I-Bitcoin vs JSE Top 40 vs Property: I-10 yeminyaka yokuBuyisa uthelekiso kubatyalomali baseMzantsi Afrika
Xa abathengi bebuza ukuba ingaba iBitcoin ikwipotifoliyo enzulu, ndiyazama ukungaphenduli ndiqinisekile. Ndiphendula ngamanani. Eli nqaku lithelekisa ukuba zeziphi iindidi ezintathu ze-asethi ezinkulu ezifumanekayo kubemi baseMzantsi Afrika, izabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo, ipropathi kunye neBitcoin, eziziswe ngokwerandi ukusuka ku-2015 ukuya ku-2025.
Ukuthathwa okungundoqo
Kwiminyaka elishumi ukusuka ku-2015 ukuya ku-2025 i-Bitcoin ibuyele malunga ne-60,000% ngokwemiqathango yerandi. I-JSE Yonke iSabelo ihanjiswe malunga ne-130 ukuya kwi-150% kuquka izabelo. Indawo yokuhlala isondele ku-zero ngokwemiqathango yokwenyani nje ukuba ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuthathe isabelo sako. Akukho nanye kuloo nto iphikisanayo ngokuthengisa yonke enye into. Ixoxa ukuba ukungabandakanyi i-Bitcoin ngokupheleleyo sisikhundla esifuna ukukhuselwa ngoku, ukuba ulwabiwo lunobungakanani ukuze ukwazi ukuyibamba ngokutsalwa kwesiqingatha sexabiso layo.
La manani angezantsi luqikelelo lwedatha yembali, ekwabelwana ngayo kwimeko yemfundo. Imbuyekezo yangaphambili ayisiyo ingqikelelo ethembekileyo yokusebenza kwexesha elizayo. Uthelekiso lubonisa okwenzekayo kunokuba ucebise naluphi na utyalo-mali oluthile, kuba ulwabiwo olufanelekileyo luxhomekeke kwiimeko zakho, ukunyamezela kwakho umngcipheko kunye nexesha lakho.
Yintoni ebuyisiwe yiBitcoin ngerandi ukusuka ngowama-2015 ukuya kowama-2025
Imbali yexabiso lerandi yeBitcoin ngamabali amabini adibanayo. Eyokuqala yi-asethi ngokwayo eyixabisayo kwiimarike zehlabathi. Eyesibini yirandi ebuthathaka ngokwesakhiwo xa ithelekiswa nedola, nto leyo inyusa ixabiso lerandi kuyo yonke iasethi yemali enzima ngaphandle kokuba uBitcoin enze nantoni na kwaphela. Ukususela ngo-2015 ukuya ku-2025 imbuyekezo yedola ibimalunga nama-50,000% ngelixa imbuyekezo yerandi ibisondele kuma-60,000%. Umsantsa phakathi kwala manani mabini phantse kukuhla kwexabiso lemali, ukuvuza okucothayo endikubeke ngokufanelekileyo yintoni ilahleko yerandi eyi-70% ethetha ngayo kwiBitcoin.
Amanani akrwada kuqala. I-Bitcoin yarhweba malunga ne-R2,800 ngoJanuwari 2015. NgoJanuwari 2025 ixabiso lerandi laliphakathi kwe-R1.5 kunye ne-R1.8 yezigidi. Kuloo ndlela imbuyekezo yeminyaka elishumi ifika kwingingqi ye-60,000%, inani ukuza kuthi ga ngoku ngaphandle kwamava otyalo-mali aqhelekileyo abantu abaninzi bacinga ukuba yitypo.
Asiyondlela yokuchwetheza.
Iminyaka elishumi yayingeyonto ilula. I-Bitcoin yehle ngaphezulu kwe-40% ngokwemiqathango yerandi ukusuka kwincopho yayo ka-2021 ngaphambi kokuba iphinde ibuyele kumanqanaba amatsha. Umtyali-mali othenge ngoJanuwari 2021 kwaye wajonga ingxelo ngoJanuwari 2023 wayehleli kwilahleko kwaye mhlawumbi esonga i-ego egruzukileyo. Umtyali-mali obambe ukusuka ngoJanuwari 2015 ukuya kutsho ngoJanuwari 2025 wayeneshumi leminyaka elahluke kakhulu. Iqela lophando lwe-asethi yedijithali likaFidelity libeka inqaku elifanayo kulwimi lweziko: I-Bitcoin iye yaba yiklasi ye-asethi ephezulu kwi-11 kwiminyaka eyi-15 edlulileyo, idibanisa ngaphezu kwe-70% ngonyaka ngeedola kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo, kodwa iminyaka ephakathi equlethwe ukutsalwa okungqongqo ngokwaneleyo ukuba avuthulule nabani na ongazange anqume kwangaphambili ukuba ahlale.
Indlela iJSE eqhube ngayo kwiminyaka elishumi enye
I-JSE Yonke iSabelo ibuyele malunga ne-130 ukuya kwi-150% iyonke ukusuka kwi-2015 ukuya kwi-2025 kunye nezabelo ezibuyiselwe, ezisebenza malunga ne-8 ukuya kwi-10% ngonyaka. I-Top 40 yenza isambuku sexabiso leSabelo sonke, ngoko ke ezi zimbini zilandelana ngokusondeleyo. Eso siphumo sihambelana ngokubanzi nomndilili oqhutywa ixesha elide wezabelo zamashishini zaseMzantsi Afrika kwaye ndifuna ukuba nobulungisa kuyo, kuba ishumi leminyaka efunyenwe kuyo yayinoburhalarhume: ukuthotywa okuzimeleyo ukuya kwimeko yenkunkuma, ukuwohloka kwe-COVID ka-2020, ukuchithwa komthwalo kwinqanaba lemizi-mveliso kunye nomthengi phantsi koxinzelelo kulo lonke. Ukudibanisa kumanani aphezulu aphezulu kuyo yonke loo nto ngumboniso ohloniphekileyo.
Kukho iinkcukacha zokwakheka ezifanele ukuqondwa phambi kokuba ufake ityala kuqoqosho lwengingqi. Isabelo esikhulu sengeniso ye-JSE ayingoMzantsi Afrika kwaphela. Isalathiso silawulwa ziinkampani ezinengeniso ebonakalayo yangaphandle, kungoko xa iranti isenza buthathaka ixabiso lerandi lazo liyenyuka. Inxalenye yento ebonakala ngathi ukusebenza kwe-equity kule minyaka ilishumi ibikukuhla kwexabiso lemali enxibe isuti. Amashishini asekhaya azisa imali encinane. Ukukhula okwenzekileyo bekukho imali eninzi kunokwenyani. Ixabiso lemarike yekhulu leenkampani ezinkulu ze-JSE linyuke ukusuka kwi-R5,779 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2010 ukuya kwi-R15,151 yeebhiliyoni ngo-2020 ngelixa utyalo-mali olusisigxina kuqoqosho lokwenene ludodobala, umzekelo oosoqoqosho abawubiza ngokuba yimali. Amaxabiso ezabelo anyukile. Imizi-mveliso ayizange.
Ukunika imakethi yalapha ekhaya imfanelo yayo, ikhalenda ka-2025 ibingowona nyaka ungcono kakhulu ukusukela ngo-2005, iSabelo sonke sinyuke ngama-37.7% ngokwerandi kunye ne-55.3% yeedola. Iminyaka eyomeleleyo iyenzeka. Umbuzo ophendula uthelekiso lweminyaka elishumi ngowokuba iminyaka eyomeleleyo nebuthathaka yongezwa kuyo.
Ipropathi yaseMzantsi Afrika: iinzuzo ezingephi, ukudodobala kokwenyani
Ipropathi yendawo yokuhlala inikezele ngexabiso eliphakathi kwi-4 ukuya kwi-6% ngonyaka kule minyaka ilishumi, ngokusekwe kwizalathiso zepropati zebhanki ezinkulu. Indlu eyathengwa ngo-2015 yayixabisa imali eninzi ngo-2025 kwaye umniniyo wayeziva etyebile.
Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kuko okulonakalisayo ibali. Isixhobo sokufundisa se-Reserve Bank siphawula ukuba amaxabiso abathengi boMzantsi Afrika anyuke nge-65% phakathi kowama-2010 no-2020, umyinge we-5.2% ngonyaka. Ukwenyuka kwamaxabiso kufikelele kwi-5.5% kwishumi leminyaka ekuthethwa ngalo kwaye inani elongezelekayo lifikelela kuma-71%. Nayiphi na i-asethi eyabuya ngaphantsi kwe-71% kule minyaka ilishumi iphulukene namandla okuthenga. I-avareji yepropathi yesizwe incwase loo mqobo ngokwemiqathango yegama, into ethetha ukuba imbuyekezo yokwenyani ibisondele ku-zero okanye imbi kancinane kubanini abaninzi, ngokuxhomekeke kwindawo ekumi kuyo ipropati kunye nokuba ibiyintoni na.
Iminyaka yamva nje ithambile. Idatha ye-IMF yezezimali ephilileyo ibeka ukukhula kwexabiso lesizwe kwi-1.5% ngo-2023 kunye ne-0.8% ngo-2024, zombini ngokukhululeka ngaphantsi kokunyuka kwamaxabiso. Owona nyaka ubalaseleyo kolu ngcelele yayiyi-6.7% yokugxuma ngo-2021, eqhutywa yirekhoda-ephantsi yenzala yokutshixa. Imi yodwa kwidatha. Inombolo yesihloko nayo iyayihombisa i-asethi, kuba ayihoyi yonke into ehlawuliswa yipropati endleleni: ukudluliselwa kwerhafu ukuya, ukuphuma kwekhomishini ye-arhente, kunye neerhafu, iirhafu, ukugcinwa kunye nenzala yebhondi phakathi.
Bambalwa kakhulu abanini abakhe baqhube olobalo lupheleleyo. Abo benzayo badla ngokuzola.
Ibhodi yamanqaku yeminyaka elishumi
Amanani asasazwe ngeprozi kulula ukunqwala kunye. Zibeke kwindawo enye kwaye ukumila kweminyaka elishumi kuba nzima ukujonga kude. Nantsi into eyi-R100,000 ebekwe kwi-asethi nganye ngoJanuwari 2015 ibe ngoJanyuwari ka-2025, kusetyenziswa amanani aqikelelweyo angasentla.
| I-asethi | I-R100,000 yaba | Imbuyekezo eqikelelweyo |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin, ngerandi | Malunga nama-R60 ezigidi | Malunga nama-60,000% |
| JSE Sonke Isabelo, izabelo ziphinde zatyalwa | I-R230,000 ukuya kwi-R250,000 | I-130 ukuya kwi-150% iyonke |
| Ipropati yokuhlala, umyinge wesizwe | I-R148,000 ukuya kwi-R179,000 | Isi-4 ukuya kwisi-6% ngonyaka ngokwesiqhelo |
| Umqobo wokunyuka kwamaxabiso | I-R171,000 nje ukuma ngxi | Malunga ne-71% eyongezelekayo |
Uqikelelo lwamanani embali yomxholo wezemfundo, phambi kweendleko okanye iirhafu.
Indlela yokufunda uthelekiso ngokunyanisekileyo
Izinto ezintathu ezingcwatywe kwidatha zifanelwe ingqwalasela entle ngakumbi kunenombolo yentloko izenzela yona.
Eyokuqala yeyokuba ukuhla kwerandi kukhulise ngokuzolileyo yonke iasethi yemali enzima xa kuthelekiswa. Leyo ayiyompikiswano yeBitcoin malunga nezabelo okanye izabelo kwipropathi. Yingxoxo echasene nokugcina yonke imali oyilondolozileyo ngaphakathi komgaqo-lawulo wemali waseMzantsi Afrika, nokuba yiyiphi ingxubevange yee-asethi ozikhethayo.
Okwesibini kukuba ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin akusiyo i-footnote. Inani leminyaka elishumi lichaza indawo ekuyiwa kuyo kwaye alithethi nto malunga nendlela, ebandakanya iindawo apho isikhundla sasisezantsi nge-50% okanye i-60% kwaye yahlala apho ixesha elide ngokwaneleyo ukuvavanya ukugwetywa kwakhe nabani na. Ndibeka ezo zithintelo kwindawo yazo efanelekileyo Ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kumxholo. Isigqibo esisebenzayo sesokuba ubungakanani bendawo ayiyonkcukacha ozilungisayo kamva. Lutshintsho oluphambili oluthatha isigqibo sokuba uyalugqiba uhambo lweminyaka elishumi okanye uthengise kubusika besibini, yiyo loo nto ndipapashe incwadi isakhelo sokulinganisa indawo yeBitcoin ngaphambi kwayo nantoni na.
Okwesithathu kukuba isibheno sepropathi siyinto yokwenene ngeendlela itafile yokubuyisela ayinakubamba. Ungahlala kuyo. Ungayilungisa ngebhondi, ejika ukukhula kwexabiso eliphantsi libe yimbuyekezo eyamkelekileyo ye-equity xa iimali zisebenzisana. Idatha ayithethi ukuba ipropati ayinaxabiso. Ithi irekhodi lesizwe elihlanganisiweyo kule minyaka ilishumi lenze ivenkile engalunganga yexabiso, ibango elimxinwa neliluncedo ngakumbi.
Yiyiphi imbuyekezo ehlengahlengisiweyo yomngcipheko ithi ngeBitcoin
Inkcaso esemgangathweni kweli nqanaba kwincoko kukuba imbuyekezo ekrwada ayihoyi umngcipheko. Yinkcaso efanelekileyo kwaye inempendulo, kuba uphando lweziko luye lwadlulela kwi-eyeballing Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso. Kwingxelo yayo yowama-2026 ethi Ukufumana I-Off Zero, iqela le-asethi yedijithali ye-Fidelity lithelekise iiklasi ezinkulu ze-asethi ngaphezu kweefestile zeminyaka emihlanu kunye neshumi kwi-Sharpe kunye ne-Sortino ratios, imilinganiselo esemgangathweni yokubuyisela kwiyunithi nganye yomngcipheko. I-Bitcoin iphume iphezulu kumanyathelo omabini kuzo zombini iifestile. I-Ukuguquguquka kwexabiso yinyani. Iphinde yahlawulwa.
Ingxelo efanayo yenza inqaku elifihlakeleyo endilifumana likholisa ngakumbi kunetafile yeligi. Imbuyekezo yenyanga yeBitcoin skew ukuya ekunene, okuthetha ukuba iinyanga ezigqithisileyo zihlala ziphezulu kunaphantsi. Ukunyaniseka kukubiza ukuguquguquka okuhle. Ngokwemigaqo yepotfoliyo, ukongeza iBitcoin kwipotfoliyo ye-60/40 yaphucula imbuyekezo elungelelanisiweyo yomngcipheko nakwi-1%, kunye nokutsiba okukhulu phakathi kwe-1% kunye ne-3% yolwabiwo, ngelixa ukutsalwa okuphezulu akuhambanga ngokulambisa. Ulungelelwaniso oluphantsi kunye nempahla yemveli kunye nohlengahlengiso lonyaka wenze umsebenzi wokuqulatha.
Ukunyaniseka ke kuphinde kuqalwe kwakhona i-arithmetic kunye neengqikelelo zolondolozo ngabom, ukusika imbuyekezo elindelekileyo yeBitcoin ukuya kuma-25% ngonyaka ngokuchasene ne-14,5% yezabelo zamashishini ezingenanzala emisiweyo. Ubuninzi bepotfoliyo yomlinganiselo weSharpe isabambe i-9.4% yeBitcoin kwaye akukho bhondi kwaphela. Akukho mfuneko yokuba ulikholelwe elo nani ukuze uqaphele ukuba i-arithmetic yeziko yalatha kweliphi icala.
Kuthetha ukuthini oku kwipotfoliyo yaseMzantsi Afrika
Oku akuthethi ukuba uthengise iiyunithi trust zakho okanye udwelise indlu kwiPropati24. Ipotfoliyo eyikhulu leepesenti iBitcoin iphethe iprofayile yomngcipheko bambalwa kakhulu abantu abanokukhetha xa beqonda ukuba i-drawdowns ivakala njani ngaphakathi. I-Bitcoin nayo ayiyiyo ixesha elifutshane lokubamba kuyo nayiphi na imeko. Ndisebenza kubuncinci bembono yeminyaka emi-5 ukuya kweli-10, ihorizon efanayo apho wonke umzobo ungentla uxhomekeke kuwo. Umonde unerekhodi elingcono lalo naliphi na iqhinga endilaziyo kwaye ndibeka ubungqina kuyo kutheni ukubamba ixesha elide lelona qhinga lithembekileyo leBitcoin.
Oko kusekwa yirekhodi kukuba ngaphandle kweBitcoin ngokupheleleyo, ngezizathu zokuba kuqikelelwa kakhulu ukuba kungathathwa nzulu, ngoku kufuna ulungelelwaniso oluthile. Ngalo lonke ixesha lokubamba okuzinzileyo kwimbali yayo i-asethi isebenze ngaphezu kwayo yonke enye into umtyali-mali waseMzantsi Afrika ebenokuyithenga ngokusemthethweni, ngomda ongekho kufutshane. Abaphandi beFidelity bayibeka ngokucacileyo: umthwalo wobungqina utshintshele kwipotfoliyo yokwabiwa kwe-zero. Kummi waseMzantsi Afrika loo ngxabano ifika nzima kunaseBoston, kuba imali yethu ivuza ixabiso ngesantya abanini baseMelika abangaze bacinge ngayo.
Inqaku lokugqibela kwi-extrapolation, kuba isika iindlela zombini. Ishumi leminyaka leBitcoin libonise inqanaba elithile lokwamkelwa kunye nemvelaphi yemali evuza ii-asethi zonikezelo olusisigxina. Ishumi leminyaka le-JSE libonise imijikelo yempahla yorhwebo kunye nemali ephelelwa ngamandla. Iminyaka elishumi yePropati ibonakalise inzala kunye nenani labantu. Akukho nanye kuloo miqathango eqinisekisiweyo ukuba iya kuphinda. Ukusetyenziswa okunyanisekileyo kolu thelekiso ayikokujolisa phambili i-60,000%, nto leyo ekungekho mntu uzimisele ukuyenza. Kukuqaphela ukuba i-asethi uninzi lweepotfoliyo zoMzantsi Afrika ezikwiziro yeyona inerekhodi eyomeleleyo yeminyaka elishumi kuyo yomibini imiqathango ekrwada kunye nehlengahlengiso lomngcipheko, emva koko wenze isigqibo sokuba loluphi na ulwabiwo onokuphila nalo kunye nobukhulu balo apho.
Imibuzo ebuzwa qho
Kutheni iBitcoin yerandi ibuya ngaphezulu kwedola yayo?
Ngenxa yokuba imbuyekezo yerandi ibeka iintshukumo ezimbini phezu kwenye kwenye: ixabiso leBitcoin linyuka ngeedola kunye nerandi iyancipha xa ithelekiswa nedola. Ukusukela ngo-2015 ukuya ku-2025 imbuyekezo yedola yeBitcoin ibimalunga nama-50,000% ngelixa imbuyekezo yerandi ibisondele kuma-60,000%. Umsantsa phantse kukuhla kwexabiso lemali, amandla afanayo asebenza ngokuzolileyo kuyo yonke enye into ephethwe ngumZantsi Afrika.
Ingaba ipropathi yaseMzantsi Afrika ibambe isantya sokunyuka kwamaxabiso kule minyaka ilishumi idlulileyo?
Ngokubanzi, hayi. Ukukhula kwexabiso eliqhelekileyo kumndilili ojikeleze i-4 ukuya kwi-6% ngonyaka ngelixa ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kudibene malunga ne-71% kwiminyaka elishumi. I-avareji kazwelonke yasondela kulo mda ngaphandle kokuyicoca rhoqo, ngoko ke imbuyekezo yokwenyani ibikufutshane neqanda okanye imbi kancinane kubanini abaninzi. Umsebenzi wodluliselo, ikhomishini yearhente kunye neentlawulo zikamasipala zityhala inani lokwenyani libe phantsi.
Ngaba ipropathi ingaphezulu kwe-Bitcoin okanye izabelo ze-JSE?
Hayi, lolona lwelo luncinane kwezithathu ngomda obanzi. Ukuthengisa indlu ngokuqhelekileyo kuthatha iiveki ukuya kwiinyanga kwaye kubandakanya ikhomishini ye-arhente yesi-5 ukuya kwi-7% kunye neendleko zokutshintshela kunye nokuhanjiswa. I-Bitcoin kunye nezabelo ezidwelisiweyo zingathengiswa kwimizuzu ngexabiso lemarike. Ukuba kukho naliphi na ithuba lokwenyani uya kufuna inkunzi, loo mahluko awusomfundo.
Ngaba kufuneka ndithengise izabelo zam ze-JSE ukuze ndithenge i-Bitcoin?
Hayi njenge-reflex. Ukutshintsha kukhokelela kwirhafu enkulu kwinzuzo ye-equity kunye nokutshintshanisa ukwahluka koxinzelelo. Ndiyiphatha i-Bitcoin njengokongeza kwipotfoliyo endaweni yokutshintshwa kwayo. Uninzi lwabathengi bam bagcina i-equity yabo kunye nokuvezwa kwepropathi kwaye bakhe indawo yeBitcoin ecaleni kwayo, ubungakanani bokusinda kwi-50% yokutsalwa ngaphandle koloyiko.
Ngaba i-Bitcoin isabonakala ilungile xa ulungelelanisa umngcipheko?
Kwingxelo yembali, ewe. Uphando lwe-Fidelity luka-2026 luthelekisa iiklasi eziphambili ze-asethi ngaphezu kweefestile zeminyaka emihlanu kunye neshumi kwaye yafumanisa ukuba i-Bitcoin ithwele umlinganiselo ophezulu we-Sharpe kunye ne-Sortino kubo bonke, oku kuthetha ukuba ukuguquguquka kwakungaphezulu kwembuyekezo. Ukusebenza kwangaphambili akuthembisi nto. Ukubuyiselwa okuhlengahlengisiweyo kumngcipheko kulapho abagxeki bebelindele ukuba i-Bitcoin ingaphumeleli kwaye irekhodi libonisa ukuba ayiphumelelanga.
Iminyaka elishumi yedatha, isigqibo esinye sokuzola
I-SimplB inceda abemi baseMzantsi Afrika ubukhulu, bathenge kwaye bakhusele ulwabiwo lweBitcoin ngokuthobelayo, njengoMmeli woBugqwetha we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha umnxeba wokufunyanwa