Ukungaguquguquki kweBitcoin: Lokho Okuboniswa Irekhodi Empeleni
I-Bitcoin iphahlazeke ngaphezu kwezingxenye ezintathu kwezine ezikhathini ezine ezihlukene futhi yenza ukuphakama okusha kwezikhathi zonke ngemva kwesinye sazo. Lowo musho owodwa uyimpikiswano yonke. Ukuntengantenga kungokoqobo futhi kungaqeda ingxenye enkulu yemali yakho uma uthenga inani eliphakeme futhi udayise umkhombe, kodwa irekhodi lalokho elikukhiqizele abantu abamane bakubambe akuyona indaba yombono. Liyishadi, futhi ishadi likhomba indlela eyodwa kuphela.
Ukhiye wokuthatha
I-Bitcoin iguquguquka ngempela futhi ungalahlekelwa yimali yakho eminingi uthenga kabi futhi udayise kabi kakhulu. Kodwa asikho isikhathi sokubamba seminyaka emine emlandweni wayo esiphelile singesihle, ngisho nakumuntu othenge ingxenye ephezulu yomjikelezo. Beka lokho ngokumelene nokongiwa kwerandi, elinganyakazi usuku nosuku futhi buthule lilahlekelwe amandla okuthenga unyaka nonyaka, futhi impahla ethusayo iphenduke iphephe kakhulu emkhathizwe obala.
Bengilokhu ngikwenza lokhu eNingizimu Afrika kusukela ngo-2016, isikhathi eside ngokwanele ukuthi ngibuke imijikelezo emibili egcwele idlala ezikrinini zamaklayenti ahlezi ngaphesheya kwami. Inombolo abantu abayilungisayo ihlale iwukwehla. Cishe akekho obuza umbuzo wesibili, okuwukuphela kwawo okukhokhela izikweletu zakho: kwenzekeni ngokulandelayo.
Ukudonswa phansi kubi njengoba kuzwakala
Qala ngokuphahlazeka, ngoba bangempela futhi ngeke ngibathambise. NgoJuni 2011 i-Bitcoin yagijima yaya ku-$29.58 yabe isiwela ku-$2.14 ngoNovemba walowo nyaka, ukwehla okungama-93%. NgoNovemba 2013 ifinyelele ku-$ 1,127 ngaphambi kokuba yopha ifike ku-$ 172 ngoJanuwari 2015, cishe i-85% ihambile. UZibandlela wezi-2017 wakuthatha wasondela ku-$19,700 kwathi ngo-2018 wahudulela emuva ku-$3,200, ukuwa okungama-84%. Bese kuthi iningi lamakhasimende ami liphile ngale: $69,000 ngoNovemba 2021, kwehle laya cishe ku-$15,500 ngonyaka kamuva, ukwehla ngo-77.5%. Izikhathi ezine ezihlukene umuntu othenge abaphezulu ebukele iningi lemali yakhe inyamalala ephepheni ezinyangeni eziyishumi nambili ezilandelayo.
Lokho akukona ukumaketha okumayelana nokucwiliswa kwesikhashana. Irekhodi lomlando, futhi noma ubani othengisa i-Bitcoin kuwe ngaphandle kokuqamba lezo zinombolo ezine akaqondile nawe.
Ukulungisa kwakamuva kakhulu kusohlwini olufanayo, nakuba kuthambile. I-Bitcoin ifinyelele ku-$126,208 ngo-Okthoba 2025 futhi yehle yafika ezingeni eliphansi le-intraday lika-$59,800 ekuqaleni kukaFebhuwari 2026, okuwukwehla okungu-52.6%. Njengoba ngibhala, phakathi nalobo busika, ama-gauge okwesaba aphiniwe eduze nokuphansi kwawo futhi izilinganiso ezihambayo zikhomba phansi. Kuyindawo engakhululekile ukufunda indatshana efana nale. Futhi, uma irekhodi lisho noma yini, lijwayelekile.
Manje beka okutholakele eduze kokuphahlazeka
Nansi ingxenye igama elithi volatile yakhelwe ukwenza ukhohlwe. Ngemuva kokuphahlazeka kuka-2011 kuya ku-$2, i-Bitcoin ayizange ihlale ku-$2. Ifinyelele ngaphezu kuka-$1,000 ngasekupheleni kuka-2013. Ngemva kokwehla kuka-2015 eduze kwe-$172, ikhuphukele ku-$19,700. Ngemuva kwesitezi sika-2018 sama- $ 3,200, sasusa ama- $ 69,000. Umkhumbi ngamunye kwezintathu zokuqala wawuhlezi ngokunethezeka ngaphezu kwenani eliphakeme lomjikelezo we-euphoric. Iphansi lomjikelezo owodwa laliphakeme kunosilingi wowokugcina.
I-2022 ephansi ye- $ 15,500 iyona ehlukile ethembekile, engaphansi nje kokuphezulu kwe-2017 kwe- $ 19,700, futhi ngikusho kahle ngoba umuntu owenza le mpikiswano ngokwethembeka ubiza okuhlukile kunokuba akungcwabe. Ikhefu elilodwa ephethinini eliye lahlala iminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu.
Konke okunye kwavuka.
Buyela emuva ngokwanele futhi umsindo ufinyelela umugqa owodwa. Umjikelezo wokuqala ufinyelele ku-$31. Inani eliphakeme kakhulu lama-2025 lalingu-$126,208. Lokho cishe kuphindwe izikhathi eziyizinkulungwane ezine emijikelezweni emine yomsindo omkhulu, iningi lentengo yomphakathi etholakala kunoma iyiphi impahla eyake yadlula. Ukudonswa phansi akuzange kuwuphazamise lowo mkhondo. Ngandlela thize ayewumshini wawo, ukuthuntutha izinhlamvu zemali kubantu abathenga injabulo futhi bezinikeza abantu abathenge ukugwetshwa.
Asikho isikhathi seminyaka emine sokubamba esiphelile singesihle
Leli iqiniso elihlela kabusha yonke into, ngakho-ke ngifuna ukulisho ngokucophelela. Noma ubani othenge i-Bitcoin futhi wayibamba iminyaka emine akakaze aqede ukulahlekelwa. Hhayi kanye eminyakeni eyishumi nanhlanu, futhi lokho kufaka phakathi abantu abathenge ngesikhathi esibi kakhulu se-mania ngayinye.
Sebenza isibonelo. Thenga phezulu kwangempela kokugijima kwe-2017 ngoDisemba, eduze ne-$ 19,700, ukungena okukodwa okubuhlungu kakhulu okutholakala ngaleso sikhathi. Thengisa wethukile ezinyangeni ezimbalwa kamuva futhi ngabe ulahlekelwe cishe ngama-70%. Bambelela uDisemba 2020 esikhundleni salokho futhi ubusubuyile enzuzweni. Bamba izinyanga eziyisithupha ezedlule futhi isikhundla sasikhuphuke cishe ngo-200%. Ifasitela leminyaka emine lenze lokho elifushane elingakwazi ukukwenza: likuthwale umjikelezo ogcwele futhi liphume ngakolunye uhlangothi.
Ukuhlola okufanayo kusebenza kuwo wonke umthengi ophezulu kurekhodi. Iminyaka emine ibilokhu iyinde ngokwanele ukuthi ukuphakama okusha kwezikhathi zonke kufike futhi kuphakamise ngisho nokungena okunesikhathi esibi kakhulu ngaphezu kwamanzi. Leso akusona isithembiso ngekusasa futhi ngeke ngisigqokise njengesinye. Yilokho okwenziwe imijikelezo emine yokugcina, ngaphandle kokukhetha okukodwa.
Kungani iminyaka emine hhayi emibili
Isizathu sokuthi iminyaka emine ilokhu ibonakala akuyona inkolelo-ze. I-arithmetic eyakhelwe kuphrothokholi.
Cishe njalo emabhuloki angu-210,000, cishe njalo eminyakeni emine, izinga okwakhiwa ngalo izinhlamvu zemali ezintsha linqunywa phakathi. Abavukuzi bathola i-bitcoin entsha engu-50 ngebhulokhi ngayinye ngo-2009. Namuhla bathola i-3.125. Ukukhula kwezinsiza zonyaka kwehle kusuka ku-3.6% ngo-2016 kuya ku-1.8%, kwase ku-0.9% ngemva kokwehliswa kwesigamu ngo-2024, endleleni eya ku-0.45% ngo-2028 futhi kwaba yize cishe ngo-2140. U-Vijay Boyapati ukubeka kahle: amandla adonsela phansi anqanyulwa phakathi njalo eminyakeni emine ye-Bitcoin. Ukunikezwa akukwazi ukuphendula esicelweni, ngakho-ke igagasi ngalinye labathengi abasha lihlangabezana nokugeleza okunciphayo kwezinhlamvu zemali futhi intengo ukuphela kwevalvu yokusiza.
Leso sigqi sohhafu yingakho iwindi leminyaka emine lithatha isinqumo sokusindisa. Umkhathizwe weminyaka emibili ungakubophela kalula ngaphakathi kwesigaba sokudonsela phansi ngaphandle kwesikhathi sokululama. Umkhathizwe weminyaka emine uhlanganisa cishe umjikelezo owodwa ogcwele, okuyiso kanye isikhawu lapho irekhodi elihlale lixazulula khona kahle. Phusha uye eminyakeni eyishumi futhi usungaphezulu kakhulu komsindo womjikelezo kangangokuthi ukulungiswa okungama-50% akubhaliswanga emgqeni. Lona umbono ofanayo engiwubeke ngokugcwele kungani ukubamba isikhathi eside kuyisu elithembeke kakhulu le-Bitcoin, futhi yingakho ngiqondisa amakhasimende ekufinyeleleni isilinganiso sezindleko zamarandi kunokuzama ukuqagela phezulu.
Amajikijolo aya eba mancane
Kunephethini yesibili ezinambeni zokudonsela phansi okulula ukuyigeja kuze kube yilapho uzilandelanisa. Amaphesenti angamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye nantathu ngo-2011. Amaphesenti angamashumi ayisishiyagalombili nanhlanu ngo-2015. Amaphesenti angamashumi ayisishiyagalombili nane ngo-2018. Amaphesenti angamashumi ayisikhombisa nesikhombisa ngo-2022. Amaphesenti angamashumi amahlanu nantathu ekuqaleni kuka-2026. Imakethe yebhere ngayinye ithathe i-bite encane kunaleyo ngaphambili.
Akuyona inhlanhla leyo. Yilokho okwenzekayo lapho imakethe ikhula. Phakathi nokulungiswa kukaFebruwari 2026 ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin kwezinsuku ezingamashumi ayisishiyagalolunye kwaqaphela kwahlala eduze kwama-38, cishe uhhafu wezinga elibonwe emakethe yamabhere ka-2022 ngenkathi ingaphezu kuka-70. Isilinganiso se-Bitcoin-to-Igolide Ukuguquguquka kwentengo ratio secindezelwe saba cishe ku-1.5, okuphansi komlando, okusho ukuthi i-Bitcoin isiqala ukuhwebelana njengempahla evuthiwe ukuze ifane nenani elincane. Kuke kwaba nokunwebeka ngo-2023 lapho ukuntengantenga kwayo kuwela ngaphansi kwamasheya amakhulu aseMelika negolide, obekungacatshangwa ukuthi eminyakeni eyishumi edlule.
Ingxenye yalokho kuthulisa iwusayizi nje. Imakethe ebiza amathriliyoni ambalwa amadola ayikwazi ukusunduzwa idlanzana labadayisi ngendlela ezacile engenza ngayo ngo-2013. Ingxenye yayo ukufika kwezikhungo ezibambe i-Bitcoin futhi zibhale izinketho eziphikisana nayo ukuze zivune imali engenayo, evala ama-spikes ayingozi kakhulu futhi icindezele kancane kancane ukuguquguquka okushiwo. Imakethe ka-2013 yayiyimali encane eqhutshwa abahlanganyeli abambalwa. Okwanamuhla kungokunye. Ngibeke ama-mechanics alokho okuvuthwa ngokugcwele Ukuguquguquka kwe-Bitcoin komongo, nokuthi kungani ukushintshashintsha kuyisici sokutholwa kwentengo kunokuba kube nenkinga okushiwo ukuguquguquka kweBitcoin empeleni.
Kusho ukuthini lokhu kumhlengi waseNingizimu Afrika
Ukuqhathanisa kwangempela akukaze kube yi-Bitcoin ngokumelene nengozi ye-zero. I-Bitcoin uma iqhathaniswa nenye ongayibamba, iningi labantu baseNingizimu Afrika okuyirandi ku-akhawunti yokonga.
IRandi alisuki kolunye usuku liye kolandelayo. Lokho kuzwakala kuphephile futhi kuwukucabanga okungalungile, ngoba i-Reserve Bank ihlose ukugcina ukwehla kwamandla emali phakathi kuka-3 no-6%, okuyindlela ehloniphekile yokusho ukuthi le mali yakhelwe ukulahlekelwa amandla ayo okuthenga kancane njalo ngonyaka ngamabomu. Ekuphileni kwami lenze okuningi kakhulu kunokuncane. Owonga imali eGeorge noma eGoli ebuka imali yabo ishwabana buthule akakhethi phakathi kwenjabulo nokuphepha. Bakhetha ukuthi yikuphi ukuguguleka okufanele kwamukele: uhlobo olunomsindo, olubonakalayo oluhlale lululama phakathi neminyaka emine, noma uhlobo oluthule, olunokwethenjelwa olungasoze lwabuna. I-Ukuguquguquka kwentengo inkokhelo oyikhokhayo ukuze ubalekele i-ice cube encibilikayo. Ukuzola kuyinkokhelo oyikhokhayo ukuze uhlale ngaphakathi kuyo.
Iphutha elikhulu engilibonayo wukuphatha ukuntengantenga njengokungazinzi. Akuyona. Kuyindlela ubunikazi obudlula ngayo busuka ezandleni ezingenasineke buyiswe kwesinesineke, futhi isikhathi ngasinye buba njalo, isisekelo sababambeli besikhathi eside siba namandla kancane bese sidonsela phansi kancane kancane. Leyo yiyo yonke indaba yezinombolo zokuphahlazeka ezinciphayo ngenhla.
Akukho kulokhu okusizayo uma uthenga phezulu, uvalo phansi futhi udayise. Irekhodi liklomelisa kuphela umuntu obambe umjikelezo wonkana, okusho ukuthi umsebenzi ongokoqobo wenza ukubamba kuqhubeke: inani ongeke ulidinge iminyaka, iphethini yokuthenga engancikile esikhathini kanye nelungelo lokuhlala osilawulayo empeleni ukuze ukuphahlazeka kungalokothi kuphoqe isandla sakho. Leyo ngxenye yokugcina akuyona inketho. Uma i-Bitcoin izochitha unyaka phansi ngo-50% ngenkathi usalindile, izinhlamvu zemali bekungcono zibe kwenye indawo lapho kungekho ukwehluleka kokushintshanisa noma ukwethuka okungafinyelela, okuyisona sizathu sonke engizakhele sona. I-Vault ngendlela engenze ngayo.
Uma ufunde le kude phakathi kokudonsela phansi, ubuza umbuzo wesibili olungile. Ukuguqula lelo rekhodi libe icebo ongalibamba kuyingxoxo emfushane. Bhukha ikholi yesakhiwo seBitcoin futhi ngizokwakha eyodwa eduze komkhathizwe wakho hhayi izihloko zezindaba.
Imibuzo ejwayelekile ukubuzwa
Kukangaki i-Bitcoin iphahlazeke ngaphezu kuka-80%?
Izikhathi ezintathu, ngokuvala okwesine ngemuva. I-Bitcoin yehle cishe ngo-93% ngo-2011, ngama-85% ekuqaleni kuka-2015, ama-84% kuya ku-2018 kanye nama-77.5% ngasekupheleni kuka-2022. Ukulungiswa kwakamuva kakhulu, kusuka ku-$126,208 ngo-Okthoba 2025 kuya cishe ku-$59,800 ngoFebhuwari 2026, bekungashoni kakhulu cishe ku-53%, okuhambisana nokuthambekela okude kokuphahlazeka okuba nzima kakhulu njengoba imakethe ikhula.
Kuyini ukwehla kwe-Bitcoin futhi kungani kubalulekile?
Cishe njalo emabhuloki angu-210,000, cishe njalo eminyakeni emine, inethiwekhi inciphisa ngohhafu umvuzo okhokhelwa abavukuzi ngokungeza amabhulokhi. Lokho kwehlisa izinga lokutholakala okusha. Ukukhishwa konyaka kwehle kusuka ku-3.6% ngo-2016 kuya ku-0.9% ngemva kokwehliswa kwesigamu sika-April 2024, endleleni eya ku-zero cishe ngo-2140. Ngenxa yokuthi ukunikezwa akukwazi ukuphendula esidingweni, ukugeleza okunciphayo kwezinhlamvu zemali ezintsha ezihlangabezana nesidingo esikhulayo sekwandulele ngokomlando ukwenyuka kwentengo okukhulu kweBitcoin.
Ingabe kuyiqiniso ukuthi akekho olahlekelwe yimali ebambe i-Bitcoin iminyaka engu-4?
Njalo iminyaka emine yokubamba isikhathi emlandweni weBitcoin siphelile, kufaka phakathi abatshalizimali abathenge inani eliqondile lomjikelezo wezinkunzi. Umuntu othile othenge okuphezulu kukaDisemba 2017 eduze kuka-$19,700 ubuyele enzuzweni ngoDisemba 2020 futhi wenyuka cishe ngo-200% ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ngemva kwalokho. Leli irekhodi elingaphezu kweminyaka eyishumi nanhlanu nemijikelezo eminingi, akusona isiqinisekiso semiphumela yesikhathi esizayo.
Ngizivikela kanjani ekuthengeni phezulu komjikelezo?
Ukulinganisa izindleko zamarandi kususa isidingo sokubeka isikhathi sokungena kwakho. Ngokuthenga inani elingaguquki ngezikhathi ezithile uzithenga ngokuzenzakalelayo ngaphezulu uma intengo iphansi futhi incane uma iphezulu. Imataniswe nomkhathizwe obuncane obuyiminyaka emine kanye nelungelo lokugcina olilawulayo, leyo ndlela ixazululwe kahle ngokomlando kungakhathaliseki ukuthi wawuqala nini umjikelezo. Bhukha ikholi yesakhiwo seBitcoin ukumisa eyodwa.
Bamba i-Bitcoin ngomjikelezo, kahle.
I-SimplB isiza abantu baseNingizimu Afrika ukuthi bathenge, bavikele futhi bahlele i-Bitcoin ngendlela ehambisanayo, njengoMmeleli Wezomthetho we-CAEP Asset Managers (FSP 33933).
Bhukha ikholi yokutholwa