Ngaba iBitcoin yiBubble? Oko Kuboniswa Bobona bungqina
Iqamza yi-asethi elixabiso layo liyehla lize lihlale liwile. Ngaloo vavanyo i-Bitcoin ayizange ibe enye. Iwile ngaphezulu kwe-80% kwizihlandlo ezine ezahlukeneyo kwaye ibuyele kumanqanaba amatsha rhoqo. I-Tulips ayizange iyenze loo nto. I-Dot-com stocks ayizange iyenze loo nto. Ukuchacha yingxoxo yonke, kwaye yinxalenye yegama elithi iqamza lenzelwe ukwenza ukuba ungahoyi.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Iqamza lokwenyani liyaphuma kwaye alibuyi, kuba into esisiseko yayingenaxabiso elihlala lihleli emva kokuba i-mania idlulile. I-Bitcoin ihlala ibuyela kumhlaba ophakamileyo emva kwengozi nganye, kwaye ngoku ikwenzile oko izihlandlo ezine kwiminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu. Uthungelwano lwayo luqhubeka lusebenza kuyo yonke imarike yeebhere, kwaye amaziko anzulu akhe izikhundla zokwenyani kunokuba abaleke. Ukuguquguquka lixabiso lokufumanisa ukuba yintoni i-asethi entsha eyimali, kungekhona ubungqina bokuba ayinaxabiso.
Bendisenza oku eMzantsi Afrika ukusukela ngo-2016, nto leyo ethetha ukuba ndihleli nabathengi kwizintlu ezimbini zezi ngozi ngexesha lokwenyani. Ukunyuka kwexabiso ngalinye kuzisa umbuzo ofanayo umva, ngokuqhelekileyo kumntu ofuna isizathu sokungajongi kufutshane. Ileyibhile iwenza loo msebenzi ngokucocekileyo. Ivumela umntu ukuba achithe i-asethi ngaphandle kokuyihlolisisa. Ngoko ke makhe ndiwuthathe ngokungathí sina umbuzo, kuba ufanelekile, kwaye emva koko uphendule ngerekhodi kunokuba i-reflex malunga ne-tulips.
Yintoni imbali yexabiso eneneni ibonakala ngathi
Qala ngeengozi, kuba ezo ziyinxalenye ekhunjulwa ngumntu wonke. Ngo-2011 i-Bitcoin ibaleke yaya kutsho kwi-31 yeedola yaze yehla malunga ne-94% ukuya kwi-2 yeedola. Olo luhlobo lokwehla oluphelisa uninzi lwee-asethi ngokulungileyo. Ayizange iphele le. Ekupheleni kuka-2013 ixabiso lalifikelele kwi-$1,242, emva koko lehla laya kufutshane ne-$160 kule minyaka mibini ilandelayo. NgoDisemba 2017 ichukumise i-$ 19,783 ngaphambi kokusila phantsi malunga ne-$ 3,200 nge-2018. NgoNovemba 2021 yenza i-$ 69,000, emva koko ikhuphe i-15,500 yeedola ekupheleni kwe-2022. Amaxesha amane ahlukeneyo umtyali-mali othenge i-toprate ebukele kakhulu ephepheni yemali yabo.
Ngoku beka i-recoveries ecaleni kweengozi. Loo 3,200 yeedola ephantsi ngo-2018, emazantsi emarike yebhere ekhohlakeleyo eyayinabantu ababhala i-Bitcoin ye-obituary kulo lonke iphepha leshishini, ihleli kakuhle ngaphezu kwe-1,242 yeedola eyayiyeyona nto iphambili kwiminyaka emine ngaphambili. Umgangatho womjikelo omnye wawuphezulu kunesilingi yowokugqibela. I-2022 ephantsi ye-15,500 yeedola yeyona nto ithembekileyo ngaphandle kwalo mgaqo, ukuntywila nje phantsi kwencopho ye-2017 ye-19,783 yeedola, kwaye ndiyikhankanya ngokuchanekileyo kuba umntu ophikisana noku ngokholo oluhle ubiza okungafaniyo kunokukufihla. Ekuqaleni kuka-2024 i-Bitcoin yaphuka ngaphaya kweedola ezingama-73,000, kwaye ekuqaleni kuka-2025 yayicime i-100,000 yeedola okokuqala.
Incopho yokunyuka, imikhombe iyenyuka, ngaphezulu kweminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu kunye nemijikelo emine epheleleyo. Ayisiyiyo le nto iqamza eliveleyo lijongeka kwitshati.
Kukho isingqisho phantsi kwezo ntsuku ekulula ukusiphosa de umntu akhombe kuyo. Phantse rhoqo emva kweminyaka emine isantya esenziwa ngayo iingqekembe ezintsha sinqunyulwa sibe sisiqingatha, kwaye iincopho ezinkulu ziye zadityaniswa unyaka okanye emva koko emva kwesiqingatha ngasinye sezo nxalenye. Andisoze ndixelele umxhasi ukuba umjikelo ngumthetho wendalo abanokubeka iwotshi ngawo. Ibambe amaxesha amane, okwaneleyo ukuba uqaphele kwaye akwanelanga ukubheja indlu. Eyona nto ibalulekileyo apha yimilo eyivelisayo: ukubaleka okubukhali, ukwehla okunzulu, umgangatho ophezulu, ukuphinda.
Kutheni amaqamza okwenyani engakwazi ukwenza oku
Uvavanyo lweqamza alikho ukuba ixabiso lehla kangakanani na. Yinto esindayo ekwindla.
Xa amaxabiso e-tulip e-Dutch ehla ngo-1637, iibhalbhu zabuyela ekubeni ziintyatyambo ezixabisa iisenti ezimbalwa, kuba intyatyambo yayiyeyona nto yayikhe yaba yiyo kanye xa umkhuhlane oqikelelwayo waqhekeka. Xa i-Pets.com kunye ne-Webvan baya kwi-zero malunga ne-2000, baya ku-zero kwaye bahlala khona, kuba inkampani evuthayo imali engenayo indlela yokuzuza akukho nto iseleyo yokubaluleka xa imarike iyeka ukukholelwa ibali.
Uphawu oluchazayo lweqamza lokwenyani lelokuba into engaphantsi kwexabiso ijika ingabi nanto. Susa i-mania kwaye akukho nto iseleyo yokubamba.
I-Bitcoin's ngaphantsi ayihambi kwimarike yebhere. Inethiwekhi yinkqubo yokuhlalisa kunye nesibonelelo esingenakwandiswa, kwaye ayikhathaleli ukuba ixabiso lenzani. Ngexesha elibi kakhulu lika-2018 kunye nelona libi kakhulu lika-2022, iibhloko zahlala zigrunjwa rhoqo ngemizuzu elishumi okanye kunjalo, ukuthengiselana kuye kwahlala kuzinzile, ileja yaqhubeka ihambela phambili. Akukho mntu wayicimayo ngenxa yokuba itshati yayikhangeleka imbi. Imfuno yemali engenako ukunyuswa okanye ukubanjwa ayipheli ngenxa yokuba umntu oqikelelayo okwenye indawo yexesha uye woyika.
Elungisa kwakhona ukuguquguquka ngokwayo. Into efundwa njengokuziphatha kweqamza ngokwenene lutyikityo lwento entsha ngokwenene ethengiweyo ukusuka ekuqaleni lihlabathi liphela ngaxeshanye. Akukho mzekelo we-asethi yedijithali enqongopheleyo ekufumaneni ixabiso layo kwiimarike ezivulekileyo, ngoko ke imakethi iyenza ngendlela ekuphela kwayo, ngokuvakalayo nasesidlangalaleni kunye noguquko olukhulu. Ndibhale malunga nokuba kutheni le nto iluphawu lwenkqubo yokufumanisa kunokuba isiphene oko kuthetha ukuthini ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin, kwaye kutheni iijingi zicutheka njengoko i-asethi ikhula Ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kumxholo. Inguqulelo emfutshane kukuba kwangethuba, iimarike ezibhityileyo zihamba ngobundlobongela, kwaye iimarike zokuqala zeBitcoin zazibhityile njengayo nayiphi na imbali.
Amaziko awazileqa ifashoni
Apha kulapho ithisisi yeqamza iba nzima.
Ekuqaleni kuka-2024 BlackRock, umphathi omkhulu we-asethi emhlabeni, wasungula indawo ye-Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Ukunyaniseka kuye kwaqhuba ishishini lokugcina impahla yedijithali ukususela ngo-2018. Isicwangciso, inkampani eyayibizwa ngokuba yi-MicroStrategy, iye yakha i-treasury yeenkozo ezingaphezu kwamakhulu amabini amawaka kwaye iququzelele ibhalansi yayo malunga nabo. Akukho nanye kwezi iifemu ezinembali yokufumba kwiimania eziqikelelwayo phezulu.
Ngamnye kubo uqhuba amaqela azinikeleyo asemngciphekweni anabasebenzi abaphelayo ukuba abakhathali. Abo bahlalutyi bajonga ngqo kwimbali efanayo yokutsalwa phantsi endisandula ukuhamba kuyo, i-94% efanayo kunye ne-80% ewela ukuba abagxeki balatha, kwaye bafikelela kwisigqibo esahlukileyo. Baphatha i-Bitcoin njenge-asethi yemali evelayo kunye nokusetyenziswa kokwenene ekugcineni inkunzi. Loo nto ayibenzi balunge, kwaye andinakuze ndinxibele umdla weziko njengobungqina. Kuthetha ukuba nabani na onyanzelisa ukuba oku kube liqamza ngoku kufuneka achaze ukuba kutheni iingcali zomngcipheko ezikumgangatho ophezulu kumaziko amaninzi alondolozayo kwezemali zisenza impazamo enye ebiza kakhulu ngaxeshanye. Oko kukuphakamisa okunzima kunokuba kuvakala.
Izikhokelo ezinengqiqo kuyo
Iindlela ezimbini zokujonga i-asethi zibambe ngcono kunebali leqamza, kwaye zihambelana nerekhodi kunokuba zilwe.
Eyokuqala kukuthathwa kwabantwana. ULyn Alden uchaza i-Bitcoin njengehamba ecaleni kwe-S-curve ende, ukusuka kubamkeli bokuqala ukuya kubatyali-mali abaqhelekileyo ukuya kumaziko kwaye, ngokunokwenzeka, ukuya koovimba abazimeleyo. Iqela ngalinye elitsha elifikayo lizisa inkunzi eninzi kunye neemarike ezinzulu, kunye neemarike ezinzulu zijingika kancinci. Ukungaguquguquki okusendle kwemijikelo yakuqala ibiyimali ebhityileyo etyhalwa ngapha nangapha liqaqobana labathathi-nxaxheba, yiyo loo nto u-2021 ebezolile kuno-2017 kwaye u-2017 ebezolile kuno-2013. Indlela yokuwela imijikelo ibhekiselele kuzinzo, hayi kude kuyo, into echaseneyo nenokuthi uyilindele kubuqhophololo obuphuma kubathengi abatsha.
Okwesibini kukunqongophala, kwaye iSaifedean Ammous iyibeka ngokucacileyo kuMgangatho weBitcoin. I-asethi enobonelelo olungaguqukiyo ngokwenene itsala imali eyinkunzi ephelelwe kwezinye iindawo yokuzimela. Yonke ivenkile ekhuphisana nayo yexabiso inokugrumba, iprinte okanye ikhuphe ngaphezulu kwayo xa ixabiso libaleka. Abaphuhlisi bepropati bayakha. Abasebenzi basezimayini bavula iishafti ezintsha. Iibhanki ezingundoqo zandisa unikezelo lwemali. I-Bitcoin ayinakuyenza loo nto, kuba i-cap yezigidi ezingamashumi amabini ananye zeenkozo inyanzeliswa yi-node nganye epheleleyo eqhuba isofthiwe kwaye akukho xabiso lemfuno linokuthetha ngayo ekuveliseni ngaphezulu. Xa inkunzi ikhangela into engayi kungcungcuthekiswa ngaphantsi kwayo, unikezelo oluzinzileyo ngokwenene lutsala isabelo ngaphandle kwayo yonke imilinganiselo yobungakanani bayo. Olo tsalo asilo mania. Yi-arithmetic.
Kummi waseMzantsi Afrika ingxoxo iyinto engaphaya kwengqondo kunokuba injalo nakubani na omnye umntu. I-Reserve Bank ijolise ekugcineni izinga lokunyuka kwamaxabiso liphakathi kwe-3 ne-6%, nto leyo yindlela echubekileyo yokutsho ukuba irandi yenzelwe ukuba iphulukane namandla ayo okuthenga rhoqo ngonyaka ngenjongo, kwaye yenze ngaphezulu kancinci ebomini bam. Irandi isuke kwi-R14 yaya kwidola ekupheleni kuka-2019 yaya kutsho kwi-R18.70 kwiminyaka emihlanu emva koko. Umntu waseGeorge okanye eJoburg obukele eso silayidi akakhethi phakathi kwemincili nokhuseleko.
Bakhetha ukhukuliseko ukuba balwamkele.
Cwangcisa imali eyakhelweyo ukuba buthathaka ngokuchasene ne-asethi eyakhiwe ukuze ingakhuli, kwaye ichaza isiphumo njengeqamza liphosakele eyona nto yenzekayo. Seso sizathu le nto ndihlala ndiqhubela abathengi kude ekurhwebeni iijingi kunye nokubamba imijikelo, imeko endiyenzayo ngokupheleleyo. kutheni ukubamba ixesha elide lelona qhinga lithembekileyo leBitcoin.
Akukho nanye kwezi zinto ithetha ukuba ixabiso alinakuphinda liwe nzima. Iza ku. Oko kuthetha ukuba ukuwa kanzima akufani nokuphuma, kwaye iminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu edlulileyo izoba umgca ocacileyo phakathi kwezi zibini.
Abanyanisekileyo basengozini
Ukuthatha umbuzo nzulu kuthetha ukuba ungawagungqisi iingozi zokwenyani ekugqibeleni. I-Bitcoin isenokusilela. Isiphene esibalulekileyo kwiprotocol, ikhefu kwi-cryptography esisiseko enokuthi uphuculo alukwazi ukuphendula ngexesha, okanye ulungelelwaniso lolawulo lwehlabathi olwenze ukuba kube nzima ukuthengiselana luya kwenza umonakalo wokwenyani, kwaye andizukwenza ngathi ngenye indlela ukuvala ukuthengisa. Into endiya kuyithetha kukuba inethiwekhi iqhube ngokuqhubekayo ukususela ngoJanuwari 2009 ngaphandle kwalabo abaphulayo, kwaye irekhodi leminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu phantsi kohlaselo loluntu rhoqo libubungqina, nokuba akusiyo isiqinisekiso.
Owona mgibe uxhaphakileyo awuyondlela yomthetho. Ngumntu oyibambileyo. Ibali leqamza lenza owona msebenzi walo umbi hayi ngokukholisa abantu ukuba iBitcoin ayinaxabiso kodwa ngokubenza bathenge phezulu kwiadrenaline kwaye bathengise umzantsi ngokuzisola, eyipatheni endiyikhuphela kuyo. uloyiko lokuphoswa kwiBitcoin. I-asethi ayizange iwe ngokusisigxina. Uninzi lwabatyali-zimali ngabanye baye, ngokuphazama umjikelo weminyaka emine kwiskimu sokutyeba ngokukhawuleza. Umsebenzi wam ubukhulu becala kukunqanda loo nto ingabinguwe.
Fumana indawo yakho yeBitcoin ngokufanelekileyo.
I-SimplB inceda abantu baseMzantsi Afrika bathenge, bakhusele kwaye bamise i-Bitcoin ngokuthobelayo, njengoMmeli woBugqwetha we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Thetha nomjikelo kunye namImibuzo ebuzwa qho
Ngaba i-Bitcoin ilahlekelwe yi-80% yexabiso layo?
Ewe, amaxesha amane ahlukeneyo, kwaye enye yezo zithintelo yayisondele kuma-94%. Into eyahlula i-Bitcoin kwi-bubble eqhelekileyo yinto eyenzekayo emva koko. Ngalo lonke ixesha, ixabiso libuyele kwindawo entsha yexesha lonke. I-Tulips, i-dot-com stocks kunye ne-subprime securities ayizange ibuyele, kuba kwakungekho nto ishiywe phantsi kwayo emva kokuba i-mania idlulile. Ukubuyisela inqaku ledatha eligqibayo.
Kutheni i-Bitcoin iguquguquka kangaka ukuba ayiloqamza?
Ngenxa yokuba i-asethi entsha yokwenyani ixatyiswa kwasekuqaleni ziimarike zehlabathi, kwaye iimarike ezibhityileyo zakuqala zijinga ngamandla. Njengoko imali eninzi ifika kwaye abanini baninzi behleli bethe iminyaka, ujingi luya kuncipha. I-Bitcoin yahamba ngobundlobongela obuncinci ngo-2021 kunokuba i-2017, kwaye ingaphantsi kwe-2017 kune-2013. Isalathiso ekuhambeni kwexesha sibhekiselele kuzinzo, kungekhona kude nayo, into echasene nobuqhetseba obuphuma kubathengi.
Ngaba i-Bitcoin isenokuya ku-zero?
Ngokomgaqo, ewe, kwaye andiyi kuzenza ngenye indlela. Isiphene esibalulekileyo seprothokholi, ikhefu kwi-cryptography esisiseko enokuthi uphuculo lungakwazi ukuphendula ngexesha, okanye ulungelelwaniso lolawulo lwehlabathi olwenza kube nzima ukuthengiselana kuya kwenza umonakalo wokwenyani. Akukho nanye kuzo ebonakala isemnyango. Inethiwekhi iqhube ngokuqhubekayo ukususela ngoJanuwari 2009 phantsi kohlaselo loluntu rhoqo. Obo bubungqina, ayisosiqinisekiso.
Kutheni abanye abatyali-mali abazimiseleyo besayibiza ngokuba liqamza?
Ngokuqhelekileyo ngenxa yokuba i-Bitcoin ayinayo ukuhamba kwemali, akukho mvuzo kwaye akukho mkhuphi ophakathi, ezizichaso ezifanelekileyo kuye nabani na oqeqeshelwe ukuxabisa i-asethi ngokunciphisa umvuzo wexesha elizayo. Kodwa i-Bitcoin ayikho ukulingana. Ukuqhuba imodeli ethotyiweyo yokuhamba kwemali kwi-asethi eyimali yimpazamo yodidi. Owona mbuzo ngowokuba ingaba iyasebenza na njengemali, hayi ukuba ingasinda na kwindlela yokuxabisa eyenzelwe iinkampani.