Ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kumxholo

Inani ngokwalo likuxelela phantse nto. Ukungaguquguquki kweBitcoin kujongeka kuyoyikeka xa uwedwa kwaye ungaphawuleki ngalo mzuzu uyibeke ecaleni kwe-asethi ekhuphisana nayo. Ukubanjwa ngokuchasene ne-equity, igolide kunye nerandi, kwaye ifundwe kwiminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu kuneentsuku ezilishumi elinesihlanu, iijingi ziyeka ukubonakala ngathi zisisiphene kwaye ziqala ukubonakala njengexabiso lokungena kwinto engekagqibi ukuyixabisa.

Bendibeka abemi boMzantsi Afrika kwiBitcoin ukusukela ngo-2016, kwaye inkcaso eguquguqukayo yeyona ifika kuqala phantse kuyo yonke incoko. Ifanele intlonipho kunokuba ixutywe, kuba umntu oyiphakamisayo udla ngokuchaneka malunga nenani kwaye ayilunganga kuphela malunga nokuba inani lithetha ntoni na. Ngoko ke mandifake inombolo kwinkampani ekuyo.

Xa kuthelekiswa nantoni, kanye

I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso ngumlinganiselo ohambelanayo ozenza ngathi uyinto epheleleyo. Ukuthi i-asethi iyaguquguquka ngaphandle kokuyithelekisa kufana nokuthi inqwelo-mafutha iyakhawuleza ungakhange uyichase nantoni na. Ekuqaleni kuka-2026, kubunzulu bolungiso olunzima, ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin konyaka omnye kwahlala malunga ne-36%, eyayingaphantsi kuneqela le-mega-cap yesitokhwe seteknoloji ehleli ngaphakathi kwiyunithi ye-unit trust ye-offshore yaseMzantsi Afrika. Kwakukho i-stretch ngo-2023 xa ixabiso le-Bitcoin lihamba lingaphantsi kwe-S&P 500 i-cap-cap index kunye nengaphantsi kwegolide. Akukho mntu wabhala isihloko malunga naloo nto, kuba iveki ezimbini ezolileyo ayithengisi uloyiko.

Igolide luthelekiso olunyanisekileyo, nangona kunjalo, kuba igolide yeyona asethi iBitcoin idla ngokutyholwa ngokusilela ukuxelisa. Umlinganiselo olinganisiweyo phakathi kwezi zibini ubalisa ibali. Ngexesha elizolileyo lalo mjikelo umlinganiselo wokuguquguquka kweBitcoin ukuya kwigolide ecinezelwe ukuya kuqikelelo lwe-1.5, imbali ephantsi. Leyo yi-asethi encinci eziphatha kancinci njengetikiti lelotho kwaye ngakumbi njengevenkile ekhulayo enexabiso. Ngokuphindwe kabini ukutsiba kwegolide kumlinganiso ombi, inqanaba kunye nawo kokulungileyo, kwaye umkhwa ukwicala elinye.

Irandi yeyakolu thelekiso nayo, kwaye ayifane imenywe. Ndibeke i-arithmetic epheleleyo ukuba i-70% yerandi ithetha ukuthini xa ithelekiswa nedola kwiBitcoin, kodwa inguqulelo emfutshane yeyokuba uzinzo lwerandi yinkohliso nje. Ayilibali i-10% ngosuku. Ivuza nje, ngokungayekiyo, kwicala elingasoze lijike ixesha elide.

Iijingi ziya zisiba ncinci

Eyona nto iluncedo endinokuthi ndiyixelele umxhasi we-nervous kukuba i-Bitcoin izolile ngendlela enokulinganiswa, umjikelo-ngomjikelo, kwaye irekhodi alikho buqili xa ubeka imijikelo ukusuka ekuqaleni ukuya ekugqibeleni. Kwimarike yebhere ye-2015 i-Bitcoin yawa malunga ne-85% ukusuka phezulu. Ngo-2018 yehla malunga ne-84%. Ubusika be-crypto 2022 bawuthatha phantsi malunga ne-77,5%, ukusuka kufuphi ne-69,000 yeedola ukuya kwi-15,500 yeedola. Emva koko ulungiso luka-2025 ukuya ku-2026, oluye lwaziva lunobundlobongela kuye nabani na ophila ngalo, lwehla kumda omalunga ne-53%, ukusuka malunga ne-126,000 yeedola ukuya ngaphantsi kweedola ezingama-60,000. Umkhombe ngamnye ubunzulu kunowokugqibela. Eso ayisosithembiso malunga nelandelayo, kwaye andinakuze ndiyinxibe njengomthetho wendalo, kodwa iingongoma ezine zedatha ezikhomba ngendlela efanayo yipatheni efanele ukuhlonishwa kunokungahoywa.

Amanani aguqukayo abalisa ibali elifanayo kwelinye i-engile. Ngexesha lokuwa kwe-2022, ukuguquguquka kweentsuku ezingamashumi alithoba kuqhube ngaphezu kwe-70. Ebunzulwini be-selloff yokuqala ye-2026 yahlala kufuphi ne-38, malunga nesiqingatha. Imakethi enzulu ifunxa izothuso ebezinokuphoswa kwigumbi lonke. Inkunzi eninzi, iinkampani ezininzi, iindawo ezininzi zokuthenga nokuthengisa, kwaye iindaba ezifanayo zihambisa ixabiso elingaphantsi kunangaphambili. Le yimathematika eqhelekileyo yemarike iya isiba nkulu, kwaye yenzeka kwigolide kumashumi eminyaka eyadlulayo xa phantse kungekho mntu ubukeleyo.

Akukho nanye kuloo nto eyenza ukukhwela kube lula.

Iyenza ikwazi ukusinda kuye nabani na oyiqondayo into ayibambayo kwaye kutheni, owona msebenzi uphela.

Igolide yenza oku nayo

Nabani na ophatha igolide njengendlela ezolileyo, yabantu abadala unenkumbulo emfutshane. Xa ihlabathi lawulahla umgangatho wegolide ekuqaleni kweminyaka yoo-1970 kwaye isinyithi savunyelwa ekugqibeleni ukuba sifumane ixabiso laso, igolide yahamba ngokukrazula kwaye emva koko yadilika eyayiza kwenza umnini weBitcoin wanamhlanje aqhwebe. Isuka kwixabiso elimiselweyo lasemthethweni ukuya kwintengiso yasendle, i-spiked, yaze yehla ngaphezu kwesiqingatha ukusuka kwincopho yayo kwiminyaka elandelayo. Iphinde yajinga ngamandla kwakhona ngo-2010, ityibilika malunga nama-45% ukusuka phezulu kowama-2011. Asisawaxeleli loo mabali kwakhona, kuba ukufunyanwa kwexabiso kwenzeka ngaphambi kokuba uninzi lwabatyali-mali banamhlanje bazalwe kwaye inkumbulo iye yatshintshwa ngokukhawuleza ngexesha.

I-Bitcoin iphila ngenkqubo efanayo, ixinzelelwe nje kwaye isesidlangalaleni. I-asethi eyimali ebingekho phambi kuka-2009 ayinaxabiso lizinzisiweyo elifanelekileyo, ngoko ke imarike ixoxa ngayo ngokuvakalayo nangokuqhubekayo, kwaye loo ngxoxo ibonakala njengetshati ejijekileyo. I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso sisandi saloo ngxabano. Njengoko iminyaka ye-asethi kunye nehlabathi liyibambile, ingxabano iyazola, kanye njengoko yenzayo kwigolide emva kokuba uthuli lwe-1970s luzinzile.

I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso ayikho ingozi

Lo ngumahluko isichaso esidla ngokungawuphosiyo. I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso yi-statistical dispersion, ububanzi be-swing malunga nomndilili, kwaye akukho nto. Umngcipheko yilahleko esisigxina yenkunzi yakho. Ayizozithethantonye kwaye zibaphatha njengenye indlela abantu abalumke abathetha ngayo kwi-asethi engalunganga. Ndingena nzulu kwiinkcazo kunye nezibalo oko kuthetha ukuthini ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin.

Cinga 5 February 2026, enye ngokukhawuleza-usuku olunye iwela kwimbali Bitcoin, intshukumo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ngaphandle kuluhlu eqhelekileyo ukuba ngokwenqanaba-of-utshintsho isiseko ebhalisiweyo ezitenxileyo ezidlulileyo ezintandathu umgangatho. Ukoyikeka kwitshathi. Ukanti kuso sonke isiqendu uthungelwano lwaqhubeka luvelisa iibhloko rhoqo ngemizuzu elishumi, ukuhlaliswana akuzange kumiswe, kunye nemibhobho ehambisa iBitcoin kwihlabathi jikelele iqhubekile kanye ngendlela eyilwe ngayo. Ixabiso liye laxubana. Into ngokwayo ayizange iphule. Lo msantsa, phakathi kwexabiso elishukumayo kunye ne-asethi engaphumeleliyo, ngumahluko opheleleyo phakathi kokuguquguquka kunye nomngcipheko, kwaye imali eqhelekileyo igcina ukudilika kwezi zimbini zibe ligama elinye eloyikisayo.

I-akhawunti yogcino lwerandi iyayijika ingxaki. Ibhalansi yayo ayishukumi, ke ifumana amanqaku amahle ekuguquguqukeni. Kodwa ithwele ingozi ethe cwaka engazange ibonakale kwisiteyitimenti, kuba amandla okuthenga aphuma kuyo minyaka le ngelixa inani elikwisikrini lihlala liziqinisekisa. Ukuguquguquka okuphantsi, ilahleko yangempela. I-Bitcoin ibisoloko ingumfanekiso wesipili: ukuguquguquka okuphezulu, kwaye akukho mbuyekezo ingalunganga kulo naliphi na ixesha leminyaka emine kwimbali yayo ukuza kuthi ga ngoku. Ndikhupha loo rekhodi ngokufanelekileyo kutheni ukubamba ixesha elide kuye kwaba isicwangciso esithembekileyo seBitcoin.

Uloyiko alubikho mntu

Nantsi indawo isilumkiso esishiya ngaphandle. Iijingi khange zibe macala. Kuyo yonke le minyaka ilishumi elinesihlanu idlulileyo iBitcoin ibekwe phakathi kwezona mpahla ziqhuba kakuhle umtyali-mali oqhelekileyo anokufikelela kuzo. Oko kusebenza ngaphandle kokwahlulwa kukuguquguquka, nangona kunjalo. I-asethi engenako ukuhla nge-50% ayinako ukunyuka kumakhulu aliqela eepesenti nokuba, kuba zombini ziyafana kumgangatho wentengiso wento ongekagqibi ukuyixabisa.

Iingcali ezithengisa oku ukuze ziphile zivakalisa i-asymmetry kwixabiso lokukhusela. Kwimarike yeenketho zexesha elide, abarhwebi ngalo mjikelo ngamanye amaxesha baye bahlawula ngaphezulu ilungelo lokuba neBitcoin ephezulu kune-inshurensi echasene nayo. Leyo yinto entle, leyo ithi imali ekrelekrele ithatha ukothuka okukhulu njengoko kunokwenzeka ukuba uhlale kwicala elingaphezulu kunokwehla. Luphawu olungaqhelekanga lokwenyani, kuba uninzi lwezinye ii-asethi zithwele icala elahlukileyo, apho uloyiko lwengozi luxabisa ngaphezulu kunalo naliphi na ithemba lokunyibilika.

Ndiyakulumkela ukungqiyama kakhulu kuyo nayiphi na kwezi. Iinguqu zokubeka iinketho, kwaye ukothuka okubi ngokwaneleyo kuguqula i-skew ngaphakathi kweveki. Kodwa iyayithoba inguqulelo eyonqenayo yengxoxo eguquguqukayo, leyo ithi cwaka ithatha yonke intshukumo enkulu kufuneka ihle. Irekhodi lithetha ngenye indlela, kwaye litsho ngokungaguquguqukiyo ngokwaneleyo ukuba andizukwakha iqhinga lokonga malunga nentelekelelo yokuba ujingi lukhe lwenzakalisa.

Kuthetha ukuthini oku kumlondolozi waseMzantsi Afrika

Abemi boMzantsi Afrika banendawo ethile eyimfama apha, kuba siqeqeshwe kwasekuzalweni ukuba siyiphathe njengeyona nto izinzileyo nerandi njengenye into yokungcakaza. Ngamanzi esiqubha kuwo. Kodwa imali ephulukene nexabiso layo elininzi xa ithelekiswa nedola kumashumi amabini eminyaka ayisosiseko esikhuselekileyo apho iBitcoin ikhangeleka ingenankathalo. Ngomnye wezikhundla ezinobungozi kwigumbi, enxibe isinxibo sobulumko kuba ukwehla kwayo kucotha kwaye inani layo alitsibi.

Ngoko umbuzo osebenzayo awukho ukuba i-Bitcoin iyaguquguquka. Kucacile ukuba, kwaye nabani na okuxelela ngenye indlela uthengisa into. Umbuzo ngowokuba loo nto iguquguqukayo luhlobo olutshabalalisa inkunzi okanye uhlobo okhwela ngalo ukuya kwimbuyekezo yokwenyani, kwaye impendulo enyanisekileyo ixhomekeke phantse ngokupheleleyo kwixesha lakho lokubamba kunye nomoya wakho. Yenza nokuba ingalunganga kwaye iijingi ziya kukwenzakalisa. Zilungise zombini kwaye ziba sisizathu sokuba isikhundla bekufanele sithathwe. Ukuba usalinganisela ukuba le yi-mania kune-asethi ekhulayo, ndisebenza ngayo ngokwahlukeneyo nokuba i-Bitcoin yiqamza.

Ndimisela izikhundla zabaxumi ukuze ndikhuphe ulwamvila lwexesha. Ukuthenga rhoqo ngenyanga ukusuka kwi-R1,000 ngenyanga kuthetha ukuba awuzubheja ngesiphumo sakho siphela ngexabiso losuku olunye. Ubuncinci beminyaka emihlanu ukuya kwelishumi i-horizon ikunika umjikelo wesiqingatha kunokuba umjikelo weendaba. Ukuzigcina ngokukhokelwayo ukusuka kwi-R10,000, kunye neVault yeempahla ezinkulu, kuthetha ukuba iinkozo zemali zezakho ngokwenyani ukuba uzibambe kwindawo yokutsalwa endaweni yokuhlala kwindawo onokuthi uphakuzele uzithengise. I-mechanics ibalulekile ngaphantsi kwe-mindset, kodwa yiyo eyenza ingqondo iphile kwisikrini esibomvu.

Ukuba ufuna ukucinga ngale nto ngokuchasene namanani akho endaweni yengxabano ngokubanzi, bhala umnxeba wesakhiwo seBitcoin kwaye siza kujonga apho ukuguquguquka kunceda khona nalapho kungakwenziyo.