaba elifanayo njengentengiselwano efanayo yotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle. Kumtyali-mali oqhelekileyo owakha indawo yendawo, akukho nanye elumayo. Nabani na onomsebenzi wokwenyani wokuwela umda, kufanelekile ukuqonda imithetho ethile ngaphambi kokwenza utshintshiselwano kunasemva.
Isishwankathelo esisecaleni
Bobathathu babethe imali yerandi kule minyaka ilishumi. Ingxabano imalunga nokumila kokusebenza okungaphaya, hayi ukuba kwenzekile.
Imali yedola inike olona khuselo luzinzileyo, olufikelelekayo, ngokuguquguquka okuphantsi kunye nembuyekezo ephantsi. I-offshore equity inike ukukhula olomeleleyo ixesha elide ekuguquguqukeni okuphakathi kwaye ihlala ilolona khetho luqhelekileyo kubatyali-mali basekhaya. I-Bitcoin inike eyona mbuyekezo iphezulu kakhulu, ngowona mgangatho uphezulu wokuguquguquka, kunye neyona rekhodi imfutshane kwezi zintathu. Yintoni i-Bitcoin yongeza ukuba akukho namnye kwabanye abanako ukubonelelwa akukho gunya lemali linokwandisa, luhlobo olwahlukileyo lokukhusela ekubeni ubenemali eyahlukileyo okanye ibhasikidi yeenkampani.
Sicinga ngazo zontathu kunye
Isikhundla sokukhusela ummi waseMzantsi Afrika oxhalabileyo malunga nerandi phantse angaze akhethe enye kwezi kwaye angahoyi ezinye. Kukubamba indibaniselwano ehambelana nenkangeleko yomngcipheko okhe wacinga ngayo, kunokuba uyizuze njengelifa ngokungagqibekanga. Imali yedola ithwala ubunganga bamanzi kunye nozinzo. I-Offshore equity ithwala ukukhula kwexesha elide kwindawo eguquguqukayo uninzi lwabantu olunokuthi lube nesisu. I-Bitcoin ithwala imbuyekezo yembali ephezulu kunye nepropathi yesibonelelo esisisigxina, ngexabiso kwi-nerve enokuthi kuphela ixabiso.
Indlela endiyila ngayo ingxubevange nabathengi kukutshatisa i-asethi nganye nomsebenzi kunokuba nesimo sengqondo. Imali enokuthi isetyenziswe kwiminyaka emithathu ayinashishini eBitcoin kwaye mhlawumbi ayikho kwizabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo, ngoko ke ihleli kwimali yedola apho irandi yerandi isebenza ngaphandle kokutsalwa. Imali ebekelwe bucala ishumi leminyaka inokuthwala umngcipheko ongaphezulu ngokutshintshiselana nokukhula okuthe chatha, elilikhaya lendalo leequity slice kwaye, ubukhulu ngobunono, kwiBitcoin. I-Bitcoin ngokukodwa ibambe i-horizon ende okanye ayiyonto, kwaye ndisebenza kubuncinci bembonakalo yeminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwelishumi kuyo yonke irandi yayo. Impazamo endiyibonayo rhoqo ayikuko ukuba neBitcoin encinci kakhulu. Iphethe isixa esifanelekileyo kodwa ixhasa ngemali ethe yafuneka kunyaka ozayo, emva koko ithengise ngokuwa kwaye ibize i-asethi ingxaki.
Ngokwenza oko kuthetha ukuqala kancinci kwaye uzinzile kunokufikelela kwinani. Ukuqokelelwa kwe-R1,000 ngenyanga kwakha isikhundla ngaphandle kokufuna ixesha lakho nantoni na, ukuzigcina kuqalisa ukuba nengqiqo xa ukubamba kufanelekile ukukhuselwa, kwaye ukuthenga kube kanye ngokobungakanani kufanela nabani na osusa isixa semali. Isakhiwo sibala ngaphantsi ekuqaleni kunoqeqesho lokubamba ubusika bokuqala onamava njengomnini kunokuba umbonisi.
Umsebenzi weziko wokulinganisa uluncedo ngakumbi kunezimvo ezininzi, kuquka nezam. Uphando lwe-asethi yedijithali yeFidelity yafumanisa ukuba ukongeza nakwi-Bitcoin encinci kwipotifoliyo ye-60/40 yaphucula imbuyekezo yayo yomngcipheko, kunye nenzuzo ebukhali efika phakathi kwe-1% kunye ne-3% yobunzima, ngelixa i-portfolio ye-drawdown embi kakhulu ishukunyiswa. Ulungelelwaniso oluphantsi kunye nezinye izinto eziseleyo kunye nolungelelwaniso lonyaka ngokutsha lwenze umsebenzi wokuqulatha, ngokuzolileyo wathengisa ophumeleleyo ukubuyisela ekujoliswe kuko kunye nokuvuna ukuguquguquka endaweni yokohlwaywa yiyo.
Ingakanani kwisigqibo ngasinye akukho nqaku linokukwenzela.
Into elungiswa yirekhodi ngumthwalo wobungqina. Kangangeminyaka kucingwa ukuba ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kwenza ukuba ibeyintelekelelo kakhulu kwipotfoliyo enzulu, kwaye ulwabiwo oluyiqanda aludingi khuselo. Kumanani angawo, kulo lonke ixesha lokubamba elizinzileyo, loo ngcinga ngoku yeyona ithwele ubunzima. Ukushiya i-Bitcoin ngaphandle ngokupheleleyo sisikhundla ekufuneka kuxoxwe ngaso, singacingelwa nje, kunye nomgcini wemali yebenchmark evuzayo yexabiso unyaka nonyaka ingxabano inzima ukuphumelela kunokuba bekuya kuba phantse naphi na.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
I-Bitcoin ithelekiswa njani ne-offshore equity njengothango lwerandi?
Zombini zisebenzisa umsebenzi weheji yerandi kodwa zinenkangeleko zomngcipheko ezahluke kakhulu. I-offshore equity (S&P 500) ibuye malunga ne-550 ukuya kwi-650% ngokwemiqathango yerandi ngo-2015 ukuya ku-2025, kunye nokuguquguquka okuphakathi. I-Bitcoin ibuyele malunga ne-60,000% ngexesha elifanayo, kunye nokuguquguquka okuphezulu kakhulu kunye nokutsalwa okuphindaphindiweyo okudlula i-50%. I-offshore equity lolona khetho lusekwe ngakumbi; I-Bitcoin isebenze ngokungaphaya komda omkhulu kuyo nayiphi na iminyaka emihlanu okanye ixesha elide lokubamba kodwa ifuna unyamezelo olukhulu ekuguqukeni kwamaxabiso. Kuninzi lwabatyali-mali baseMzantsi Afrika, bobabini banendima kubungakanani obahlukeneyo bolwabiwo.
Ngaba ndifuna imvume ye-SARB ukuze ndithenge i-Bitcoin eMzantsi Afrika?
Hayi. I-Bitcoin ethengwe ngerandi ngomnikezeli waseMzantsi Afrika onelayisensi yasekhaya ayifuni mvume SARB okanye kusetyenziswe isibonelelo sonyaka sotyalo-mali lwangaphandle. Ukuthenga kuthathwa njengentengiselwano yemali yasekhaya. I-FICA eqhelekileyo kunye neemfuno ezichasene nokuthutyeleziswa kwemali ziyasebenza, kwaye konke ukulahlwa kweBitcoin kuhlala kuhlawulelwa irhafu ngeenjongo zeSARS. Iintengiselwano ezinqamlezileyo zeBitcoin, ukuyithumela kude nonxweme okanye ukuyifumana kumazwe aphesheya, ziphathwa njengemali yokuqukuqela imali kwaye ziwela phantsi kweSARB imithetho yolawulo lotshintshiselwano.
Ngaba idola yiheji elungileyo yerandi kubemi boMzantsi Afrika?
Imali yedola yeyona ndlela ilula kunye neyona ndlela engamanzi yokhuseleko lwerandi. Njengoko irandi isiya isihla, ixabiso lerandi ledollar oyiphetheyo liyenyuka ngokomlinganiselo, kungekho mngcipheko wotyalo-mali ngaphaya kokuhamba kwemali. Ibuyise malunga nama-85 ukuya kwi-100% ngokwerandi kunyaka ka-2015 ukuya kowama-2025. Isithintelo kukuba asiyo-asethi yokukhula kwaye iphulukene namandla okuthenga okwenene xa iireyithi zase-US zisilela ukuhambisana nokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Ifanele inkunzi efunekayo kwixesha elikufuphi, hayi ukukhula kwexesha elide.
Ndingabamba zontathu ngaxeshanye?
Ewe, kwaye kuninzi lwabatyali-mali baseMzantsi Afrika abanolondolozo olunentsingiselo, indibaniselwano ifaneleke ngakumbi kunokugxila kuyo nayiphi na iheji enye yerandi. Indlela eqhelekileyo kukusebenzisa imali eyidola kwinkunzi efunekayo kwisithuba seminyaka emithathu, i-offshore equity njengeyona nto iphambili yokukhula kwexesha elide, kunye neBitcoin njengendawo encinci kodwa enentsingiselo elingana nento onokuyibamba ngokutsalwa kakhulu ngaphandle kokuthengisa. Book a call ukuxoxa ngomxube wakho.
Yenza umxube wakho, emva koko ulinganise iBitcoin ngengqiqo
I-SimplB inceda abantu baseMzantsi Afrika bathenge, bakhusele kwaye bamise i-Bitcoin ngokuthobelayo, njengoMmeli woBugqwetha we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukisha umnxeba we-rand hedge